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Mexico's economy in 2020 suffers worst slump since Great Depression – The Guardian

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By Dave Graham

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexico’s economy last year suffered its biggest annual contraction since the 1930s, although it recovered better than expected from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic during the final quarter, preliminary data showed on Friday.

Gross domestic product in Latin America’s second-biggest economy tumbled by 8.5% last year in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the preliminary estimate issued by national statistics agency INEGI. The fall was slightly shallower than the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll for an 8.8% decline.

Still, the contraction was the sharpest since 1932 during the Great Depression, data published by the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) show. And the economy has recently faced fresh headwinds due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

During the second half of 2020, the economy made up much of the ground lost to the pandemic, and an unexpectedly robust performance in the October-December period helped lift the peso against the dollar early on Friday.

But the economy remains a major challenge for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose efforts to strengthen the state’s hand in the energy market have led to disputes with businesses and upset Mexico’s allies, chilling investment.

The second quarter bore the brunt of economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, before a sharp increase in infections towards the end of 2020 led to renewed commercial restrictions in the Mexico City metropolitan area before Christmas.

That is expected to dent the recovery in early 2021, which has seen deaths from coronavirus hitting record levels. Lopez Obrador himself contracted COVID-19 this month.

During the final three months of 2020, GDP advanced by 3.1% from the previous quarter in adjusted terms, beating the prediction for 2.8% growth seen in a Reuters poll.

Nikhil Sanghani, an economist at Capital Economics, said the figures for the fourth quarter meant that Mexico had recouped more than 70% of its losses from the first half of 2020.

“However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases will cause the recovery to grind to a halt in Q1,” he said.

A breakdown of the unadjusted 2020 GDP figures showed manufacturing took the biggest hit last year. Secondary activities, which encompass factory output, fell by 10%, while tertiary activities, which include services, declined by 7.7%.

By contrast, primary activities such as farming, fishing and forestry, rose by 2.0% from 2019, the data showed.

The latest data also showed that 2020 was the second year running in which the economy went backwards. In 2019, the economy shrank by 0.1% in unadjusted terms, INEGI said.

Manufacturing activity has bounced back quickly from the depths of the slump, but companies are still wary about investing in new factories, buildings and machinery.

In the ten months through October, which is the latest data available, gross fixed investment was down by 19.5% compared with the same period in 2019, INEGI data show.

Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a client note that the outlook remained challenging for Mexico, though the rollout of a vaccination program would help the recovery.

“Firmer U.S. growth, stronger terms of trade, and additional moderate monetary policy easing should leverage the recovery,” Ramos said. “With the better than expected fourth quarter 2020 print we now expect real GDP growth to firm to 4.0% in 2021.”

(Reporting by Dave Graham; additional reporting by Abraham Gonzalez; editing by Jason Neely, Barbara Lewis and Nick Macfie)

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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