Modelling group predicts BC COVID-19 cases could reach record numbers - CHEK | Canada News Media
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Modelling group predicts BC COVID-19 cases could reach record numbers – CHEK

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A video voiced by Dr. Eric Cytrynbaum, and released by the BC COVID-19 Modelling Group, doesn’t pull punches.

“The first important point that I want to highlight is that we are now seeing exponential growth in all regions of the province,” Cytrynbaum can be heard saying in the video.

The modelling group is comprised of  data analysts and researchers from B.C. universities and is independent from the provincial government.

They’ve released their eighth report that details why B.C.’s case count is leaping, from 50 cases a month ago, to a staggering 500 to 700 daily cases.

According to this new modelling, it’s going to get worse in every health region in the province.

Dr. Dean Karlen said the numbers could improve, but not without stringent measures.

“I would describe the future as a crisis if no action is taken. No change in human behavior,” he said.

It’s the Delta variant causing the concern, and the report warns that hospitals could be overwhelmed this fall.

Cases are doubling every nine days and Dr. Caroline Colijn predicts case counts could reach 2,000 a day in B.C. by September.

“Right now unfortunately, people who are not vaccinated are much more at risk of getting COVID, and especially if we don’t control transmission with more lockdowns. And we don’t want to.”

The scientists are calling on the B.C. government to aggressively promote vaccinations to reach at least a 90 per cent vaccination rate to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.

“After following this disease for so many months, in so many jurisdictions, it would be quite surprising to see this turnaround on its way without deliberate measures,” Karlen said.

That could include bringing back some of the circuit breaker measures introduced in late March.

That’s when restaurants had to limit service to outdoor dining, indoor fitness was restricted, and only essential travel was permitted.

Dr. Jens von Bergmann said the emphasis should be to vaccinate everyone in the province who can be vaccinated.

“In the end, we’ll have the situation where by the end of the year, either everybody will have gotten, been vaccinated, or have gotten COVID. or both.”

The scientists say cases will only decrease when everyone who can be vaccinated is vaccinated.

WATCH: Trudeau warns of ‘consequences’ for unvaccinated federal workers

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Bizarre Sunlight Loophole Melts Belly Fat Fast!

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