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Models show physical distancing could continue for 2 years: Gardner – OrilliaMatters

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Over the next two years, Ontarians will hear a lot about physical distancing, predicts the region’s medical officer of health.

The Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit released new modelling projections today, alongside the province’s own release of the same, and said the modelling showed the need for physical distancing to continue — in waves of restrictions — over the next 24 months.

“What is most effective in these models is the physical distancing that we do and also the case and contact follow-up that the health unit does,” said Dr. Charles Gardner, medical officer of health for the region.

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“This can make an enormous difference. I think we’re seeing evidence that we’re having an effect with this approach, all of us together.”

Among the key findings of the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit is this: “Without physical distancing being applied for at least 12 of the next 24 months, it is projected that Ontario would not have enough hospital (intensive care unit) beds.”

According to Gardner, the virus will come and go in cycles, and so too should public health control measures like physical distancing and business closures.

“Until we get a vaccine, we’re going to have cycles of the virus coming and going,” said Gardner. “It’s still circulating in our community. The potential is still there.”

Another finding listed in the SMDHU report on its latest modelling numbers suggest a repeated cycle of physical distancing that lifts physical distancing rules and replaces them when cases start to reappear would both prevent the health-care system from being overwhelmed and still allow mental health and economic breaks for people.

However, the question of when to start lifting physical distancing controls is complex.

“I don’t think anybody has the definitive answer,” said Gardner, who is part of a provincial working group that is considering the question. “Everything needs to be coming down and not up. You have to be beyond the peak and going down before you could consider backing away from controls.”

Backing off of controls would also mean preparing for a surge and keeping surveillance going in the province for early detection of a new wave of spread.

“We would also need to know that our system would be ready if we backed away from controls and then you had a resurgence of cases,” said Gardner. “You have to make sure the health care system is well-prepared with intensive care unit beds and ventilators.”

He said engagement with the community will also be key, and controls should be relaxed slowly and in areas where it would be less harmful.

For example, controls in long-term care homes would be the last to be lifted.

“We have the potential to learn from other countries that are beginning to do this,” said Gardner.

According to the province of Ontario modelling released today, we are currently in a peak for virus cases. Gardner said the region is seeing a flattening of the curve, but not a drop.

“We’re plateauing, but we’re certainly not coming down,” said Gardner. “It’s too soon to be actually doing it, but not too soon to be asking how and when we’ll be doing it.”

The modelling data released by the health unit today predicts between 130 and 200 cases confirmed through lab testing and about 15 to 20 deaths in the month of April.

There are now 202 cases in the region, but 52 of those cases were reported in March. There have been 12 deaths attributed to COVID-19 reported in Simcoe County and Muskoka.

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RCMP warn about benzodiazepine-laced fentanyl tied to overdose in Alberta – Edmonton Journal

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Grande Prairie RCMP issued a warning Friday after it was revealed fentanyl linked to a deadly overdose was mixed with a chemical that doesn’t respond to naloxone treatment.

The drugs were initially seized on Feb. 28 after a fatal overdose, and this week, Health Canada reported back to Mounties that the fentanyl had been mixed with Bromazolam, which is a benzodiazepine.

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Mounties say this is the first recorded instance of Bromazolam in Alberta. The drug has previously been linked to nine fatal overdoses in New Brunswick in 2022.

The pills seized in Alberta were oval-shaped and stamped with “20” and “SS,” though Mounties say it can come in other forms.

Naloxone treatment, given in many cases of opioid toxicity, is not effective in reversing the effects of Bromazalam, Mounties said, and therefore, any fentanyl mixed with the benzodiazepine “would see a reduced effectiveness of naloxone, requiring the use of additional doses and may still result in a fatality.”

Photo of benzodiazepine-laced fentanyl seized earlier this year by Grande Prairie RCMP after a fatal overdose. edm

From January to November of last year, there were 1,706 opioid-related deaths in Alberta, and 57 linked to benzodiazepine, up from 1,375 and 43, respectively, in 2022.

Mounties say officers responded to about 1,100 opioid-related calls for service, last year with a third of those proving fatal. RCMP officers also used naloxone 67 times while in the field, a jump of nearly a third over the previous year.

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CFIA continues surveillance for HPAI in cattle, while sticking with original name for disease – RealAgriculture

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The Canada Food Inspection Agency will continue to refer to highly pathogenic avian influenza in cattle as HPAI in cattle, and not refer to it as bovine influenza A virus (BIAV), as suggested by the American Association of Bovine Practitioners earlier this month.

Dr. Martin Appelt, senior director for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, in the interview below, says at this time Canada will stick with “HPAI in cattle” when referencing the disease that’s been confirmed in dairy cattle in multiple states in the U.S.

The CFIA’s naming policy is consistent with the agency’s U.S. counterparts’, as the U.S. Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has also said it will continue referring to it as HPAI or H5N1.

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Appelt explains how the CFIA is learning from the U.S. experience to-date, and how it is working with veterinarians across Canada to stay vigilant for signs of the disease in dairy and beef cattle.

As of April 19, there has not been a confirmed case of HPAI in cattle in Canada. Appelt says it’s too soon to say if an eventual positive case will significantly restrict animal movement, as is the case with positive poultry cases.

This is a major concern for the cattle industry, as beef cattle especially move north and south across the U.S. border by the thousands. Appelt says that CFIA will address an infection in each species differently in conjunction with how the disease is spread and the threat to neighbouring farms or livestock.

Currently, provincial dairy organizations have advised producers to postpone any non-essential tours of dairy barns, as a precaution, in addition to other biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of cattle contracting HPAI.

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Toronto reports 2 more measles cases. Use our tool to check the spread in Canada – Toronto Star

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Canada has seen a concerning rise in measles cases in the first months of 2024.

By the third week of March, the country had already recorded more than three times the number of cases as all of last year. Canada had just 12 cases of measles in 2023, up from three in 2022.

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