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Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets

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Sept 1 – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Labor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday’s release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday’s end-of-season U.S. holiday.

Investors are praying the former doesn’t usher in The Fall.

Judged by the torrent of labor market soundings we’ve seen already this week, a negative surprise from the national employment picture later on Friday seems unlikely.

Consensus forecasts for a slight slowdown in the monthly hiring pace to about 170,000 additional non-farm payrolls last month, and a jobless rate steady at just 3.5%, would tally with the picture painted by other employment measures this week.

A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped.

On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week.

Some loosening of the super-tight labor market and ebbing of brisk wage growth is seen by many as a critical condition to stay the Federal Reserve’s hand in tightening one more time this year. Going into Friday’s report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November.

Although slightly dated at this stage, the July reading of the Fed’s favoured PCE inflation gauge ticked higher, spending was robust and economists at JP Morgan sharply revised up their economic growth forecast for the current quarter by a full percentage point to 3.5%.

An update from the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDPNow estimate, which last week clocked an annualised growth rate for Q3 of 5.9%, will also be watched very closely later on Friday.

Beyond Wall St, which took a step back on Thursday, the broader world markets mood has picked up in the early hours of September. Helping that was another series of Chinese credit and mortgage easing and tentative signs from private surveys that factories there are finally pulling out of a slump.

Although Hong Kong was braced for the onset of Typhoon Saola, China’s mainland shares (.CSI300) rose 0.7% on Friday.

In the background, markets there are also watching embattled Chinese developer Country Garden (2007.HK) after the firm delayed a deadline for creditors to vote on whether to postpone payments for an onshore private bond to Friday.

In Europe, investors are also split on whether the European Central Bank is done tightening ahead of this month’s policy meeting, after data showed inflation remained sticky above 5% last month. A factory survey on Friday showed the downturn in euro zone manufacturing eased last month.

And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

The International Monetary Fund’s No. 2 official Gita Gopinath said the IMF expected global interest rates to remain high for “quite some time,” adding that rates might never return to the era of “low for long” given the possibility of more frequent adverse supply shocks.

In corporate news, shares in Broadcom slipped 5% pre-market after its fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed forecasts overnight.

More generally, S&P500 futures were up slightly – as were European bourses. Treasury yields were steady at this week’s lows and the dollar (.DXY) was softer. China’s offshore yuan outperformed despite the loan rate cuts.

Events to watch for on Friday:

* U.S. August employment report, U.S. August manufacturing sector surveys from ISM and S&P Global, U.S. July construction spending. Canada’s latest Q2 GDP estimate

* Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester speaks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics

Unemployment rate and change in non-farm payrolls for the United States

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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