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N.B.'s economy projected to outperform most provinces into 2021 – CBC.ca

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New Brunswick’s economy is projected to fully rebound and grow 1.2 per cent beyond its pre-pandemic levels by next year, the second best rate of recovery in Canada, according to the latest economic outlook from the Bank of Montreal.

The bank updates provincial economic projections weekly and in its latest edition suggests five provinces are likely to see their economies get back to 2019 levels by 2021 although only Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick are picked to move more than 1 per cent higher.

It’s a development the bank’s chief economist Douglas Porter is crediting largely to the provinces’ successful handling of the COVID-19 crises.

“I put it down mostly to the better performance with the virus in general,” said Porter.

“The Maritimes have fared much better than the rest of the country to the point where they can almost operate close to normal now, certainly closer than much of the rest of the country.”

National economy won’t bounce back until 2022

By contrast the national economy is not expected by the bank to get fully past its 2019 gross domestic product levels until 2022.

Nevertheless the handling of New Brunswick’s economy has become a central issue in the province’s provincial election campaign with Liberals contending not enough is being done to support recovery.

We’re doing well right now in comparison to other provinces. I am not going to promise you things with your tax dollars to buy your vote.– PC Leader Blaine Higgs

On Monday Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers continued his attack that PC Leader Blaine Higgs should be accessing more infrastructure money from Ottawa, matching it with provincial funds and spending it on needed projects to stimulate more growth. 

“We need to stabilize our province’s situation. Right now New Brunswick is headed for the wall.” said Vickers.

“If we continue at this pace it will take decades to recover.”

COVID-19 pushes budget into the red 

Roger Melanson, Liberal campaign finance spokesperson and the province’s former finance minister, said even if New Brunswick is projected to weather the current economic downturn better than other provinces, that does not undermine Liberal election messaging that Higgs is mismanaging the recovery.  

“If our provincial government would want to partner with the federal government and some municipalities our growth would be even more significant,” said Melanson.

Liberal Party Leader Kevin Vickers says more infrastructure spending would accelerate the province’s recovery but haven’t said exactly how much more should be done. (CBC News)

Melanson said he could not give an exact figure on how much more money the province should be spending. 

The pandemic has pushed New Brunswick’s budget into the red although the province has kept a tighter lid on its finances than all other provinces.

Last week the New Brunswick’s Department of Finance, released an updated fiscal outlook projecting a budget deficit of $304.9 million this year.  

At $390 per person, it will be the smallest per capita deficit in Canada among the ten provinces, which as a group are spending an average of $2,400 per person more than they are raising in revenue. The federal government’s deficit this year is more than $9,000 per person

In Saint John Monday PC Leader Blaine Higgs said New Brunswick’s economy is performing better than other province’s and does not need more deficit spending to recover. (CBC News)

But even with a lower deficit than other provinces this year New Brunswick still has the second highest debt level as a percentage of its economy after Newfoundland and Labrador.

On Monday Higgs said the province will be better served by not spending more.

“We’re doing well right now in comparison to other provinces,” he said. 

“I am not going to promise you things with your tax dollars to buy your vote.”

Economist advises to ‘stay flexible’ 

Porter said governments around the world are debating how much to spend on recovery and how much to hold in reserve in case the virus mounts a return this fall or winter.

“My advice would basically be stay flexible and see how things develop,” said Porter. 

“New Brunswick is in better shape (than other provinces) and there’s probably a little less immediate requirement for government to step in at this point.” 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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