It’s hard to believe we’re back here in panic land again so soon in Toronto.
Although maybe it shouldn’t be.
There’s been a tendency early this season by some to write the Maple Leafs struggles off as a redux version of what happened last year, when they started slow and then played at a 119-point pace from Nov. 1 onwards.
Only Colorado was better over that stretch.
There are a number of differences between that slow start and this one, however. For one, Auston Matthews isn’t coming off a significant surgery. For another, goaltending hasn’t really been the issue the way it was a year ago, when Michael Hutchinson was for some reason still starting games.
Even more significantly, I would argue, the Leafs have faced a very weak schedule — one of the easiest leaguewide so far — and their underlying results in terms of puck possession and expected goals have been extremely mediocre.
They’re not scoring. They’re not defending well. They’re not controlling play and simply getting unlucky. They’re just really, to put it charitably, meh right now.
The easy portion of the Leafs’ schedule is effectively over as of this weekend, too, with a back-to-back against Boston and Carolina looming. The rest of the way, the Leafs have one of the most difficult runs of any team.
If they can’t fix some of what ails them relatively quickly, major changes are going to be needed.
That’s not really news if you’re following the latest firestorms here in the city. Various media outlets and betting sites have had Sheldon Keefe on the hot seat from the start of the campaign, and this latest four-game losing streak has only dialled that talk up to 11.
And I get it. The coach is often the first to go in situations like this. They’re more disposable than stars making a lot of money, especially in a tight cap environment where roughly two-thirds of the league is either into long-term injured reserve or within a half million of the $82.5 million ceiling.
Keefe hasn’t been perfect in his tenure with the Leafs, but he has a .669 points percentage — one of the highest in league history — and led them to a 115-point campaign a year ago. He also isn’t responsible for a lot of the mess on the roster, including the lack of scoring options in the bottom six and the lack of defensive depth with Jake Muzzin, Timothy Liljegren and Jordie Benn all out.
I believe they should give him more time to right the ship. And they should give him more to work with, too.
This brings us to the main alternative to firing the coach in early November — a trade.
While the start of the season isn’t the best time to be scouring the NHL’s trade market, and the Leafs are going to be dealing from a position of weakness given their losing skid, GM Kyle Dubas does have one thing in his favour. With Muzzin on LTIR — quite possibly for the rest of the season based on what I’m hearing — Toronto can put a large portion of his $5.625 million salary to work on the open market.
Some of that will have to be allocated to Liljegren, who just played a couple of games with the Marlies on the weekend as part of a rehab assignment. But even in a worst-case scenario, the Leafs will have an extra $4 million in financial flexibility, something that the vast majority of the teams likely in the playoff race simply do not.
In a best-case scenario, Dubas could look to trade some of his underperforming players as part of any move, freeing up even more salary room.
Some of the top candidates to go to shake things up could include Justin Holl ($2 million), Pierre Engvall ($2.25 million), Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5 million) or Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1 million).
If they keep losing, perhaps some even bigger names are in the mix.
Even without subtracting a significant roster piece, however, the Leafs are now in a position to be players for a difference maker in a deal — assuming that some of what they give up is made up of prospects or picks.
(D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)
Jakob Chychrun is one name out there, although given he’s almost exclusively played the left side and with his recent injury history, there are some buyer-beware factors there. (The asking price from the Coyotes is also sky high.)
John Klingberg is an interesting idea, with the Ducks in freefall. He is only on a one-year deal and could help with Toronto’s puck-moving issues on the right side.
Other pending UFA types the Leafs could target? Vladislav Gavrikov in Columbus is very intriguing, given how strong he is defensively. Damon Severson, Scott Mayfield, Shayne Gostisbehere, Dmitry Kulikov, Justin Braun, Kevin Shattenkirk and Troy Stecher are all potential rentals, too, and all of them can play the right side.
Defence is top of mind with how badly some of the Leafs blueliners are wobbling, but they could also deploy their cap space to find scoring help for the bottom-six forward group or try to add another goaltender to upgrade on third-stringer Erik Kallgren.
With the injuries they’ve had early on, the Leafs have been icing a lineup that is making $10 million or so under the cap on some nights. Recouping at least some of that by spending Muzzin’s salary is going to be vital within the coming months.
The Leafs have had some luck making these midseason deals and getting a shot in the arm, going back to when they added Muzzin almost four years ago. They also acquired Jack Campbell in a similarly tricky situation and beefed up their blue line twice a year ago by bringing in Ilya Lyubushkin and Mark Giordano.
It can be done.
But in addition to improving the roster, the other positive about going the trade route is the message that it sends, especially if it involves sending out a long-time teammate, even someone who plays down the lineup. The message is, in part, that the Leafs aren’t going to simply fire the coach at the first sign of trouble.
It’s also a message that more deals could be coming, should they continue to falter.
Because, frankly, this very much looks like a group of players who could use some of that outside motivation.
(Top photo of Leafs sadness: Debora Robinson / NHLI via Getty Images)
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