Modelling group warns of ‘rapid growth’ in COVID cases, recommends masking for all indoors - Castlegar News | Canada News Media
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Modelling group warns of ‘rapid growth’ in COVID cases, recommends masking for all indoors – Castlegar News

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An independent B.C. modelling group is warning that the province “may be entering a rapid growth phase” and warned that the Delta variant is continuing to rip through the unvaccinated.

The B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group, made up of scientists from three major B.C. universities, released an interim report on Friday (Aug. 6) due to a sharp increase in cases in the province.

B.C. reported 464 cases on Friday, the highest numbers since May. In the interim report, the modelling group said that cases are showing “clear growth” after the Step 3 reopening on July 1, which saw the mask mandate lifted and few restrictions on social and organized gatherings.

“The exact nature of the growth is unclear because of inadequate data on variants of concern, in particular Delta,” the group stated.

The B.C. Centre for Control releases weekly variant data, but it is delayed a week. Data released Friday measured variants of concern between July 25 and July 31 and found that Delta made up 95 per cent of cases circulating during that time period. Two weeks ago, Delta accounted for just 39 per cent of cases sequenced.

The modelling group said that B.C.’s increase in COVID cases is “consistent with the pattern seen in Europe and the U.S.” due to relaxation of restrictions and an increase in the Delta variant. The Delta variant has a daily growth rate that is 10 per cent faster than Alpha and according the U.S. Center for Disease Control data, can lead to rare breakthrough infections among vaccinated individuals, who can go on to spread the virus.

The recent growth in cases has largely been in the Interior Health region, particularly in the Central Okanagan. Of Friday’s 464 cases, 275 were in Interior Health. The province has implemented a slew of restrictions for the Central Okanagan region, including a mask mandate, limits on indoor and outdoor personal gatherings and restaurants and the suspension of high intensity fitness classes and the shuttering of bars and nightclubs.

READ MORE: Bars, nightclubs ordered to close as Central Okanagan COVID-19 cases surge

Two weeks prior, B.C. reported 112 daily cases, with a similar percentage of cases coming from Interior Health.

While B.C.’s overall vaccination rate is 72 per cent of the total population, some health authorities are lagging behind. The lowest is Northern Health with 57.4 per cent of people vaccinated with at least one dose and next is Interior Health with 65.2 per cent of people partially vaccinated. Fraser Health sits at 69.4 per cent and Vancouver Coastal is at 79.9 per cent.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has attributed the increase in Interior Health infections to unvaccinated people between 20 and 40 years old. Among people ages 18 to 49, the Central Okanagan had a 69 per cent first-dose vaccination rate as of Aug. 3, and a 51 per cent second-dose rate. Meanwhile Surrey, a hotspot earlier on in the pandemic, had a 85 per cent first-dose vaccination rate among people ages 18 to 49 and had 64 per cent of that group fully vaccinated.

While fully vaccinated individuals have a ten times lower risk of catching and spreading COVID-19, the modelling group emphasized there was still a risk.

“To reduce the growth of cases, we encourage continued use of masks in indoor public settings, reduced exposure to poorly ventilated and crowded indoor environments, and vaccination by all those who are able,” the group stated.

READ MORE: 24 people in intensive care, all unvaccinated from COVID-19: B.C. officials

READ MORE: ‘Consequences’ for unvaccinated promised by B.C. officials, who stay vague on vaccine passports


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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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