Key indicators are forecasting Canadians may be on the brink of entering a fall COVID-19 wave.
The past month has seen an increase in positive test cases, a rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations and rising virus levels in wastewater across the country.
The highly mutated new variant BA.2.86 was also detected in Canada for the first time on Tuesday.
Ottawa’s medical officer of health Vera Etches said current higher COVID-19 levels are expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks.
These early warning signs have some wondering whether COVID-19 is making a comeback, and if it is, how bad it will be.
CBC Ottawa spoke with public health experts to get some answers.
“Right now it accounts for about 60 per cent of the current positives we’re seeing so that’s what’s driving this late summer wave,” said Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.
“A lot of people haven’t had a booster for about 12 months and have lost a fair degree of the immunity that might have protected them from getting infected.”
Most of us who’ve been watching carefully expected there to be a rise.– Dr. Fahad Razak
Ottawa’s medical officer of health Vera Etches said Thursday it’s not yet clear that subvariants are driving the increase.
“It’s more that we’re in close contact with each other,” she said.
This week on Cross Country Checkup, our Ask Me Anything focuses on the new COVID-19 variant BA.2.86 and what’s next for masking and booster shots. What questions do you have? Fill out the details on this form to get your questions in early.
Dr. Fahad Razak, former scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, explained COVID-19 infections have yet to settle into a seasonal pattern like we now expect from RSV and influenza. He said this summer’s rise echoes rises that have occurred in earlier years of the pandemic.
“Most of us who’ve been watching carefully expected there to be a rise,” Razak said. “We know that as the virus continues to evolve and mutate there will be these periodic rises that occur.”
Subvariant EG.5 is just one of several variants in Ottawa’s wastewater right now, according to Tyson Graber, co-lead investigator of the wastewater monitoring project in Ottawa.
Graber has seen a gradual increase in most of these variants in the wastewater over the past four weeks but EG.5 is outpacing the other variants.
“That’s indicative of a COVID-19 wave happening in the city and unsurprisingly that is followed by an increase in hospitalizations that we’re seeing now in Ottawa,” Graber said.
Ottawa Public Health says 177 new COVID-19 cases were reported the week of Aug. 22. (CBC)
This variant has only been identified in a few countries around the world, but its high number of mutations still has health experts concerned.
“This virus has 30 mutations or changes to [its] spike protein, which is the part the antibodies try to grab to take out the virus,” explained Dr. Peter Lin, director of primary care initiatives at the Canadian Heart Research Centre in Toronto.
“So the antibodies we made from the vaccine or previous infections may not be able to grab the spike protein as easily, which means the virus could slip past our defences.”
Everybody is sounding the alarm bells again.– Dr. Peter Lin
Omicron was the last variant that appeared with this many mutations.
“We’re kind of in the same situation,” Lin said. “Everybody is sounding the alarm bells again.”
Not all are sounding the alarm bells quite yet.
“I haven’t seen evidence yet that it has an ability to out compete the other viruses out there. If it can’t do that, then it’s just going to fizzle out,” Evans said.
Health Canada told CBC News Monday it is considering three new vaccines specifically designed to target the subvariant XBB.1.5, which like EG.5, is also part of the Omicron family.
While it is too early to say whether the new vaccines will be able to target BA.2.86, Lin said there is some hope.
Variant BA.2.86 has not yet been detected in Ottawa’s wastewater, but Graber expects it will show up within the next month.
Health experts say masking, staying up to date with vaccinations and staying home when showing symptoms will all be effective in slowing the spike of the wave. (David Horemans/CBC)
Are we entering another wave?
There are different opinions on whether the country is entering a new COVID-19 wave, or simply a rise in cases.
Graber said the increase in COVID-19 viruses he is seeing in Ottawa’s wastewater does indicate the beginning of another wave.
