A boy waves a national flag as his dad holds him and uses a smartphone with a selfie stick to take a photo, both wearing protective masks, in front of the portrait of late communist leader Mao Zedong (R, back) at Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on January 23, 2020.
Nicolas Asfouri | AFP | Getty Images
Another wave of coronavirus outbreak in Asia will not be as economically damaging as the first, said a Morgan Stanley economist as several countries like China and South Korea recently experienced an uptick in the number of cases.
Worries that a second wave of infections would once again derail the global economy have heightened in recent months as an increasing number of countries are easing restrictions that were imposed to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The first round of lockdown measures, which stalled much of economic activity, sent global economies into a recession.
But Deyi Tan, who is also managing director at Morgan Stanley, said that if there is a second wave, it will likely be more manageable as policymakers have learned to handle such situations.
“A double dip is not in our base case, we do acknowledge that as economies reopen, daily new cases will rise,” Tan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday. A “double dip” refers to a situation in which an economy picks up following a period of decline, but weakens again after that.
So at this point in time, we don’t expect a second wave to actually cause the global economy, or Asian economies, to go through a double dip.
Deyi Tan
Morgan Stanley economist
She noted that several Asian economies — such as South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong — have started to ease restrictions since late April. Since then, some have reported a rise in daily new cases, “but in the bigger scheme of things, the trend is still relatively manageable compared to what we’ve seen before,” she added.
“So at this point in time, we don’t expect a second wave to actually cause the global economy, or Asian economies, to go through a double dip,” said Tan.
China to lead global recovery
In Asia, China’s capital city of Beijing last week reported its first domestically transmitted case of the coronavirus disease — which has been formally named Covid-19 — in more than 50 days. Over in South Korea, capital city Seoul also reported recent flare-ups in infections. The two countries once had the two worst outbreaks globally before the virus spread more widely around the world.
The coronavirus was first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan before it spread into a global pandemic.
Despite the resurgence in cases, Asia — excluding Japan — is expected to recover quicker than other regions, with China leading the way, according to a Morgan Stanley report written by economists including Tan.
“This is so given the more effective institutional response in economies such as China, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong, where Covid-19 has gotten under control earlier, and in some cases, without even needing to resort to lockdown measures,” read the report published on Sunday.
The economists wrote that Asia (excluding Japan) as a whole is expected to edge out a 0.1% growth in 2020, before accelerating to an 8.5% expansion next year.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
