adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Science

NASA boosts impact risk from 'potentially hazardous' asteroid Bennu – Yahoo News Canada

Published

 on


NASA boosts impact risk from ‘potentially hazardous’ asteroid Bennu

Potentially hazardous asteroid Bennu just became slightly more potentially dangerous.

Over a century from now, in 2135, a half-kilometre-wide asteroid named 101955 Bennu will pass between the Earth and the Moon. While there is absolutely no chance of an impact with Bennu at that time, the close encounter throws uncertainty into the predictions. As a result, there’s no saying for sure that Earth will be safe from Bennu afterward.

Before NASA sent their OSIRIS-REx spacecraft to Bennu, astronomers tracked asteroid Bennu using telescopes. Their observations gave us very accurate calculations of Bennu’s orbit. The relatively close passes of Bennu in 1999, 2005 and 2011 helped with this. Although it was officially classified as a “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid” (PHA), NASA could rule out any possibility of a Bennu impact for the next 100+ years.

300x250x1

However, the September 2135 encounter added an extra complication. The asteroid comes very close to Earth at that time. On September 24 of that year, its absolute minimum distance could be around 110,000 km from the planet’s surface or less than one-third the distance to the Moon. As it flies past, it will encounter one of several ‘gravitational keyholes’. As it passes through one of these tiny points in space, Earth’s gravity will tug on the asteroid and alter its orbit around the Sun.

Bennu Sept 2135 keyholes - NASA/GoddardBennu Sept 2135 keyholes - NASA/Goddard

Bennu Sept 2135 keyholes – NASA/Goddard

This screenshot of an animation used during the NASA press briefing on Wednesday, August 11, 2021, shows the potential paths of Bennu during the 2135 flyby, based on the most up-to-date telescope observations, with a separate ‘gravitational keyhole’ for each path. Credit: NASA/Goddard

Even with the carefully plotted orbit of Bennu, the minor uncertainties made it challenging to tell which ‘keyhole’ it would pass through during that 2135 flyby. Thus, there was no way to know with any certainty which orbit it would end up on afterward.

This was of great concern to scientists because it introduced over 150 possible impacts, with a cumulative 1 in 2,700 impact chance between 2135 and 2300. The most likely impact would be on September 24, 2182.

Bennu Sept 2182 potential impact - NASA/GoddardBennu Sept 2182 potential impact - NASA/Goddard

Bennu Sept 2182 potential impact – NASA/Goddard

The effects of one particular ‘gravitational keyhole’ could have disastrous results in 2182. Credit: NASA/Goddard

With OSIRIS-REx following along with the asteroid for over two years, though, it gave scientists an unprecedented chance to closely track the influence of the Yarkovsky effect.

The Yarkovsky effect is a tiny, constant ‘push’ that an asteroid receives as it radiates heat into space.

Watch below: How the Sun pushes asteroids around the solar system

Click here to view the video

According to Davide Farnocchia from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, who is the lead author of a new study published this week, the force of this ‘push’ on Bennu is equivalent to about the weight of three grapes.

“Think about that, just three grapes,” Farnocchia said in a NASA teleconference on Wednesday. “Because this acceleration is persistent, its effect builds up over time, and it becomes very significant by the time we get to 2135.”

“The OSIRIS-REx data give us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135,” Farnocchia said in a NASA press release. “We’ve never modelled an asteroid’s trajectory to this precision before.”

Based on their study of the Yarkovsky effect on Bennu, Farnocchia and his colleagues calculated an updated cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between 2135 and 2200. Instead of 1 in 2,700, the chance is now just 1 in 1,750. The individual chance of an impact on September 24, 2182, is now 1 in 2,700.

It should be noted that these probabilities are tiny.

A 1 in 1,750 chance is equal to a 0.057 per cent impact probability, while 1 in 2,700 is equivalent to 0.037 per cent. That means there’s over a 99.94 per cent chance that Bennu will miss Earth on all the potential encounters it has towards the end of the 22nd century. Specifically for September 2182, there’s a 99.96 per cent chance of a miss.

During their research, Farnocchia and the others accounted for every conceivable force that could affect Bennu’s orbit. They even considered whether the Touch-and-Go (TAG) maneuver that netted NASA a sample of the asteroid was enough to alter its trajectory.

