When The Vancouver Sun invited me to write another year-end outlook column, I immediately wondered whether any of my 2022 predictions had come true. After all, while it is easy to make predictions, the past few years have taught us how difficult it is to get them right.
Last year, some of my predictions turned out to be correct, but many were incredibly wrong.
While I did not expect expanded speculation and vacancy taxes, there was a growing acceptance that streamlining provincial and municipal approval procedures would reduce housing costs. I even created a holiday greeting card offering ideas for the Twelve Days of Christmas, describing how governments could improve development approval procedures.
Although I was wrong about the speculation and vacancy tax — which was, surprisingly, expanded to 13 more communities, including Parksville and Qualicum Beach — the provincial government appeared to have adopted many of the suggestions in my humble holiday greeting card.
It overhauled municipal planning and approval procedures by eliminating the need for many rezonings and public hearings. It even put an end to “let’s make a deal” community amenity contributions — negotiated and charged to developers for things such as community centres, daycares and parks, but passed on to homebuyers and renters.
More significantly, the province passed legislation allowing “missing middle” small-scale, multi-housing on most single-family lots throughout the province. I did not expect legislation of this scope, nor do I expect to see many multi-family homes on single-family lots in the coming year either in Vancouver or around the province.
For one thing, too many details still need to be worked out, including reconciling the province’s latest policy directives and existing municipal zoning regulations. There is also a need to determine how best to fund the required upgrades to municipal services and community amenities.
While many municipal politicians and planners are worried the province is taking over their historic planning functions, I expect municipalities will continue to play the major role in regulating new developments. After all, if the municipal engineer determines there is insufficient sewer capacity in an area, multi-housing projects will not proceed.
Last year, I predicted that in 2023, we could expect to see greater interest in “mass timber” construction and offsite manufactured housing. This turned out to be correct.
Many are discovering that manufactured housing is faster, quality-controlled, less wasteful, and more energy efficient. Factory construction can also help address the province’s severe shortage of skilled construction labour. Since the federal government is dreaming of building 3.5 million new homes across Canada by 2030, expect even more applications of factory construction in the years to come.
While I am pleased to see minimum parking requirements eliminated, I do not expect many projects to proceed without parking. Although car-sharing opportunities are increasing, and public transit is improving, many of us cannot get by without our cars. As people start bickering over limited on-street parking, developers and homebuilders will still need to provide off-street parking if they want to attract buyers to new homes.
In several year-end forecasts, I have promoted home-sharing as a partial solution to our housing crisis. After all, it is estimated that 18 per cent of all Metro Vancouver bedrooms are empty at a time when there is a severe shortage of affordable rental accommodation.
Last year, I wrote about home-share websites that matched seniors with other seniors or students, or other household pairings. So, I was pleased to read Vancouver Sun reporter Lori Culbert’s recent story describing how home-sharing can benefit both tenants and homeowners struggling with a high mortgage.
The article reported that listings for shared accommodation increased 42 per cent year-over-year. Where past listings featured people looking for a roommate, now more listings are homeowners looking to fill spare rooms. And some landlords are even posting ads for people to share an apartment.
I am currently working on an affordable North Shore housing project in which most apartments feature a flexible design so they can be shared by unrelated people. Many living rooms are designed to become bedrooms at night, as is customary in many homes worldwide.
So, what about future home prices and rents?
Last year, I observed that notwithstanding ambitious federal immigration targets, most analysts expected home prices to decline in 2023 but not crash. However, rents would continue to rise since many approved projects would not proceed — due to higher construction costs and interest rates — and would be put on the back burner.
As we approach 2024, many British Columbians, especially the hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing mortgage renewals, are worried about future interest rates, house prices and rental costs.
During the past month, I have been studying economists’ predictions for the coming year. Other than agreeing that interest rates are not likely to increase, there appears to be little consensus.
From my perspective as someone involved in residential development, given the shortage of skilled labour and higher construction costs, combined with ever-increasing municipal fees and charges, I expect new housing will be more expensive to build.
Sadly, not only will this result in higher prices and rents for new homes, but it will also inflate existing home prices and rents since, as we have witnessed over recent years, a rising tide lifts all boats.
On this depressing note, let me wish you a happy holiday season and a more peaceful and affordable 2024.
Michael Geller is an urban planner, real estate consultant and property developer. He serves on the adjunct faculty of SFU’s Centre for Sustainable Development and School of Resource and Environmental Management. His blog can be found at gellersworldtravel.blogspot.ca.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
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