An infection control epidemiologist says he disagrees with New Brunswick’s decision to cut back its COVID-19 updates to monthly instead of weekly, as of this week.
Colin Furness, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, who has followed the progression of the pandemic in New Brunswick, says the move “reflects an attitude that COVID is a seasonal virus, a respiratory virus, and not a particularly serious health concern.”
“In my estimation COVID is not seasonal, it’s not a respiratory virus, and it’s extremely concerning,” he said.
“So I think … the decision is consistent with their logic. I just think that their logic is wrong.”
The new Omicron subvariant that has caused a surge in India and has been detected in at least 33 countries, has now also spread to New Brunswick. Two cases of XBB.1.16 have been confirmed in the province to date, according to the Department of Health.
COVID-19 activity “continues to be an ongoing concern,” Dr. Jennifer Russell, New Brunswick’s chief medical officer of health, has said. But case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths have been “relatively stable” since January.
The switch to monthly COVID updates is “to ensure consistency in [the province’s] reporting on respiratory illnesses,” such as influenza, Russell has said.
Not necessarily seasonal and not ‘only’ respiratory
Furness contends treating COVID like the flu, with a “silent assumption” that it’s seasonal, is “dangerous.”
It may be logical to expect COVID numbers will be higher in the fall and winter, when people are gathered indoors more, with windows and doors closed, he said. That’s when all viruses tend to flourish, including common colds, which are not actually very contagious and require close indoor contact to spread.
However, COVID is “far more contagious” and doesn’t require ideal conditions to multiply.
So to assume COVID isn’t “worth paying attention to” during the summer months is “foolish,” said Furness.
Infection control epidemiologist Colin Furness said he understands the province’s logic in moving to monthly COVID-19 updates, but he ‘firmly disagrees with it.’ (CBC)
The change in reporting becomes “self-reinforcing” though, he said. “We’re going to conclude that we don’t need to measure it and we’ll justify that by not having any data to contradict.”
Similarly, Furness challenges the characterization of COVID as being “only” a respiratory virus.
He points to long COVID and the wide range of symptoms it can cause, such as brain fog.
“A data-driven view of COVID is that this is a virus that has efficiently evolved beyond being a respiratory virus to be a highly contagious, systemic virus causing neurological, vascular and organ damage, and immune dysregulation – along with an acute respiratory phase,” he said.
Maintaining the view COVID is only a respiratory virus, however, “enables social acceptance that it is not serious and that money does not need to be spent making people safer.”
Taking away ability to gauge risks
New Brunswick isn’t alone, Furness noted. Other provincial governments have also moved away from keeping the public informed about COVID. “It’s all in lockstep with the notion of ‘living with COVID,’ which is a euphemism for, ‘Let’s do nothing and see what happens.'”
It’s “wrong-minded,” according to Furness. He cites low vaccination rates as a consequence of the public not getting the clear message they should.
COVID-19 vaccination rates have been stalled for weeks, the latest data from the province shows. Only 30.5 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers have received a second booster. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
Many people don’t think COVID is a significant problem anymore and don’t think getting boosted is worthwhile, said Furness.
“If we were doing public health well, we would be concerned about sickness, we would be concerned about disease and about equipping people to gauge risk.
“And we’re taking that away. I think that’s the wrong thing to do.”
‘Wastewater doesn’t lie’
Furness acknowledges some of that data in the province’s COVIDWatch reports has become less valuable over time in terms of helping to gauge risks.
COVID deaths, for example, are often a couple of months after the fact, due to a lag in reporting from date of death to the registration of death, according to the province. There are also fewer PCR (polymerase chain reaction) lab tests being conducted now because they’re available only to people with symptoms, where the results would directly influence their treatment, and a referral from a health-care provider is required.
New Brunswick has COVID-19 wastewater monitoring in Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John, Bathurst, Campbellton and Miramichi. (Submitted by Graham Gagnon)
People who are infected shed the virus in their feces in the form of a genetic material called ribonucleic acid, or RNA, before they show symptoms of COVID-19. This can be found in raw sewage and can detect the virus in a community up to 10 days prior to clinical testing, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada.
“Wastewater doesn’t lie,” said Furness.
It also doesn’t rely on people getting tested, and it focuses on “what’s coming” instead of what has already happened, he said.
Should track changes in life expectancy, like U.S.
In addition, Furness would like to see New Brunswick and other jurisdictions track changes in population life expectancy. They should look, for example, at rates of heart attacks, strokes and other diseases associated with long COVID.
The United States does keep track of these, he said, and they’re going up.
Although Canada looked at the U.S. earlier in the pandemic “with a sense of horror” for “letting [COVID] run wild,” the two countries are “more or less the same now” in terms of their attitudes and policies, according to Furness.
“So I think we can look at the U.S. data and say, ‘Well, that’s almost certainly to some extent what’s going on here too.'”
It’s difficult to predict what changes new variants like XBB.1.16 might bring, said Furness.
The virus seems to be settling on an evolution track where it’s improving its ability to infect and reinfect without becoming more severe, which he suspects will continue.
It could, however, change at any time, he stressed.
Precautions urged
For now, Furness cautions against being “fooled” into thinking COVID isn’t a problem by those who want the pandemic to be over and are taking risks.
People should continue to take steps to protect themselves to avoid infection or reinfection, he said. “There’s no question the cumulative harm is there. Not for everybody, it’s a bit of a Russian roulette game. But you don’t want to find out the wrong way or the hard way that that reinfection really, really hurt.”
He recommends people stay outside as much as possible this summer, use ventilation indoors, and avoid large crowds. “There’s lots of ways to have fun while also minimizing that risk.”
The next COVIDWatch report is scheduled to be released on May 30.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
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