Watch below: NASA’s OSIRIS-REx tags asteroid Bennu

Click here to view the video

“The force exerted on Bennu’s surface during the TAG event were tiny even in comparison to the effects of other small forces considered,” Rich Burns, OSIRIS-REx project manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said in the press release. “TAG did not alter Bennu’s likelihood of impacting Earth.”

The next steps in determining Bennu’s true potential as a threat to Earth will come in 2023 and 2037.

In 2023, OSIRIS-REx will swing past Earth. On its way past, it will drop off the sample it collected from Bennu’s surface back in the Fall of 2020. As scientists examine these samples in the laboratory, we will learn more about Bennu’s composition. This might provide information about how we could deflect such an asteroid on an impact trajectory.

In 2037, Bennu will be making its next close (but safe) flyby past Earth. During this pass, radio telescopes can gather radar data on the asteroid. These readings will help confirm the calculations made based on OSIRIS-REx’s data and give us an even better estimate of its exact path for that 2135 encounter.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Science

Marine plankton could act as alert in mass extinction event: UVic researcher – Langley Advance Times

Published

 on


A University of Victoria micropaleontologist found that marine plankton may act as an early alert system before a mass extinction occurs.

With help from collaborators at the University of Bristol and Harvard, Andy Fraass’ newest paper in the Nature journal shows that after an analysis of fossil records showed that plankton community structures change before a mass extinction event.

“One of the major findings of the paper was how communities respond to climate events in the past depends on the previous climate,” Fraass said in a news release. “That means that we need to spend a lot more effort understanding recent communities, prior to industrialization. We need to work out what community structure looked like before human-caused climate change, and what has happened since, to do a better job at predicting what will happen in the future.”

300x250x1

According to the release, the fossil record is the most complete and extensive archive of biological changes available to science and by applying advanced computational analyses to the archive, researchers were able to detail the global community structure of the oceans dating back millions of years.

A key finding of the study was that during the “early eocene climatic optimum,” a geological era with sustained high global temperatures equivalent to today’s worst case global warming scenarios, marine plankton communities moved to higher latitudes and only the most specialized plankton remained near the equator, suggesting that the tropical temperatures prevented higher amounts of biodiversity.

“Considering that three billion people live in the tropics, the lack of biodiversity at higher temperatures is not great news,” paper co-leader Adam Woodhouse said in the release.

Next, the team plans to apply similar research methods to other marine plankton groups.

Read More: Global study, UVic researcher analyze how mammals responded during pandemic

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Science

Scientists Say They Have Found New Evidence Of An Unknown Planet… – 2oceansvibe News

Published

 on


In the new work, scientists looked at a set of trans-Neptunian objects, or TNOs, which is the technical term for those objects that sit out at the edge of the solar system, beyond Neptune

The new work looked at those objects that have their movement made unstable because they interact with the orbit of Neptune. That instability meant they were harder to understand, so typically astronomers looking at a possible Planet Nine have avoided using them in their analysis.

Researchers instead looked towards those objects and tried to understand their movements. And, Dr Bogytin claimed, the best explanation is that they result from another, undiscovered planet.

300x250x1

The team carried out a host of simulations to understand how those objects’ orbits were affected by a variety of things, including the giant planets around them such as Neptune, the “Galactic tide” that comes from the Milky Way, and passing stars.

The best explanation was from the model that included Planet 9, however, Dr Bogytin said. They noted that there were other explanations for the behaviour of those objects – including the suggestion that other planets once influenced their orbit, but have since been removed – but claim that the theory of Planet 9 remains the best explanation.

A better understanding of the existence or not of Planet 9 will come when the Vera C Rubin Observatory is turned on, the authors note. The observatory is currently being built in Chile, and when it is turned on it will be able to scan the sky to understand the behaviour of those distant objects.

Planet Nine is theorised to have a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbit about 20 times farther from the Sun on average than Neptune. It may take between 10,000 and 20,000 Earth years to make one full orbit around the Sun.

You may be tempted to ask how an entire planet could ‘hide’ in our solar system when we have zooming capabilities such as the new iPhone 15 has, but consider this: If Earth was the size of a marble, the edge of our solar system would be 11 kilometres away. That’s a lot of space to hide a planet.

[source:independent]

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Science

Dragonfly: NASA Just Confirmed The Most Exciting Space Mission Of Your Lifetime – Forbes

Published

 on


NASA has confirmed that its exciting Dragonfly mission, which will fly a drone-like craft around Saturn’s largest moon, Titan, will cost $3.35 billion and launch in July 2028.

