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Mortgage debt in Canada, highlighted in 5 charts

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With consecutive interest rate hikes across G7 nations, borrowing is getting more expensive for those looking to take on a mortgage.

But Canada may be facing more challenges than its G7 peers.

CTVNews.ca looks at recent data by the intergovernmental Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to analyze where Canada stands in comparison with other G7 nations when it comes to housing affordability, housing prices, and indebtedness.

Central banks in G7 nations have been aggressive in addressing the rising cost of living through consecutive interest rate hikes.

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High interest rates typically would mean high debt servicing costs, which eventually increase the cost of everything—from mortgages to credit cards and loans. The thought behind the hike is to discourage consumers from spending. To address the cost of living crisis, the Bank of Canada steadily raised interest rates, reaching 3.75 per cent last month, from just 0.25 per cent in January this year.

CANADA HAS A HIGH PRICE-TO-INCOME RATIO

When compared with other G7 nations, Canada has the most expensive housing market.

Data from OECD shows that the price-to-income ratio—also known as the measure of affordability—remained the highest for Canada, followed by Germany.

According to the quarterly data released by OECD, Canada’s ratio index reached 148.16 in the second quarter of 2022, the highest amongst G7 nations, which means that housing prices grew at a rate of 48 per cent faster than income since 2015. By comparison, house prices in the U.S. grew roughly 40 per cent faster than incomes since 2015.

In a virtual conference in March this year, Sharon Kozicki, the deputy governor with the Bank of Canada, said that Canadian households that have taken out mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios probably aren’t the ones who have a lot of cash in their bank accounts.

She said rising mortgages can trigger a slowdown in household spending and if enough of them reduce spending, it could impact the entire economy, resulting in slow growth and increased unemployment.

“A drop in house prices could worsen these effects,” she said.

HIGHEST NOMINAL HOUSING PRICE IN G7 NATIONS

Early in the pandemic, higher savings, and historically low interest rates encouraged some Canadians to buy homes. The buying pattern also shifted with people working remotely during the pandemic, which encouraged many Canadians to seek homes in the suburbs, where houses were larger and more affordable. A high disposable income further led to a surge in demand for home mortgages.

In the current high-interest rate environment, higher mortgage rates have contributed to a sharp decline in housing activity, leading to a decline in house prices. According to Wowa’s latest housing market report, average home prices in Canada have fallen by 22 per cent in the span of 7 months.

But the cooling housing market in Canada should not be mistaken for increasing affordability, warned Rebecca Oakes, Vice-President of Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada in a recent press release.

She said affordability depended not just on home prices, but also on monthly payment obligations for a mortgage.“Higher interest rates coupled with high inflation can really stretch a consumer’s monthly expenditure, while many could find it difficult to qualify for a mortgage,” she said.

But despite cooling markets, recent data released by OECD shows that Canada has the highest nominal housing price. According to the annual data released by OECD, the ratio index for Canada grew 59 per cent since 2015, the highest jump recorded by any G7 nation, followed closely by Germany, which showed an annual jump of 58 per cent since 2015.

In the second quarter of 2022, Canada’s nominal house pricing index was 183.9, followed by the U.S. with a price index of 182

HIGHEST HOUSEHOLD DEBT ACROSS G7 NATIONS

Due to the soaring housing prices during the pandemic, Canadians took on more mortgage debt in order to pay for a home.

Data from OECD shows that Canadians remain the most indebted in G7 nations and tend to take on more household debt than their G7 peers.

In 2021—the most recent year for which data are available for all countries—household debt in Canada was 185 per cent of disposable income.

In 2020, household debt in Canada was equivalent to 177.3 per cent of disposable income. In comparison, the U.K. has the second-highest household debt at 148 per cent. In comparison to OECD countries, which ranks 38 countries, Canada ranks ninth after countries such as Denmark and Norway that top the list with 255 per cent and 241 per cent of disposable income with household debt, respectively.

Kozicki said high indebtedness amongst Canadians could amplify the impact of interest rates. An additional concern is that a growing share of new mortgages also has variable rates, which tend to fluctuate with the bank’s policy interest rates.

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Canada Child Benefit payment on Friday | CTV News – CTV News Toronto

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More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.

The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.

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The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.

For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.

That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.

The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.

To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.

The next payment date will take place on May 17. 

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Capital gains tax change draws ire from some Canadian entrepreneurs worried it will worsen brain drain – CBC.ca

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A chorus of Canadian entrepreneurs and investors is blasting the federal government’s budget for expanding a tax on the rich. They say it will lead to brain drain and further degrade Canada’s already poor productivity.

In the 2024 budget unveiled Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government would increase the inclusion rate of the capital gains tax from 50 per cent to 67 per cent for businesses and trusts, generating an estimated $19 billion in new revenue.

Capital gains are the profits that individuals or businesses make from selling an asset — like a stock or a second home. Individuals are subject to the new changes on any profits over $250,000.

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The government estimates that the changes would impact 40,000 individuals (or 0.13 per cent of Canadians in any given year) and 307,000 companies in Canada.

However, some members of the business community say that expanding the taxable amount will devastate productivity, investment and entrepreneurship in Canada, and might even compel some of the country’s talent and startups to take their business elsewhere.

WATCH | The federal budget hikes capital gains inclusion rate: 

Federal budget adds billions in spending, hikes capital gains tax

3 days ago

Duration 6:14

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled the government’s 2024 federal budget, with spending targeted at young voters and a plan to raise capital gains taxes for some of the wealthiest Canadians.

Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators (CCI), said the capital gains tax has overshadowed parts of the federal budget that the business community would otherwise be excited about.

“There were definitely some other stars in the budget that were interesting,” he said. “However, the … capital gains piece really is the sun, and it’s daylight. So this is really the only thing that innovators can see.”

The CCI has written and is circulating an open letter signed by more than 1,000 people in the Canadian business community to Trudeau’s government asking it to scrap the tax change.

Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke and president Harley Finkelstein also weighed in on the proposed hike on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Former finance minister Bill Morneau said his successor’s budget disincentivizes businesses from investing in the country’s innovation sector: “It’s probably very troubling for many investors.”

Canada’s productivity — a measure that compares economic output to hours worked — has been relatively poor for decades. It underperforms against the OECD average and against several other G7 countries, including the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan, on the measure. 

Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers sounded the alarm on Canada’s lagging productivity in a speech last month, saying the country’s need to increase the rate had reached emergency levels, following one of the weakest years for the economy in recent memory.

The government said it was proposing the tax change to make life more affordable for younger generations and fund efforts to boost housing supply — and that it would support productivity growth.

A challenge for investors, founders and workers

The change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access funding in a high interest rate environment, said Bergen.

He questioned whether investors will want to fund Canadian companies if the government’s taxation policies make it difficult for those firms to grow — and whether founders might just pack up.

The expanded inclusion rate “is just one of the other potential concerns that firms are going to have as they’re looking to grow their companies.”

A man with short brown hair wearing a light blue suit jacket looks directly at the camera, with a white background behind him.
Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators, said the proposed change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access and raise financing in a high interest rate environment. (Submitted by Benjamin Bergen)

He said the rejigged tax is also an affront to high-skilled workers from low-innovation sectors who might have taken the risk of joining a startup for the opportunity, even taking a lower wage on the chance that a firm’s stock options grow in value.

But Lindsay Tedds, an associate economics professor at the University of Calgary, said the tax change is one of the most misunderstood parts of the federal budget — and that its impact on the country’s talent has been overstated.

“This is not a major innovation-biting tax change treatment,” Tedds said. “In fact, when you talk to real grassroots entrepreneurs that are setting up businesses, tax rates do not come into their decision.”

As for productivity, Tedds said Canadians might see improvements in the long run “to the degree that some of our productivity problems are driven by stresses like housing affordability, access to child care, things like that.”

‘One foot on the gas, one foot on the brake’

Some say the government is sending mixed messages to entrepreneurs by touting tailored tax breaks — like the Canada Entrepreneurs’ Incentive, which reduces the capital gains inclusion rate to 33 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million — while introducing measures they say would dampen investment and innovation.

“They seem to have one foot on the gas, one foot on the brake on the very same file,” said Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

WATCH | Could the capital gains tax changes impact small businesses?: 

How could capital gains tax increases impact Canadian small businesses? | Power & Politics

2 days ago

Duration 12:18

Some business groups are worried that new capital gains tax changes could hurt economic growth. But according to Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez, most Canadians won’t be impacted by that change — and it’s a move to create fairness.

A founder may be able to sell their successful company with a lower capital gains treatment than otherwise possible, he said.

“At the same time, though, big chunks of it may be subject to a higher rate of capital gains inclusion.”

Selling a company can fund an individual’s retirement, he said, which is why it’s one of the first things founders consider when they think about capital gains.

LISTEN | What does a hike on the capital gains tax mean?: 

Mainstreet NS7:03Ottawa is proposing a hike to capital gains tax. What does that mean?

Tuesday’s federal budget includes nearly $53 billion in new spending over the next five years with a clear focus on affordability and housing. To help pay for some of that new spending, Ottawa is proposing a hike to the capital gains tax. Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University, joins host Jeff Douglas to explain.

Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, says he was disappointed by the change — and that it sends the wrong message to Canadian industries like his own.

He wants to see the government commit to more tax credit proposals like the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses, which he said would incentivize business owners to stay and help make Canada competitive with the U.S.

“We’ve had a lot of difficulties attracting investment over the years. I don’t think this will make it any better.”

Tech titan says change will only impact richest of the rich

A man sits on an orange couch in an office.
Ali Asaria, the CEO of Transformation Lab and former CEO of Tulip Retail, told CBC News that the proposed change to the capital gains tax is ‘going to really affect the richest of the rich people.’ (Tulip Retail)

Toronto tech entrepreneur Ali Asaria will be one of those subject to the expanded capital gains inclusion rate — but he says it’s only fair.

“It’s going to really affect the richest of the rich people,” Asaria, CEO of open source platform Transformer Lab and founder of well.ca, told CBC News.

“The capital gains exemption is probably the largest tax break that I’ve ever received in my life,” he said. “So I know a lot about what that benefit can look like, but I’ve also always felt like it was probably one of the most unfair parts of the tax code today.”

While Asaria said Canada needs to continue encouraging talent to take risks and build companies in the country, taxation policies aren’t the most major problem.

“I think that the biggest central issue to the reason why people will leave Canada is bigger issues, like housing,” he said.

“How do we make it easier to live in Canada so that we can all invest in ourselves and invest in our companies? That’s a more important question than, ‘How do we help the top 0.13 per cent of Canadians make more money?'”

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Canada Child Benefit payment on Friday | CTV News – CTV News Toronto

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More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.

The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.

300x250x1

The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.

For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.

That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.

The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.

To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.

The next payment date will take place on May 17. 

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