Economy

Morgan Stanley says a second wave of coronavirus won't derail Asia's economic recovery – CNBC

Published

4 years ago

June 17, 2020

A boy waves a national flag as his dad holds him and uses a smartphone with a selfie stick to take a photo, both wearing protective masks, in front of the portrait of late communist leader Mao Zedong (R, back) at Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on January 23, 2020.

Nicolas Asfouri | AFP | Getty Images

Another wave of coronavirus outbreak in Asia will not be as economically damaging as the first, said a Morgan Stanley economist as several countries like China and South Korea recently experienced an uptick in the number of cases.

Worries that a second wave of infections would once again derail the global economy have heightened in recent months as an increasing number of countries are easing restrictions that were imposed to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The first round of lockdown measures, which stalled much of economic activity, sent global economies into a recession.

But Deyi Tan, who is also managing director at Morgan Stanley, said that if there is a second wave, it will likely be more manageable as policymakers have learned to handle such situations.

“A double dip is not in our base case, we do acknowledge that as economies reopen, daily new cases will rise,” Tan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday. A “double dip” refers to a situation in which an economy picks up following a period of decline, but weakens again after that.

So at this point in time, we don’t expect a second wave to actually cause the global economy, or Asian economies, to go through a double dip.

Deyi Tan

Morgan Stanley economist

She noted that several Asian economies — such as South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong — have started to ease restrictions since late April. Since then, some have reported a rise in daily new cases, “but in the bigger scheme of things, the trend is still relatively manageable compared to what we’ve seen before,” she added.

“So at this point in time, we don’t expect a second wave to actually cause the global economy, or Asian economies, to go through a double dip,” said Tan.

China to lead global recovery

In Asia, China’s capital city of Beijing last week reported its first domestically transmitted case of the coronavirus disease — which has been formally named Covid-19 — in more than 50 days. Over in South Korea, capital city Seoul also reported recent flare-ups in infections. The two countries once had the two worst outbreaks globally before the virus spread more widely around the world.

The coronavirus was first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan before it spread into a global pandemic.

Despite the resurgence in cases, Asia — excluding Japan — is expected to recover quicker than other regions, with China leading the way, according to a Morgan Stanley report written by economists including Tan.

“This is so given the more effective institutional response in economies such as China, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong, where Covid-19 has gotten under control earlier, and in some cases, without even needing to resort to lockdown measures,” read the report published on Sunday.

The economists wrote that Asia (excluding Japan) as a whole is expected to edge out a 0.1% growth in 2020, before accelerating to an 8.5% expansion next year.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

18 hours ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

Published

1 day ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

Published

2 days ago

September 12, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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