“In the first wave there was essentially the shutdown of the economy, and that greatly reduced the amount of movement of people participated in,” he said. “This time, we had the opening of the economy, we have people going back to work, certainly people going back to school.”
He noted a school case, for example, could have 30 or more contacts per case.
In addition to changes in communication with lower-risk contacts, the health unit has also, as of Oct. 6, ordered mandatory self-isolation for Simcoe and Muskoka residents, who are diagnosed with COVID-19, have COVID-19 symptoms and are awaiting test results, reasonably believe they have one or more COVID-19 symptoms, or have been in close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case.
Failure to comply could lead to a $5,000 fine per day not isolated.
Gardner noted that, while most people comply with health unit direction on self-isolation, there have been enough who failed to comply to justify the order.
The order will stay in place until the health unit lifts it — and it could last until the pandemic is declared over.
Each case of noncompliance will be considered on an individual basis.
But the health unit seems to want to take every measure to reduce transmission of the virus, as the health system continues to experience pressure.
The provincial public health laboratory system, for example, continues to face backlogs in processing swabs and returning COVID-19 test results.
And demand for tests has led to new provincial restrictions on access to COVID-19 tests to prioritize those with symptoms, those notified by the health unit or COVID Alert app that they have been exposed to a confirmed case, and those who live or work in a setting with a COVID-19 outbreak, and pushed all assessment centres in Muskoka and beyond to by-appointment-only formats.
“The really critical thing is that people with symptoms self-isolate,” said Gardner.
He said he takes the second wave very seriously, as the latest provincial projections show the potential for infection and spread to become particularly severe, affect vulnerable populations such as long-term care homes, overwhelm the health system and increase mortality rates.
The most severe projection, he said, shows the potential for more than 1,000 cases per day by early to mid-October.
He noted such a scenario was critical to avoid and, while the health care system needed to be prepared, a collective effort is needed to reduce transmission and flatten the curve.
“People need to do what they can to reduce transmission, protect themselves and protect others,” he said.
That includes physical distancing, hand hygiene, mask use in public, at work or when you can’t physically distance for people outside your household, self-monitoring, and, when necessary, self-isolating and seeking testing.
“All of that is really important,” he said. “It is going to flatten the curve again, bring it under control again, to safeguard those who are most vulnerable.”
