For Premier Doug Ford, there’s more at stake in Thursday’s provincial byelection in Milton than just one seat at Queen’s Park.
While a byelection win or loss won’t change the status of any party in the majority-PC Legislature, the results in Milton will tell Ford, his opponents and all their political organizers plenty about the challenges they’ll face in the run-up to the next provincial election campaign two years from now.
“Normally I would say that you can’t read too much into byelections,” said Andrew Perez, a Liberal strategist, in an interview. “In this case, I think this byelection in Milton is critical.”
Andrew Brander, a Conservative strategist, says the vote comes at a critical time for the Ford government.
“The reason why I think [the byelection] matters is Milton is an exceptional microcosm of the GTA,” said Brander, who managed three successful federal campaigns in the riding for former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt.
Here are five reasons why you should pay attention to what happens in Milton, even if you don’t live there.
1. It’s the 905
The path to power in Ontario leads through the 905, made up of the regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham. For the last eight straight provincial elections, the party that won the most seats in this part of the Greater Toronto Area formed government.
The PC dominance of the 905 was one of the most notable features of the 2022 election. Ford’s party captured 28 of its 29 ridings, with the NDP’s win in Oshawa as the only exception.
Both politically and mathematically, it will be almost impossible for any party to defeat the PCs in the next election (scheduled for June 2026) without prying away a healthy chunk of these seats.
The results today in Milton could be seen as a sample of how 905 voters are feeling midway through Ford’s second term as premier.
Polling suggests the Liberals are competitive in Milton and Perez says voter sentiment in neighbouring ridings is likely similar. “I think that’s promising for our party,” he said.
For the Official Opposition New Democrats, who have long struggled to win anywhere in the 905 outside of Brampton and Oshawa, the results will send a message to Marit Stiles’s party about how much further it needs to go to have a realistic shot at forming government.
Around 98,000 people are eligible to vote in the Milton byelection. (Mehrdad Nazarahari/CBC)
2. It’s a challenge for Doug Ford
The byelection was forced by Ford’s former minister of red tape reduction, Parm Gill, jumping ship to become the candidate for Pierre Poilievre’s federal Conservative Party.
Milton has clearly been on Ford’s mind of late. He held a news conference in the riding in mid-April to announce expanded GO Transit service. He held a news conference on Tuesday to re-announce a 2025 start date for construction of Highway 413, which would link Milton to Vaughan.
Ford also opposed the Speaker’s ban on the Palestinian keffiyeh scarf in the Legislature, which some political commentators connected to the number of Muslim voters in the riding.
“All of these things speak to the lengths that the premier is willing to go to cater to the voters of Milton,” said Brander.
If Ford’s party fails to hold on to the seat, Brander says that could make PC MPPs from other ridings in the region worry about their political futures, and reconsider whether they want to seek re-election in 2026.
Premier Doug Ford came to Milton during the byelection campaign to announce expanded GO Transit service around the Greater Toronto Area. (Tara Walton/The Canadian Press)
3. It’s a test for Bonnie Crombie
Thursday’s byelection in Milton (along with the simultaneous bylection in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, a riding that the PCs have held for four straight elections) is the first ballot box test for Bonnie Crombie since she became leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in December.
As the former mayor of Mississauga, Crombie’s presence as leader should in theory boost the Liberals’ fortunes elsewhere in the 905.
The Liberals came close in Milton in 2022, losing by just four percentage points, despite the party’s dismal showing provincewide under leader Steven Del Duca.
So if the party can’t win this byelection under Crombie, said Brander, “I think that’s that’s a bit of a warning sign for the Liberals.”
The PCs have ramped up their attack ads targeting Crombie since the byelection campaign began, including TV spots airing during Toronto Maple Leafs playoff games.
Given the extent of the PC advertising salvo, Perez says even a closely-fought loss will indicate that Crombie has given momentum to the Liberals as their new leader.
Thursday’s byelections are the first since Bonnie Crombie won the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party in December. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)
4. Its issues resonate
Issues that matter a lot to voters in the suburban, commuter-heavy riding of Milton — such as housing, the cost of living, transportation — tend to be issues that voters care about in many ridings around the GTA.
“These are all issues that the premier and the PC caucus have been speaking to very clearly,” said Brander. “If they can’t hold on to a riding like Milton where those issues are supposed to resonate so well, then that has to be somewhat concerning for the premier.”
The hyper-local issue that has generated the most debate during the byelection is a proposed quarry near Campbellville, in the northwest corner of Milton. There’s always the possibility for such a controversy to motivate just enough voters to swing the result in a close race.
Milton has been a swing riding in the last three elections, with the PCs winning it in 2018 and 2022, while the Liberals took its predecessor riding of Halton when Kathleen Wynne led the party to victory in 2014.
Highway 413 would cut across the northwestern part of the GTA from Highway 400, seen here, to Highway 401 in Milton. (Patrick Morrell/CBC News)
5. It could reveal a trend
The PCs haven’t won any of the four Ontario byelections held since the party romped to its second majority in 2022.
Admittedly, three of those seats were previously held by other parties. But last July’s loss of Kanata-Carleton, a seat vacated by former cabinet minister Merrilee Fullerton — coupled that same day with the failure of former Toronto city councillor Gary Crawford to take Scarborough-Guildwood from the Liberals — stung Ford’s party.
The loss of another former cabinet minister’s seat in Milton could start to look like a disappointing trend for the Tories.
Both Brander and Perez predict Thursday’s race will be close, and say each party’s ability to get voters to the polls could make a difference, given the low turnout that byelections typically muster.
The candidates in Milton for the four parties with seats in the legislature are:
NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
