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Mexico's economy has worst quarter since Great Depression – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Anthony Esposito

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy in the second quarter declined the most since the Great Depression, despite partially recovering from the depths in June, as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered factories, kept shoppers and tourists at home and upended trade.

Gross domestic product fell 17.1% in seasonally adjusted terms in the April-June period from the prior quarter, data from the national statistics agency showed Wednesday. Compared with the same quarter last year, GDP contracted 18.7%.

“Data for the second quarter confirms the Mexican economy had its worst quarterly decline of the last eight decades, after the crash in 1932 caused by the Great Depression,” said Alfredo Coutino, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Fiscally conservative President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has resisted pressure to borrow to support the economy, while picking fights with businesses that have chilled the investment climate. But he insists Mexico is on the right track.

“We’re already recovering, workers are already being rehired and we’re going to get out of this without getting over-indebted,” Lopez Obrador told a regular news conference.

The pandemic, which has infected 568,621 people and killed 61,450 in Mexico, has hit the Mexican economy harder than those of its Latin American peers “due to the healthcare system’s lack of preparation and the absence of stimulus measures to mitigate the effects on companies and families,” said Coutino.

By contrast, in Latin America’s largest economy, Brazil, GDP is forecast to have decreased by 9.4% in the second quarter as President Jair Bolsonaro launched a fiscal spending program to deal with the impact of COVID-19.

In a positive sign, Mexican economic activity advanced 8.9% in June from May, apparently confirming Lopez Obrador’s estimates the economy “hit bottom” in April and May. But the economy still contracted 13.2% from June 2019.

A breakdown of the adjusted quarterly GDP data showed primary activities slipped 2.0%, secondary activities plummeted 23.4% and tertiary activities contracted 15.1%.

Primary activities include farming and fishing, secondary activities comprise manufacturing, mining and construction, and tertiary activities cover retail and the services sector.

Mexico’s economy is forecast to shrink by up to 10% or more this year, in what the finance ministry and the central bank have said would be the worst recession since the 1930s.

(Reporting by Anthony Esposito and Miguel Angel Gutierrez; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Steve Orlofsky)

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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