Nanos projections: Trudeau Liberals 'under siege' across Canada | Canada News Media
Connect with us

News

Nanos projections: Trudeau Liberals ‘under siege’ across Canada

Published

 on

OTTAWA –

Hot on the heels of the Conservatives’ stunning byelection victory in the riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s, new seat projection data from Nanos Research show ridings considered previously safe for the Liberals are increasingly up for grabs.

On the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line, Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos said the latest numbers point to “difficult times if you’re a Liberal.”

“What we’re seeing is the Liberal fortress Toronto basically under siege,” Nanos said. “So maybe Toronto—St. Paul’s is the canary in the coal mine.”

On Monday, Conservative Don Stewart defied the odds to win the closely watched Toronto-area byelection, setting off political shockwaves by claiming victory in a longtime Liberal stronghold riding.

The byelection result, Nanos said, could in retrospect be considered “a referendum on the government and on Justin Trudeau.”

The loss for the Liberals also reinvigorated rumours party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could step down before the next general election, currently slated for October 2025.

“We can’t project a byelection onto the general election,” Nanos warned, but added it’s noteworthy how much better the Conservatives did in Toronto—St. Paul’s compared to the last general election, and likewise how poorly the Liberals did compared to three years ago, which “speaks to where the momentum is.”

“But I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,” he also said. “They basically, by winning, created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to step down or to be pushed out. And that kind of resets everything.”

Nanos said a Trudeau resignation would change the “political calculus” for all parties, but especially the Conservatives, who have largely framed their message around Poilievre against Trudeau.

Regional projections

In addition to the surprise win in Toronto—St. Paul’s, Nanos said, the new data shows the Conservatives “being much more competitive in Toronto.”

Latest Nanos seat projections for the Toronto area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

In comparing Nanos’s latest seat projections to the results of the 2021 general election, Ontario’s projections overall are “pretty blue,” despite “spots of red.”

The Conservatives are also challenging “very strongly in a number of Ottawa ridings outside the immediate downtown, which could prove to be races to watch whenever Canadians head to the polls.

Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in parts of southern and eastern Ontario are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

Nanos said the Liberals could also be in store for a setback in Atlantic Canada, with both Cape Breton and Halifax in play.

Regardless, the Conservatives are likely to pick up “a number of” seats out east.

Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in Atlantic Canada are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

The Prairies continue to be a lock for the Conservatives, while British Columbia is “one of the most complex kinds of environments,” because the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all extremely competitive there, said Nanos.

The riding of Burnaby South, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is the incumbent, is notably too close to call, according to Nanos’ latest seat projections.

“They’re really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said, adding B.C. can vary significantly from region to region within the province.

Latest Nanos seat projections for ridings in the Vancouver area are on the left, while results from the 2021 election for the same seats are shown on the right (Nanos Research)

“But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal,” he also said.

“Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that’s happening right now.”

Nanos said several ridings that could see three-way splits are “really, really helping the Conservatives.”

More broadly, voter intention across the country continues to show the Conservatives well ahead of the other parties, a trend Nanos said has been consistent for nearly a year.

Ballot tracking

Nanos Research’s latest tracking shows the Conservatives at 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 27 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent and the Greens at four per cent.

(Nanos Research)

“It’ll be interesting to see whether, through the summer, (the Conservatives) maintain that double-digit advantage,” Nanos said.

The pollster said while the Conservatives have stayed safely above 40 per cent for months, any change in the margin of their lead has been due to fluctuations with the Liberals and NDP.

“Think of Justin Trudeau as preferred prime minister. He’s 12 points back,” Nanos also said. “There’s no political coattails right now for the Liberals, either for their brand or for their party leader right now.”

NDP hits back with new ad

As more supposed Liberal strongholds potentially come up for grabs, the party’s confidence-and-supply-agreement partner, the NDP, has taken out its largest pre-election ad buy since 2015.

A new 30-second ad featuring Singh sets up what the party is calling the “change the rules tour,” and it takes aim at both the Conservatives and the Liberals.

[embedded content]

According to NDP national director Anne McGrath, the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection made it clear the next general election will “definitely” be a change election, and consequently the party will “absolutely” be devoting more resources to historically red ridings.

“Seats that might not have been up for grabs before are up for grabs,” McGrath said in an interview with CTV News.

“I think that it’s very obvious that what everybody thought was a stronghold, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, was not a safe seat,” she also said. “So that means that there are no safe seats.”

The Liberals’ loss has left many political watchers wondering whether the NDP will soon pull out of its confidence-and-supply pact, and Nanos said the time is coming for the party to make a decision on that front.

When asked, McGrath wouldn’t say whether the NDP is currently considering scrapping the deal, but did say the party is debt-free for the first time in nearly a decade, and building up a war chest to throw as many resources as possible at the next general election, whenever that may be.

Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Methodology

The Weekly Nanos Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

With files from CTV News’ Judy Trinh

 

Source link

Continue Reading

News

Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

Published

 on

OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



Source link

Continue Reading

News

Métis Nation Saskatchewan leaves national council, cites concerns with Ontario group

Published

 on

OTTAWA – The Métis Nation of Saskatchewan has pulled out of a national body representing Métis, citing problems with an Ontario group and throwing the future of the Métis National Council into question.

In a resolution passed Thursday morning, the Saskatchewan group says the Métis Nation of Ontario, which is a member of the national body, accepts and continues to represent people who are not Métis.

“The Métis National Council has increasingly been used for advocacy purposes that are inconsistent with its original mandate and vision, diverting from the foundational role of representing Métis rights and self-determination,” the resolution says.

It also says the Métis National Council has failed to ensure the integrity of the Ontario group’s citizenship registry and has not rectified problems, despite constant calls to do so.

The resolution says its continued association with the Métis Nation of Ontario “no longer benefits the Métis Nation within Saskatchewan or the Métis Nation as a whole.”

The Métis Nation of Ontario did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but has previously defended its citizenship registry as being legitimate.

The departure of the Saskatchewan group comes years after the Manitoba Métis Federation withdrew from the council, citing similar concerns about the Métis Nation of Ontario.

“This was not a decision our government made lightly but one we felt necessary. Our (Métis Nation of Saskatchewan) government and our Métis communities need to have control over our identity and culture while making decisions that align with the values of our Saskatchewan Métis Nation,” said president Glen McCallum in a statement on Thursday.

The Métis National Council was, until Thursday, comprised of the Métis Nation of Saskatchewan, the Métis Nation of Alberta, the Métis Nation of Ontario and the Métis Nation of British Columbia.

The Saskatchewan group was a founding member of the national body, along with the Alberta group and the Manitoba Métis Federation.

According to the national council’s bylaws, quorum for its board of governors meetings must include two of the founding members. As of now only one remains, bringing into question the future of the organization, which often works with the federal government and advocates internationally for Métis.

Will Goodon, who serves as the Manitoba Métis Federation’s housing minister, said the national body is “dead today.”

“A meeting cannot be held. And they cannot change the bylaws without having a board of governors meeting,” he wrote on X.

Métis National Council president Cassidy Caron announced earlier this year she would not be seeking re-election, leaving an open contest for someone to fill her post.

The board voted to postpone and reschedule a September vote and general assembly to November. Caron said in a newsletter that her term will end on Sept. 30 either way.

The Saskatchewan group had already pulled support for federal legislation that would enshrine its self-government over concerns about the Métis Nation of Ontario and the Métis Nation of Alberta, which were also included.

McCallum said in April the legislation was holding the group back, and that they needed to put the needs of Métis in Saskatchewan first.

First Nations chiefs in Ontario and the Manitoba Métis Federation consistently raised concerns about the Ontario group as the legislation was being studied by a House of Commons committee, with Métis Nation of Ontario president Margaret Froh billing the self-government process as the longest in Canadian history.

First Nations chiefs in Ontario have accused the federal government of overstepping its jurisdiction and alleged the legislation infringes on their rights.

The Assembly of First Nations, which represents some 630 chiefs across Canada, passed a resolution calling for the federal government to kill the legislation altogether. The AFN’s concerns are mainly focused on six new communities the Métis Nation of Ontario and the province recognized in 2017, which it says have no historical basis to exist.

The Manitoba Métis Federation has also opposed the extension of self-government to the Métis Nation of Ontario, saying the Ontario group’s membership is not on par with its definition of Métis.

The Métis Nation of Ontario has disputed that, pushing back against the idea Métis only exist around the Red River in Manitoba.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



Source link

Continue Reading

News

Quebec public services are becoming ‘dehumanized’ due to rise in demand: ombudsperson

Published

 on

MONTREAL – Quebec’s ombudsperson is warning that public services are becoming “dehumanized” in the province amid a rise in demand for them.

Marc-André Dowd released his annual report today, which highlights several examples of people receiving inadequate care across the health network in the 12 months leading to March 31.

One dying man who lived alone was denied help cleaning his cat’s litter box by his local health clinic, a service Dowd says should have been given for “humanitarian reasons.”

Dowd also describes staff at a long-term care home feeding residents “mechanically” and talking among each other — despite health ministry guidelines directing staff to maintain eye contact with residents.

The ombudsperson says his office received a record number of problems to investigate across the province’s public services — 24,867 compared with 22,053 last year.

He says his office investigated 13,358 cases between April 2023 and March of this year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version