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More pain coming for residential, commercial real estate: Wells Fargo – Markets Insider

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  • Residential and commercial real estate have more pain coming as financial conditions tighten, Wells Fargo said.
  • Housing has been slammed by high mortgage rates, which have weighed on both demand and supply.
  • Commercial real estate is struggling as work-from-home trends remain popular, the bank said.

There’s more pain ahead for both the residential and commercial real estate market, thanks to a cocktail of bearish forces that are bearing down on both sectors, according to Wells Fargo.

“Our rating on the Real Estate sector remains unfavorable. Numerous headwinds have combined to make residential and commercial real estate investment unattractive based on our current analysis,” senior global market strategist Scott Wren said in a note on Wednesday. “We expect that further deterioration of the underlying fundamentals is likely.”

A little over halfway through the year, financial conditions have tightened after a slew of bank crises, interest rates are at their highest level since 2007, and the Fed is saying it still might not be done tightening monetary policy to fight inflation.

The rate on the 30-year mortgage is close to 20-year highs, which has weighed heavily on both supply and demand for homes. Higher rates, meanwhile, have also increased the cost of commercial mortgages and made it more expensive to refinance the mountain of debt coming due in the sector. 

But that’s not all, Wren said. 

Banks are pulling back on lending after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and others in the spring, which has made credit availability worse for commercial borrowers. The percentage of commercial mortgages that have been delinquent for 30-89 days surged to 1.6% in December, more than double the rate of 0.6% in April 2021. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate for office-backed commercial mortgage-backed securities has surged to a five-year high, Wren said. 

In residential real estate, higher rates have led to reduced inventory, as many homeowners are cling onto the lower interest rates at which they financed their homes years ago. The lower supply of homes has pushed up prices even as demand sags because of expensive borrowing costs. 

The median price for an existing home in the US surged to $413,800 last month, according to National Association of Realtors data. That’s a 51% increase from the median price in December 2019, posing a major headwind for the residential housing market.

“We believe tighter credit and job worries should impact demand. For these many reasons, we are cautious on residential markets,” Wren said.

Meanwhile, in commercial real estate, office demand is still way down as work-from-home trends remain popular. Office vacancy just hit an all-time high of 13.1, NAR data shows. The All Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Index has also fallen 13% from levels at the start of the year, a sign that property values are taking a hit.

“We expect commercial real estate to underperform on a relative basis in the near-to-intermediate term,” Wren said of the sector.

Experts have warned of trouble in real estate as macro pressures mount. Housing affordability won’t likely improve until mortgage rates decline more meaningfully, though that’s not expected to happen soon. Meanwhile, commercial real estate prices are in danger of falling dramatically, with Morgan Stanley strategists predicting a 40% peak-to-trough decline.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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