Mexico Economy Stalls, Bolstering March Rate Cut Forecasts - BNN Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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Mexico Economy Stalls, Bolstering March Rate Cut Forecasts – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s economy barely grew in the fourth quarter, bolstering the chances that the central bank will join the regional trend for interest rate cuts as soon as next month. 

Official data released Thursday showed gross domestic product expanded 0.1% in the October-December period compared to the previous quarter, as manufacturing and construction activity contracted. The result was in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

From the same period a year earlier, GDP grew 2.5%. For the whole year, output expanded 3.2%. 

Mexico is the only major inflation-targeting economy in Latin America that has yet to start cutting interest rates, and a benchmark interest rate at 11.25% is constraining consumer demand. The weak growth, combined with a bigger-than-expected drop in the inflation rate this month, should allow the central bank to start monetary within weeks, said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs.

“Softer growth and progress on the inflation front should allow the central bank to cut a quarter percentage point in March,” Ramos said. “More likely we are now shifting to a path of more moderate growth.”

The agricultural sector shrank 0.1% in the fourth quarter, as did the secondary sector that includes manufacturing and construction, as government spending on some major projects started to slow. The services sector grew 0.3%, compared to much more robust performance earlier in the year.

Economists in the most recent Citibanamex survey see Mexico’s GDP expanding 2.4% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. 

“This is evidence of strong economic deceleration toward the end of the year, and the trend doesn’t look like it’s going to change,” said Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero Base, speaking before the report was published. 

In a seperate report on Thursday, the statistics agency said that annual inflation slowed to 4.45% in early February, a bigger drop than forecast by all 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. 

Read more: Mexico’s Inflation Eases Past Estimates, Boosting Rate Cut Odds

Mexico is heavily dependent upon the US — its No. 1 trade partner and the source of much of the cash that immigrants send home — and presidential elections in both countries this year introduce a host of political variables to economic forecasts.

–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.

(Updates with analyst comments from fourth paragraph)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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