Titan is the only other world in the solar system other than Earth that has weather and liquid on the surface. It has an atmosphere, rain, lakes, oceans, shorelines, valleys, mountain ridges, mesas and dunes—and possibly the building blocks of life itself. It’s been described as both a utopia and as deranged because of its weird chemistry.

Set to reach Titan in 2034, the Dragonfly mission will last for two years once its lander arrives on the surface. During the mission, a rotorcraft will fly to a new location every Titan day (16 Earth days) to take samples of the giant moon’s prebiotic chemistry. Here’s what else it will do:

300x250x1
  • Search for chemical biosignatures, past or present, from water-based life to that which might use liquid hydrocarbons.
  • Investigate the moon’s active methane cycle.
  • Explore the prebiotic chemistry in the atmosphere and on the surface.

Spectacular Mission

“Dragonfly is a spectacular science mission with broad community interest, and we are excited to take the next steps on this mission,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator of the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Exploring Titan will push the boundaries of what we can do with rotorcraft outside of Earth.”

It comes in the wake of the Mars Helicopter, nicknamed Ingenuity, which flew 72 times between April 2021 and its final flight in January 2023 despite only being expected to make up to five experimental test flights over 30 days. It just made its final downlink of data this week.

Dense Atmosphere

However, Titan is a completely different environment to Mars. Titan has a dense atmosphere on Titan, which will make buoyancy simple. Gravity on Titan is just 14% of the Earth’s. It sees just 1% of the sunlight received by Earth.

function loadConnatixScript(document)
if (!window.cnxel)
window.cnxel = ;
window.cnxel.cmd = [];
var iframe = document.createElement(‘iframe’);
iframe.style.display = ‘none’;
iframe.onload = function()
var iframeDoc = iframe.contentWindow.document;
var script = iframeDoc.createElement(‘script’);
script.src = ‘//cd.elements.video/player.js’ + ‘?cid=’ + ’62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a’;
script.setAttribute(‘defer’, ‘1’);
script.setAttribute(‘type’, ‘text/javascript’);
iframeDoc.body.appendChild(script);
;
document.head.appendChild(iframe);

loadConnatixScript(document);

(function()
function createUniqueId()
return ‘xxxxxxxx-xxxx-4xxx-yxxx-xxxxxxxxxxxx’.replace(/[xy]/g, function(c) 0x8);
return v.toString(16);
);

const randId = createUniqueId();
document.getElementsByClassName(‘fbs-cnx’)[0].setAttribute(‘id’, randId);
document.getElementById(randId).removeAttribute(‘class’);
(new Image()).src = ‘https://capi.elements.video/tr/si?token=’ + ’44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a’ + ‘&cid=’ + ’62cec241-7d09-4462-afc2-f72f8d8ef40a’;
cnxel.cmd.push(function ()
cnxel(
playerId: ’44f947fb-a5ce-41f1-a4fc-78dcf31c262a’,
playlistId: ‘aff7f449-8e5d-4c43-8dca-16dfb7dc05b9’,
).render(randId);
);
)();

The atmosphere is 98% nitrogen and 2% methane. Its seas and lakes are not water but liquid ethane and methane. The latter is gas in Titan’s atmosphere, but on its surface, it exists as a liquid in rain, snow, lakes, and ice on its surface.

COVID-Affected

Dragonfly was a victim of the pandemic. Slated to cost $1 billion when it was selected in 2019, it was meant to launch in 2026 and arrive in 2034 after an eight-year cruise phase. However, after delays due to COVID, NASA decided to compensate for the inevitable delayed launch by funding a heavy-lift launch vehicle to massively shorten the mission’s cruise phase.

The end result is that Dragonfly will take off two years later but arrive on schedule.

Previous Visit

Dragonfly won’t be the first time a robotic probe has visited Titan. As part of NASA’s landmark Cassini mission to Saturn between 2004 and 2017, a small probe called Huygens was despatched into Titan’s clouds on January 14, 2005. The resulting timelapse movie of its 2.5 hours descent—which heralded humanity’s first-ever (and only) views of Titan’s surface—is a must-see for space fans. It landed in an area of rounded blocks of ice, but on the way down, it saw ancient dry shorelines reminiscent of Earth as well as rivers of methane.

The announcement by NASA makes July 2028 a month worth circling for space fans, with a long-duration total solar eclipse set for July 22, 2028, in Australia and New Zealand.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending