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Morgan Stanley commercial real estate report predicts steep price drop

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Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank collapse. Could more banks follow?

How is the government responding to the Silicon Valley Bank failure? Here’s what we know.

Just the FAQs, USA TODAY

In February, a PIMCO-owned office landlord defaulted on an adjustable rate mortgage on seven office buildings in California, New York and New Jersey when monthly payments rose due to high interest rates.

Brookfield, the largest office owner in downtown Los Angeles, that month chose to default on loans on two buildings rather than refinance the debt due to weak demand for office space.

They are a bellwether for what is likely to come, as more than half of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE’s existing mortgages,” wrote Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett, in a recent report.

Banking turmoil: Close to 190 banks could face Silicon Valley Bank’s fate, according to a new study

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Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, the commercial real estate market was dealing with a host of challenges including dwindling demand for office space brought on remote work, increased maintenance costs and climbing interest rates.

With small- and medium-size banks accounting for 80% of commercial real estate lending, the situation might soon get worse, says experts.

Commercial property prices could fall as much as 40% “rivaling the decline during the 2008 financial crisis,” forecast Morgan Stanley analysts.

“These kinds of challenges can hurt not only the real estate industry, but also entire business communities related to it,” says Shalett.

Is all commercial real estate in trouble?

Commercial real estate includes office buildings, shopping centers, multi-family apartments, hotels and data centers.

“It’s a wide bucket of assets,” says Mark Grinis, EY Americas Real Estate, Hospitality & Construction leader. “If you go to our data centers or in our industrial buildings that are powering e-commerce, they’re doing quite well. If you go into the multi-family business, rents maybe softening a little bit, but there’s still an undersupply of housing. The elephant in the room is office space, that’s going through a transformative shift.”

When it comes to office loans, since 2021, 44% more by volume were in delinquency and 55% more were in special servicing, according to Trepp, a provider of data and insights on commercial real estate.

“Storm clouds are absolutely building,” says Grinis.

Private equity to the rescue of office buildings?

In the short term, poorly structured, capitalized and financed buildings are probably either undergo some sort of change of ownership or go through foreclosure, says Grinis.

“You’re gonna see some eggs broken as these things (mortgages) mature and come due,” says Grinis. “And they either have to find somebody that’ll give them additional equity capital, they have to get their lender to be flexible or it will go back to the bank.”

When the price is right, expect private capital to step in.

“It’s a publicly traded security and a lot of people are looking at some of these office stocks and saying, ‘God, these are a pretty good buy,” so private equity will, at some point when the price is right, be there.”

Perspective from a real estate firm

Kip Sowden, CEO of Dallas-based RREAF Holdings, a private real estate investment firm with $5 billion in assets under management, says he’s seen business shrink due to tighter lending requirements.

The company, which operates in 14 states, develops multi-family dwellings, beachfront resorts, large residential communities, extended stay hotels and is in the process of developing RV parks.

In 2022, the company exceeded $1.5 billion in deal volume, up from $1.3 billion in 2021, he said.

“And in 2023, we think those numbers will likely be cut in half because of higher interest rates and just contraction in the number of deals financial institutions will look to fund.”

Sowden, who borrows from regional banks, says underwriting requirements have become very stringent.

“ A lot more equity is necessary to transact than before,” he said.

Office-to-residential conversions are top of mind

Office –to–residential conversions have been a hot topic of discussion ever since the pandemic emptied out office buildings.

State and local officials can help developers stuck with languishing properties while addressing affordable housing challenges in cities by fast-tracking zoning changes required for these conversions, say experts.

“Cities like New York and San Francisco are jewels of urban landscape and nobody benefits when these urban centers suffer,” says Grinis.  “And so, there’s a call to action with respect to governments, private capital and then to maybe to some extent, regulators and legislators to ensure that the vibrancy of cities continue.”

Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is a housing and economy correspondent for USA TODAY.  You can follow her on Twitter @SwapnaVenugopal and sign up for our Daily Money newsletter here.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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