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National Bank of Canada Forecasts Sharpest Real Estate Price Decline Ever – Better Dwelling

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One of Canada’s Big Six banks is joining the CMHC and credit risk agencies in forecasting lower prices. National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists expect real estate prices to make a sharp drop this year. The bank is calling what would be the largest price drop in Canada’s history, with Toronto and Vancouver hit hardest.

Canadian Real Estate To Get Biggest Recession Price Drop In Years

The bank’s forecasting the largest recession drop for real estate prices in Canada’s history. Prices are forecasted to fall an average of 9.8% from 2020-2021. To contrast, prices dropped just 6.3% during the 2008 recession. During the 1981 recession, the largest home price correction to date, prices dropped 9.2%. This is on the low end of Canada’s national housing agency’s forecast, and below most risk agencies.

Canadian Real Estate Declines

Canadian home price declines over the past 3 recessions, and National Bank of Canada’s forecast.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling.

The forecast does model region variances, with the largest drops in expensive cities. Toronto real estate prices are forecasted to dip 13% from the end of the year through next year. Vancouver real estate prices are forecasted to fall 12% over the same period. Montreal, which only started to climb quickly recently, is expected to see a 7% price decline. Montreal’s price gains lagged national gains, so a smaller impact wouldn’t be a surprise.

Canadian Real Estate Declines By Region

National Bank of Canada’s forecasted price declines by major market.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Better Dwelling.

Unemployment Is Rising, and Immigration Is Expected To Fall

The biggest contribution to this trend is expected to be unemployment. The bank sees retail, accommodation and restaurants, and the arts impacted longer. They also see unemployment averaging out at 9% by year end. This is lower than most other bank forecasts, but still high enough for a recessionary environment by itself. They expect this to have a big impact on immigration.

The hit to employment is expected to have some fall out when it comes to immigration over the next few years. Canada doesn’t have a plan to lower immigration. In fact, the government plans to stick to its population growth strategy, which would see mild increases. Despite this, the bank’s economists note during recessionary periods, immigration voluntarily declines. This trend is observed in all three previous recessions, and expected to occur in this one.

Canadian Immigration

The rolling 12-month sum of immigrants to Canada.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

Low Interest Rates Not Expected To Have The Same Impact

During past recessions, lowering interest rates helped to stabilize real estate markets. This is expected to have a smaller impact this time, since rates were already very low to begin with. The bank notes 5-year mortgage rates only declined 17 bps from the beginning of the pandemic, to now. To contrast, the overnight rate has shed 150 bps over the same period. When home prices are at record highs, and mortgage rates at record lows – lenders now face a high risk and low reward prospect.

NBC’s forecast is mostly in line with Canada’s other Big Six banks, which see declines in this range. CIBC notably stated they expect Toronto and Vancouver to see bigger price corrections than the rest of the country. The big banks, credit agencies, and national housing agencies all have similar timelines though – with significant price declines not showing until the second half of the year.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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