Based on the waste water data alone, we probably won’t be done with this wave until at least October or November.– Tyson Graber
“It’s a foregone conclusion that we are now in a late summer, early fall wave, and that this wave will continue for at least the next couple of months,” he said, adding the increase he’s seeing is not as steep as the early days of previous waves have been.
“Based on the waste water data alone, we probably won’t be done with this wave until at least October or November.”
Researchers measure and share the amount of novel coronavirus in Ottawa’s wastewater. The most recent data is from Aug. 27, 2023. ( (613covid.ca))
Graber said there are a handful of variables that could change this forecasted trajectory, including the coming return to school, an increase in indoor activities, waning immunity, and new variants coming through the door.
Razak does not expect this wave will cause severe disruptions for most Canadians.
“For most people the chances they’ll get really sick are low,” he said. “This is not the crisis we faced in year one, two, or three of the pandemic, but it can still be disruptive. Preventative steps are prudent.”
For Evans, the current increase in COVID-19 cases does not yet indicate we’re entering another wave.
“The curve ball is BA.2.86,” he said. “If it were to really emerge and have a growth advantage, then all bets are off and we might actually see a subsequent pandemic wave.”
When should I get my next booster?
Most experts are advising to hold off on getting a booster until the new vaccines have arrived, which experts say are expected mid-fall.
“The bivalent available now is not going to work very well so that’s why we should wait for the new one,” Lin said.
“The new vaccines made by Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax are designed to go after XBB spike protein, because that was the main virus for most of the year. EG.5 is the son of XBB, they have a lot of things in common, and so the hope is that it will work on that version.”
Evans said the same.
You need a booster. If everybody just abandons getting boosters going forward there’s a high probability we’ll return to a more susceptible population- Dr. Gerald Evans
“If you’re young and healthy and overdue, just wait until the new boosters come out,” he said.
“But if you’re somebody of substantial risk and you’re due for your booster, you should probably get it now. Even current vaccines will protect you from acute infection for a good month or two.”
Generally healthy people who have kept up to date with their boosters will likely have developed a hybrid immunity. Evans specified this doesn’t mean people who have updated boosters are immune to new variants, but it does mean their infections will be less severe, so they can afford to hold off.
Health Canada is reviewing three applications for new COVID-19 vaccine formulations to address new subvariants in circulation. (Lars Hagberg/Canadian Press)
Despite this, he said continued vaccination is still important.
“You need a booster. If everybody just abandons getting boosters going forward there’s a high probability we’ll return to a more susceptible population.”
Evans said Health Canada will likely only approve the new vaccines for children 12 and over but that kids between five and 12 years old are able to get the bivalent booster currently available.
What does this mean for back to school?
Health experts expect the return to school will bring an increase in viral spread, as it has in previous years.
“We’ll see the usual pattern of germ swap once kids go back to school,” Lin said. “But this time we have new variants. All of this virus swapping will happen before new vaccines are available.”
But this could come with some advantages, Evans said, explaining the return to school will also cause an immediate rise in the common cold, which can offer a small amount of protection against COVID-19 infections.
Evans said getting children boosted before going back to class would help to reduce the spread, and advised parents to keep kids home if they’re showing any symptoms.
“It is important as children come together in schools to do that check every day [for respiratory symptoms], and stay home when you’re sick,” Etches said.
Experts anticipate the back-to-school season will mean increased circulation of RSV, influenza and COVID-19. (James Arthur Gekiere/Belga Mag/AFP/Getty Images)
Any chance of mask mandates or lockdowns?
Health experts consulted for this piece agreed that a fall COVID-19 wave would be unlikely to induce mask mandates or lockdowns.
“I don’t think there’s anything that we’re seeing right now that would suggest we should go into lockdown or anything like we’ve seen in the past, in terms of early pandemic public health measures.,” Graber said.
Razak agreed.
“Unless there is significant change in the nature of the virus, I think it’s very unlikely a mask mandate will be something any government in North America or Europe considers,” he said. “A mask mandate at this point would do more harm than good.”
