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Modi's Key Reforms Stall as Pandemic Upends India's Economy – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — India’s delay in appointing a new central bank committee to decide interest rates is just the latest of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s key economic reforms that are failing to gain traction during the nation’s worst crisis in decades.

Three of his keystone reforms — the goods and services tax, a bankruptcy and insolvency law and the Monetary Policy Committee — have been mired in problems since the Covid-19 outbreak upended economic activity.Modi’s administration has delayed payments it promised India’s 28 states as compensation under the new consumption tax regime, increasing tension between the two tiers of government. The bankruptcy law has been suspended, frustrating the loan recovery efforts of lenders already saddled with one of the world’s worst bad-loan problem. And on top of that, the government didn’t appoint members to the central bank’s MPC in time for its scheduled policy decision last week, delaying possible stimulus that the economy desperately needs.

“In such uncertain times, the least we can do is avoid unnecessary uncertainty. The MPC episode has just added to the ongoing chaos,” said Amol Agrawal, an assistant professor in the department of economics and public policy at Ahmedabad University. “Reforms have surely been dealt a blow by the pandemic.”

K.S. Dhatwalia, a spokesman for the government, didn’t immediately respond to a call on his mobile phone for comment.

Record Slump

Modi has been hailed by investors for his business-friendly reforms, which had been under discussion for years but pushed through in the first three years when he first took office in 2014.The stall in reforms is weighing on the outlook for Asia’s third-largest economy, which has gone from one of the fastest growing in the world to among the worst hit during the pandemic. India’s gross domestic product contracted a record 23.9% in the June quarter from a year ago, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is predicting the economy will shrink 14.8% in the fiscal year through March 2021.

The government is still pushing through reforms in the farm sector and seeking changes to the nation’s rigid labor rules.

The GST dispute is particularly worrying. Modi’s government is short of 2.35 trillion rupees ($32 billion) of the 3 trillion rupees it owes states this year, and is encouraging them to borrow the shortfall amount until it can resume payments when tax revenue improves. With states unable to deliver key spending programs, some have threatened to take the matter to court.

On the bankruptcy law, banks were broadly against the government’s blanket suspension of it to provide relief to businesses hurt by the pandemic. The move will further delay bankruptcy settlements for banks grappling with huge bad-debt ratios.

MPC Delay

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code “is the most effective instrument available to banks for recovering their defaulted loans to the best extent possible,” Subhash Chandra Garg, a former top bureaucrat at the Finance Ministry in the Modi government, told businessmen recently. “Suspension of IBC should be revoked,” he said, adding that the code had created an “institutional path and a shift in the effectiveness of dispute resolution.”

The delay in appointing new MPC members at the Reserve Bank of India after their terms ended in August adds a new layer of complication for bankers. It could weigh on lending at a time when credit growth is already weak.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said last week the delay in appointments to the MPC wasn’t by design, and the names of three new external members would be announced shortly. She is due to meet her counterparts from states Monday on the GST compensation matter.

While investors continue to be optimistic about India’s pro-market reforms, “we have seen a number of events that at least raise eyebrows in a very short period of time and could be considered bad from an institutional quality perspective, said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank. That could show up “sooner or later in ratings, yields, risk appetite and even economic growth.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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