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Morning Coffee: NHL Draft Odds Shift Dramatically Following McKenzie's Final Rankings – TSN

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Shane Wright was the overwhelming favourite to be the number one overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft at FanDuel for over a month.

That changed late on Tuesday morning.

Shortly after Bob McKenzie’s Draft Ranking Show went live, FanDuel took their odds to be the first overall pick off the board.

At the time, Wright to be the first overall pick was -900.

When the draft odds came back online moments later, FanDuel had Wright at -210 to go number one.

Juraj Slafkovsky, the Slovakian winger who Bob McKenzie had No. 1 in his final draft ranking, went from +450 to +130 as the second choice to be the top pick at FanDuel.

Less than one week after the unprecedented sports betting experience that was the 2022 NBA Draft, we got a major move in the NHL Draft betting market that created a unique opportunity for anybody following it.

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Wednesday June 29th, 2022.

Who Will Go No. 1 In 2022 NHL Draft?

It’s important to keep Bob McKenzie’s draft ranking decision in context.

McKenzie called his final draft ranking a “photo finish”, explaining the split between Slafkovsky and Wright among the NHL scouts that he spoke with, and noting that if he had talked with a separate set of scouts then they might have arrived at a different conclusion.

You can read his full article below.

As far as the betting market reaction, everything that we saw on Tuesday went as anticipated.

At the time that the final ranking was released, Slafkovsky was sitting at +450 to be the first overall pick at FanDuel.

That number represents an 18.2 per cent implied probability, which hardly seems like an accurate representation for a player that just earned the No. 1 ranking by the slimmest of margins.

Following Bob McKenzie’s Draft Ranking Show, FanDuel moved Slafkovsky to +130 to go number one.

Slafkovsky still wasn’t the favourite, but +130 represents a 43.5 per cent implied probability, which is much more in line with his actual chances to go first overall than his previous odds.

At the same time, Wright went from -900 to -210 at FanDuel.

The story didn’t end there, though.

Keep in mind, Wright had been the consensus top pick in McKenzie’s draft ranking for the entire season, which is a sentiment that was echoed by many different voices throughout the hockey community. 

Anybody that still felt Wright is the best bet to be the first overall pick but couldn’t bet him at -900 could now get him at -210. 

At the same time, if you bet on Slafkovsky to go first overall at +450 and wanted to hedge your position, you could now do so by buying back with Wright at -210.

As it turns out, the market adjusted again as we expected.

After crashing from -900 to -210, Wright’s odds to go first overall moved to -320, which is where they currently sit.

Slafkovsky’s odds ticked up from +130 to +140.

That’s where their odds currently sit at FanDuel this morning.

Meanwhile, no other player has shorter than +2000 odds to be the first overall pick.

Those numbers more accurately represent the split that McKenzie described among the scouts that he asked about the first overall pick.

With just eight days to go before the 2022 NHL Draft, it will be very interesting to see if that market moves again over the next week.

CFL Week 4 Early Lean

If you follow the @TSN_EDGE account on Twitter and you tailed our Early Leans for Week 3, then you couldn’t lose.

Davis Sanchez, Eric Cohen and I were on the BC Lions -3 versus the Toronto Argonauts.

They won that game by 41 points.

Christian Marin played the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on the money line ahead of a 26-12 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Milt Stegall took the 9.5 points with the Edmonton Elks in a 30-23 loss to the Calgary Stampeders.

On Tuesday, Davis revealed his Early Lean on Sportscentre, taking the Ottawa Redblacks +3 against the Lions.

It didn’t take long for that number to move at FanDuel.

Right now, I’m looking at BC -2.5 with the total at 47.5.

While it’s still early, I’ve had that game circled as the most highly anticipated showdown of the early season so far.

The Lions are rolling behind Nathan Rourke and an offence that has 44+ points in back-to-back wins, but they are travelling across the country on a short week with some notable injuries.

At the same time, the Redblacks are 0-2 following consecutive losses to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, but they held their own against the defending Grey Cup champions in both losses, and should benefit from home field and an extra week off to prepare following the bye.

As for my Early Lean, make sure you tune into our TSN EDGE Twitter Spaces this afternoon at 1:30 PM ET, where we will look to build off last week’s sweep and break down everything you need to know for the Week 4 games.

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Jays reliever Green and Canadian slugger O’Neill nominated for comeback player award

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NEW YORK – Toronto Blue Jays reliever Chad Green and Canadian slugger Tyler O’Neill of the Boston Red Sox were named finalists for the Major League Baseball Players’ Association’s American League comeback player award on Monday.

Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet was the other nominee.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. were named player of the year finalists.

The award winners, selected via player voting, will be named Saturday before Game 2 of the World Series.

Green, who missed most of the 2022 and ’23 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery, was a high-leverage option for the Blue Jays this past season and filled in at closer over the second half of the campaign.

The right-hander converted his first 16 save opportunities and finished the year with a 4-6 record, 17 saves and a 3.21 earned-run average over 53 appearances.

