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Model shows how many COVID-19 infected travellers could arrive at U.S. border in Ontario – Globalnews.ca

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As the United States continues to grapple with an influx of new cases of the novel coronavirus, many are questioning when the Canada-U.S. border could potentially reopen to non-essential travel.

In a series of tweets on Friday, Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, provided an illustration of how many COVID-19 infected travellers could arrive at the Canada-U.S. border in Ontario, depending on the rates of infection in the U.S. and how many travellers are crossing overall.

The model offers insight into how far the coronavirus case count in the U.S. would need to drop in order to safely reopen the border.

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In the tweets, Tuite said currently the number of people crossing the Canada-U.S. border into Ontario is low, probably fewer than 1,000 to 5,000 a day.

On Saturday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reported 74,818 new cases of COVID-19.

Tuite said if Ontario sees a thousand travellers a day at the U.S. border, approximately two of those people will be infected with COVID-19.

“And then if you increase that to 10,000 travellers every day we expect, on average, 17 people arriving that were infected with COVID,” Tuite told Global News.

Read more:
Canada, U.S. extend border closure agreement until Aug. 21

She said about one-third of those cases would be symptomatic when they arrive at the border.

“So those ones you would potentially identify just by a border screening and asking people to identify that they had symptoms,” she said.

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The other two-thirds of cases would either be in the incubation period or would be presymptomatic or asymptomatic.

“And for those cases, the biggest control that we have is quarantine,” Tuite explained.

Currently, anyone entering Canada must comply with a mandatory 14-day quarantine period.

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Those who arrive in the country who are unable to prove they have a viable isolation plan will be taken by officials from the Public Health Agency of Canada to a facility to do so.






8:11
Should Canadians be concerned with surging COVID-19 cases south of the border?


Should Canadians be concerned with surging COVID-19 cases south of the border?

Tuite said if people are adhering to the rules, then the infected travellers “shouldn’t be an issue.”

“The challenge is that if they’re not in compliance with those quarantine measures, then any of those cases could potentially spark a small outbreak,” she explained.

In the series of tweets, Tuite wrote that once the case burden in the U.S. declines to between 1,000 to 10,000 infections per day, Canada can ease border restrictions while keeping the imported case numbers low.

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But, she said it’s “really hard to predict” when that could be.

Tuite said in April and May it seemed as though things might be under control in the U.S., but that the country is seeing a spike in new cases again.

“So I don’t think you can really put a timeline on it,” she said.

For now, Tuite said she thinks it is safest that the border remains closed to non-essential travellers.

“This [model] is looking at the number of cases reported each day,” she said. “Multiply that over the course of a month and you’re talking about a lot of potential cases arriving,” she said.

“And even with good adherence to quarantine and screening, you only need one or two of those cases to not comply, to potentially be associated with a super spreader event and really set off a much larger outbreak,” she continued.

Should Canadians be travelling?

In a previous interview with Global News, Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Toronto, said travel needs to be kept to a minimum as much as possible with no exceptions for any kind of tourism.

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He said beyond just keeping the border closed to Americans, Canadians should not be coming and going as they please.

“We shouldn’t be having that,” he said. “It’s not just about keeping Americans out if we want to make things better,” he said.

“Canadians should not be leaving the country for tourism or business travel.”

U.S. cases spike

The United States remained the epicentre of the virus on Sunday.

According to a tally from Johns Hopkins University, by 12 p.m. ET Sunday, there were more than 4.1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country.

So far the virus has claimed 146,484 lives in the U.S.






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Concerns raised over American tourists using ‘Alaskan loophole’ during pandemic


Concerns raised over American tourists using ‘Alaskan loophole’ during pandemic

The federal government announced the country’s border with the U.S. would be closed to all non-essential travel in March.

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Last week, the two countries agreed to keep their shared borders closed to non-essential traffic until at least Aug. 21.

Read more:
Majority of Canadians polled want U.S. border closed until end of 2020: Ipsos

And it appears an overwhelming majority of Canadians support the decision.A poll conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News earlier this month found that 85 per cent of Canadians said they want to keep the Canada-U.S. border closed until at least the end of 2020.The survey also suggested that anxiety surrounding travel is high.Ninety-three per cent of the poll’s respondents said they felt it would be “too risky” to travel to the U.S. this summer.–With files from Global News reporters Olivia Bowden and Maryam Shah

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Opinions on what Tagovailoa should do next vary after his 3rd concussion since joining Dolphins

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — Nick Saban has a message for Tua Tagovailoa: Listen to experts, then decide what happens next.

Antonio Pierce had another message: It’s time to retire.

Saban, Pierce and countless others within the game were speaking out Friday about Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins quarterback who is now dealing with the third confirmed concussion of his NFL career — all coming within the last 24 months. He was hurt in the third quarter of the Dolphins’ 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, leaving the game after a scary and all-too-familiar on-field scene.

“This has to be a medical decision,” Saban said on ESPN, where the now-retired coach works as an analyst. “I mean, you have to let medical people who understand the circumstances around these injuries, these concussions — and when you have multiple concussions, that’s not a good sign.

“I think Tua and his family and everyone else should listen to all the medical evidence to make sure you’re not compromising your future health-wise by continuing to play football.”