Razak did distinguish between general mask mandates and those for higher risk environments like hospitals, adding that the latter is something he hopes provinces will consider.
As it is, Razak said he expects mask use to be very low this winter.
“There is a sense that the pandemic has passed,” Razak said. “This is going to be a very difficult challenge for public health leadership to get people to get vaccinated.”
All health experts consulted assured masking and vaccination continue to be the best ways to reduce the spread of the virus.
“Regardless of the variant, there are things we can do to decrease spread of respiratory illness,” Etches said.
“Wearing a mask as we get back to work or school is one thing we can do to help decrease transmission, keeping our hands clean, not touching our face with unclean hands, these are things to remind ourselves to practice again as we head into the fall.”
HALIFAX – Police have accused a Nova Scotia man of murdering a woman reported missing from the province’s Annapolis Valley after U.S. authorities detained a suspect at the Houston airport as he was preparing to board a flight to Mexico.
The RCMP say they charged 54-year-old Dale Allen Toole with first-degree murder after he was extradited by U.S. authorities and landed at Pearson International Airport in Toronto on Thursday.
RCMP Insp. Murray Marcichiw said investigators have yet to find the body of 55-year-old Esther Jones, but he said police believe there was sufficient evidence to lay the murder charge.
The search for Jones began on Labour Day after family members reported her missing.
RCMP Cpl. Jeff MacFarlane, lead investigator in the case, says Jones was last seen Aug. 31 at the Kingston Bible College in Greenwood, N.S.
MacFarlane says the accused, who is from Tremont, N.S., was not a suspect until police received key information from the Jones family and the community.
He said police executed a number of search warrants at locations in and around Annapolis County, including the communities of Kingston, Greenwood and South Tremont.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec government says Canada’s special representative on combating Islamophobia must resign, after she sent a letter to college and university heads recommending the hiring of more Muslim, Arab and Palestinian professors.
The existence of the letter, dated Aug. 30, was first reported by Le Journal de Québec, and a Canadian Heritage spokesperson says it was sent to institutions across the country.
In her letter, Amira Elghawaby says that since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, a dangerous climate has arisen on campuses.
She says to ease tensions educational institutions should be briefed on civil liberties and Islamophobia, and that they should hire more professors of Muslim, Arab and Palestinian origin.
It was this reference to hiring that drew the immediate indignation of Quebec’s higher education minister, who called on Elghawaby to resign, saying she should “mind her own business.”
Minister Pascale Déry says hiring professors based on religion goes against the principles of secularism the province adheres to.
Speaking to reporters in the Montreal area, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that while each university will make its own hires, Elghawaby’s role is to make recommendations and encourage dialogue between different groups.
Later in Repentigny, Que., Premier François Legault criticized Trudeau for defending Elghawaby “in the name of diversity” and refusing to call for her resignation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – A report into a triple stabbing at a festival in Vancouver’s Chinatown last year says the man accused of the crimes had been let out of a psychiatric care facility 99 times in the year prior without incident.
The report, authored by former Abbotsford Police chief Bob Rich, says the suspect in the stabbing, Blair Donnelly, was on his 100th unescorted leave from the BC Forensic Psychiatric Hospital on Sept. 10, 2023, when he allegedly stabbed three festivalgoers at the Light Up Chinatown Festival.
The external review, ordered by the provincial government after the stabbings, says Donnelly was found not criminally responsible for killing his daughter in 2006 while “suffering from a psychotic delusion that God wanted him to kill her.”
Rich’s report makes several recommendations to better handle “higher-risk patients,” including bolstering their care teams, improving policies around granting patient leaves, shoring up staff training in forensics and the use of “risk-management tools,” such as GPS tracking systems.
The B.C. Ministry of Health says it has accepted all of Rich’s recommendations and has already begun implementing them including “following new polices for granting leave privileges at the hospital.”
Court records show Donnelly is due back in Vancouver provincial court in March 2025.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