O’Neill, a native of Burnaby, B.C., also endured back-to-back injury-plagued seasons in ’22 and ’23.

After being traded to the Red Sox in the off-season, O’Neill set an MLB record by hitting a homer in his fifth straight Opening Day. He finished with 31 homers on the year and had an OPS of .847.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Panthers’ Reinhart named NHL first star after posting nine points over four games

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NEW YORK – Florida Panthers centre Sam Reinhart was named NHL first star of the week on Monday after leading all players with nine points over four games last week.

Reinhart had four goals, five assists and a plus-seven rating to help the Stanley Cup champions post a 3-0-1 record on the week and move into first place in the Atlantic Division.

New York Rangers left-winger Artemi Panarin took the second star and Minnesota Wild goaltenderFilip Gustavsson was the third star.

Panarin had eight points (4-4) over three games.

Gustavsson became the 15th goalie in NHL history to score a goal and had a 1.00 goals-against average and .962 save percentage over a pair of victories.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s season ended by ruptured Achilles tendon, team said he’ll have surgery

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CLEVELAND (AP) — Deshaun Watson won’t finish the season as Cleveland’s starting quarterback for the second straight year.

He’s injured again, and the Browns have new problems.

Watson ruptured his right Achilles tendon in the first half of Sunday’s loss to Cincinnati, collapsing as he began to run and leading some Browns fans to cheer while the divisive QB laid on the ground writhing in pain.

The team feared Watson’s year was over and tests done Monday confirmed the rupture. The Browns said Watson will have surgery and miss the rest of the season but “a full recovery is expected.”

Watson was injured on a noncontact play in the second quarter of Cleveland’s 21-14 loss to the Bengals and carted off the field in tears.

It’s the second significant injury in two seasons for Watson, who broke the glenoid (socket) bone in his throwing shoulder last year after just six starts.

The 29-year-old went down Sunday without being touched on a draw play late in the first half. His right leg buckled and Watson crumpled to the turf. TV replays showed his calf rippling, consistent with an Achilles injury.

He immediately put his hands on his helmet, clearly aware of the severity of an injury similar to the one Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers sustained last year.

As he was being assisted by the team’s medical staff and backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson grabbed a ball to begin warming up, there was some derisive cheers and boos from the stands in Huntington Bank Field.

Cleveland fans have been split over Watson, who has been accused of being sexually inappropriate with women.

The reaction didn’t sit well with several Watson’s teammates, including star end Myles Garrett, the NFL’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, who was appalled by the fans’ behavior.

“We should be ashamed of ourselves as Browns and as fans to boo anyone and their downfall. To be season-altering, career-altering injury,” Garrett said. “Man’s not perfect. He doesn’t need to be. None of us are expected to be perfect. Can’t judge him for what he does off the field or on the field because I can’t throw stones for my glass house.

“Ultimately everyone’s human and they’re disappointed just like we are, but we have to be better than that as people. There’s levels to this. At the end of the day, it’s just a game and you don’t boo anybody being injured and you don’t celebrate anyone’s downfall.”

Backup quarterback Jameis Winston also admonished the uncomfortable celebration.

“I am very upset with the reaction to a man that has had the world against him for the past four years, and he put his body and life on the line for this city every single day,” he said. “The way I was raised, I will never pull on a man when he’s down, but I will be the person to lift him up.

“I know you love this game. When I first got here, I knew these were some amazing fans, but Deshaun was treated badly and now he has to overcome another obstacle. So I’m going to support him, I’m going to lift him up and I’m going to be there for him.”

The injury is yet another twist in Watson’s tumultuous time with the Browns.

Cleveland traded three first-round draft picks and five overall to Houston in 2022 to get him, with owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam approving the team giving Watson a fully guaranteed, five-year $230 million contract.

With a solid roster, the Browns were desperate to find a QB who could help them compete against the top AFC teams.

The Browns had moved on from Baker Mayfield despite drafting him No. 1 overall in 2018 and making the playoffs two seasons later.

But Watson has not played up to expectations — fans have been pushing for him to be benched this season — and Cleveland’s move to get him has been labeled an abject failure with the team still on the hook to pay him $46 million in each of the next two seasons.

Watson’s arrival in Cleveland also came amid accusations by more than two dozen women of sexual assault and harassment during massage therapy sessions while he played for the Texans. Two grand juries declined to indict him and he has settled civil lawsuits in all but one of the cases.

Watson was suspended by the NFL for his first 11 games and fined $5 million for violating the league’s personal conduct policy before he took his first snap with the Browns. The long layoff — he sat out the 2021 season in a contract dispute — led to struggles once he got on the field, and Watson made just six starts last season before hurting his shoulder.

Cleveland signed veteran Joe Flacco, who went 4-1 as a starter and led the Browns to the playoffs.

Before Watson got hurt this year, he didn’t play much better. He was one of the league’s lowest-rated passers for a Cleveland team that hasn’t scored 20 points in a game and is back in search of a franchise QB.

___

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