That process — gathering the medical facts — was getting underway in earnest on Friday, when Tagovailoa was set to be further evaluated at the team’s facility. He was diagnosed with a concussion within minutes of sustaining the injury on Thursday and there is no timetable for his return.

“I’ll be honest: I’d just tell him to retire,” Pierce, the coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, said Friday. “It’s not worth it. It’s not worth it to play the game. I haven’t witnessed anything like I’ve seen that’s happened to him three times. Scary. You could see right away, the players’ faces on the field, you could see the sense of urgency from everybody to get Tua help. He’s going to live longer than he’s going to play football. Take care of your family.”

Concern — and opinions — have poured in from all across the football world ever since Tagovailoa got hurt. It is not a surprising topic — the questions of “should he? or shouldn’t he?” continue to play — nor is this the first time they have been asked. Tagovailoa himself said in April 2023 that he and his family weighed their options after he was diagnosed twice with concussions in the 2022 season.

But Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said it’s not his place, nor is it the time, to have discussions about whether Tagovailoa should play again.

“Those types of conversations, when you’re talking about somebody’s career, it probably is only fair that their career should be decided by them,” McDaniel said.

The Dolphins said Friday that they will bring in another quarterback, and for now are entrusting the starting job to Skylar Thompson. McDaniel said the team will not rush to any other judgments, that the only opinions that truly matter right now come from two sides — Tagovailoa and his family, and the medical experts who will monitor his recovery.

“The thing about it is everybody wants to play, and they love this game so much, and they give so much to it that when things like this happen, reality kind of hits a little bit,” Jacksonville coach Doug Pedersen said Friday. “It just shows the human nature, or the human side of our sport.”

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AP Sports Writer Mark Long in Jacksonville, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Canada’s Sarah Mitton captures shot put gold at Diamond League in Brussels

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BRUSSELS – Canadian shot putter Sarah Mitton rebounded from a disappointing performance at the Paris Olympics by capturing Diamond League gold on Friday.

Mitton, of Brooklyn, N.S., won the competition, the final Diamond League event of the season, with a heave of 20.25 metres on her third throw.

Chase Jackson of the U.S. placed second with a throw of 19.90, while German’s Yemisi Ogunleye, the Olympic gold medallist, claimed bronze with a toss of 19.72.

Mitton, the runner-up of last year’s world championship, failed to qualify for the top eight in Paris.

Edmonton runner Marco Arop, who won silver for Canada in the men’s 800 metres at the Paris Games, was scheduled to race in the 800 on Saturday.

Olympic bronze-medallist Alysha Newman, of London, Ont., also competes Saturday in the women’s pole vault.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Michigan’s Greg Harden, who advised Tom Brady, Michael Phelps and more, dies at 75

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ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) — Greg Harden, who counseled countless people at the University of Michigan from Tom Brady to Michael Phelps, and Desmond Howard to J.J. McCarthy, has died. He was 75.

Michigan athletics spokesman Dave Ablauf said the family informed the athletic department that Harden died Thursday due to complications from surgery.

The late Bo Schembechler, a College Football Hall of Fame coach, hired Harden in 1986 as a staff consultant and student-athlete personal development program counselor.

“He meant the world to me and I could never have had the success I had without the time, energy, love and support he had given me,” said Brady, a former Michigan quarterback who went on to win seven Super Bowls in a 22-year career.

Howard, who won the Hesiman Trophy in 1991, was part of the first wave of Wolverines to count Harden as a confidant, mentor and friend.

“Greg brought wisdom, joy and his calming nature to every encounter,” Howard said. “His presence will be missed by all of us.

“Although my family and I are heartbroken, we hold on to the lessons, guidance and memories that will forever be Greg’s legacy. We are blessed beyond measure to have had him in our lives.”

Harden, who was from Detroit, earned undergraduate and master’s degrees at Michigan.

Phelps lived and trained in Ann Arbor, Michigan, after emerging as swimming star at the 2004 Athens Olympics, and worked on his mental health with Harden.

Harden retired from his role as director of counseling for Michigan’s athletic department in 2020. He still continued to work, advising student-athletes at Michigan along with the Toronto Maple Leafs as the NHL team’s peak performance coach.

He published his first book, “Stay Sane in an Insane World: How to Control the Controllables and Thrive,” last year.

Michigan athletics announced Harden’s death, and shared statements from some of the many people who knew him.

McCarthy, a Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback, sent the school his thoughts in the form of a letter to Harden.

“You gave me the courage and belief as we fought hand and hand against the demons that I’ve spent my entire life fighting,” McCarthy wrote. “You have inspired me by your ability to unconditionally love everyone and everything.”

While many famous football players worked with Harden, he also was a trusted adviser for women and men in all sports and walks of life, including broadcaster Michelle McMahon, who played volleyball at Michigan.

“He poured his heart into thousands of students, athletes, and celebrities alike without any expectation of gaining anything in return,” McMahon said. “He dedicated his entire life to making a difference and investing in the growth of the young impressionable minds that were lucky enough to meet him.

“His captivating presence and charisma captured the rooms he walked in. Greg’s gift to the world was his unwavering ability to help people see themselves fully, in full acceptance of their flaws and their gifts. His relentless approach made it impossible for his mentees to give up on themselves.”

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Follow Larry Lage at https://twitter.com/larrylage

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