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Morgan Stanley Sees K-Shaped Recovery For Commercial Real Estate – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley says commercial real estate will see a so-called K-shaped recovery from the pandemic, leading to stark winners and losers among holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities.

This bifurcation means that some deals will experience much higher realized losses than others, depending on factors such as bond, vintage and property type. Bonds backed by hotels, retail and offices are likely to see more struggles than those on industrial properties.

The split creates a market where due diligence and active management is key as investors seek to gain an upper hand amid the chaos.

“A bond picker’s market has emerged,” a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Richard Hill wrote in an outlook report Wednesday. For instance, a “market of ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ has emerged in BBB- (CMBS bonds), as idiosyncratic risks and rising loss expectations magnify quality tiering.”

This has led to scant trading opportunities for older BBB- CMBS conduit tranches. Investors are unwilling to sell the higher-quality bonds, while the lower-quality bonds lack sponsorship, the analysts wrote.

The CMBS market has struggled this year as Covid-19 kept shoppers out of malls, travelers away from hotels and workers home from offices. More than 1,400 CMBS loans totaling $29.3 billion are currently delinquent, Morgan Stanley said. Lodging and retail properties have the highest delinquencies, at 22.6% and 11.8%, respectively.

To make things more complicated, the overall CMBS headline delinquency rate of 7.8% “may be understated by 300 to 400 basis points, given a combination of forbearance and borrowers drawing down on reserves to pay current principal and interest payments,” the report said.

The bank’s expected-loss projections for CMBS conduits are in an average range of 5% to 7%, depending on which year a CMBS was issued. That could exceed 10% and even hit the high teens for specific deals that are more troubled, the report said.

Losses may reach as high as the AA ratings tier in certain bear-case scenarios, the Morgan Stanley research show, while lower-ranked classes will almost definitely see some realized losses, depending on the transaction.

“There is a wide range of deal-by-deal losses across all vintages,” Hill wrote, noting that additional stresses on lodging, retail, and office properties may cause loss projections to rise.

Despite the challenging picture of performance, CMBS issuance next year may surprise to the upside. The bank projects $60 billion to $70 billion in 2021 sales across conduit, single-asset, single borrower, and commercial real estate CLO offerings as maturities come due.

CMBS sales have reached about $54.4 billion so far this year, more than 40% lower than the same span in 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Relative Value: CLOs

  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management remains constructive on senior CLO tranches, as analysts think spreads have room for further compression and offer attractive carry for a short spread duration profile, according to a recent research note
  • AAA rated CLO spreads have lagged other securitized credit sectors
  • “Spreads on securitized credit sectors tightened following the U.S. election and positive vaccine developments, consistent with the improvement in risk assets”

Quotable

“The way special servicers look at the vaccine news is, ‘Does this make the CMBS borrowers more likely to commit new capital to protect their equity? Will they now be more apt to commit capital?’” said James Shevlin, president and chief operating officer of special servicer CWCapital. “We hope the answer is yes, as some borrowers are in round two of forbearance.”

What’s Next

ABS deals in the queue include Volkswagen (auto lease) and ServiceMaster Brands (whole business). The latter transaction may price on Friday. CLOs from KKR and Symphony Asset Management may also price on Friday or next week.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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