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NATO is getting ready to twist Canada’s arm on defence spending

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As the old saying goes, there are some things one must never discuss in polite company. Politics and money usually top the list.

If you’ve ever been to a NATO leaders’ summit, you know these gatherings are the epitome of polite company (with the exception of Donald Trump).

NATO leaders — at least in public — sometimes go far, far out of their way to avoid criticizing other leaders and nations, especially those who are perceived as not pulling their weight.

A military alliance looking to present a solid front to an uncertain outside world hates any real or perceived signs of division.

There was, however, one cringe-worthy moment at the 2019 NATO leaders’ summit that’s worth noting in the context of storm clouds building over this year’s planned event in Vilnius, Lithuania. A bullish President Trump turned to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — in full view of the cameras and after being questioned about the adequacy of Canada’s defence spending — and asked, “So, what is your number anyway?”

 

NATO is a lot stronger now that Finland has joined the alliance, says Ambassador

 

“NATO is a lot stronger, because our armed forces are very strong. We have, of course, the capability to work under Arctic conditions and we are happy to share this knowledge also with our partners,” says Finland’s Ambassador to Canada Roy Eriksson after his country joined the defensive alliance this week.

He was asking how far off Canada was from achieving the alliance-driven benchmark of spending two per cent of national gross domestic product on defence. Members of the Canadian delegation accompanying Trudeau, seated to one side of the two leaders, began barking out numbers, some of them conflicting. (The consensus they landed on at the time was 1.39 per cent of GDP).

It was a made-for-TV moment that almost never happens at the kind of highly stage-managed summit NATO is used to presenting.

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk prior to a NATO roundtable meeting at The Grove hotel and resort in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, on Dec. 4, 2019. (Frank Augstein/The Associated Press)

As he welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken along with the alliance’s newest member, Finland, to this week’s regular foreign ministers meeting, NATO Sec. Gen. Jens Stoltenberg casually rolled a verbal grenade across the floor when talking about the agenda.

“We will also address how to ensure that allies are investing enough in defence, and we will start preparations for the summit in Vilnius, where I expect allies to agree a more ambitious pledge, to regard 2 per cent of GDP for defence not as a ceiling but a floor, a minimum, that we should all meet,” Stoltenberg said.

Canada has no plan to meet NATO’s target

In late March, NATO published an annual report that shows Canada’s defence spending amounted to just 1.29 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2022-2023.

It’s not much of a stretch to say Canada has no plan to meet that 2 per cent target. There wasn’t one when the previous Conservative government signed on to the notion at the 2014 NATO leaders summit (when the goal was for allies to reach 2 per cent by 2024).

The Liberal government’s 2017 defence policy tiptoed around the subject. Whenever they’ve been asked about it since, Trudeau and his ministers have bobbed and weaved and talked about what Canada delivers in terms of capability.

Their latest talking points are that Canada has the sixth largest defence budget in NATO and the country is among the top contributors to the alliance’s $4.8 billion common fund, the budget that pays for the headquarters, joint operations and major construction investments.

The pressure on Canada to focus on funding the needs of its own military, as opposed to the overall alliance, is growing — especially since Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine last year.

In a French-language speech delivered in Montreal last Tuesday, France’s Ambassador to Canada Michel Miraillet trumpeted his country’s recent boost in military spending and proposals for deeper European military cooperation.

A ‘weak defence effort’

He suggested Canada needs to demonstrate a similar commitment to global security.

“The same goes for Canada and its weak defence effort, nevertheless, somewhat forgetful of the memory of its past commitments, of the courage shown in all major conflicts, as in peacekeeping operations,” Miraillet said in remarks quoted by The Canadian Press.

In an interview with the London bureau of CBC News this week, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly was asked point-blank about Stoltenberg’s assertion that allies would soon consider the two per cent benchmark the floor, not the ceiling.

She responded that Canada recognized the world changed with the war in Ukraine and that tensions in the Indo-Pacific mean “we need to make sure that we step up our game and that’s what we’ll do.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, left, speaks with Foreign Minister Melanie Joly during a roundtable meeting at a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on June 29, 2022. (Susan Walsh/The Associated Press)

“Step up our game” may be a relative term, because Joly went on to say that the government is engaged “in a very important defence policy review, which is required before announcing any further investments.”

That defence policy review was announced in the 2022 federal budget. A year later, shortly after presenting its latest fiscal plan, the government announced there would be public consultations on how best to defend Canada in a more uncertain world.

The best-case scenario, according to several experts, is the defence policy being delivered next year and the necessary investments being made at some indeterminate point in the future.

A U.S. F-35 fighter jet flies over the Eifel Mountains near Spangdahlem, Germany, on Feb. 23, 2022. When pressed about military spending, the federal government sometimes cites its plan to buy fighter jets. (Harald Tittel/The Associated Press)

In fairness, the Liberals have committed to spending $19 billion on new fighter jets, starting in 2026. They have agreed to put $4.9 billion toward modernizing continental defence through NORAD.

But ahead of President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Ottawa, the Americans were expressing their impatience with Canada’s habit of kicking defence expenditures down the road and publicly pressed for projects to be moved forward more swiftly.

The Liberal government’s answer was to put a price tag on modernizing airfields and infrastructure to accommodate the new F-35s. The timeline for delivery, however, remained the same. The only project to hit the fast-track, according to defence experts, was an Arctic over-the-horizon radar station.

Two different government sources said the matter of meeting the two per cent defence spending target wasn’t even raised when Biden and Trudeau met.

The Americans, it seems, have slipped back into polite company mode.

Asked this week on CBC’s Power & Politics about Canada’s defence spending, U.S. Sen. (D) Chris Coons politely deferred.

“I think that’s a decision for Canada and the Canadian people to make, but I am satisfied that we have a close partnership, an alliance, that we are making progress towards improving our security,” he said.

 

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RCMP end latest N.B. search regarding teenage girl who went missing in 2021

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BATHURST, N.B. – RCMP in New Brunswick say a weekend ground search for evidence related to the disappearance of a teenage girl in 2021 didn’t reveal any new information.

In an emailed statement, the RCMP said 20 people participated in the search for evidence in the case of Madison Roy-Boudreau of Bathurst.

The release said the search occurred in the Middle River area, just south of the girl’s hometown.

Police have said the 14-year-old’s disappearance is being treated as a homicide investigation.

The RCMP said the search “did not reveal any new information regarding the circumstances of her disappearance.”

There are no plans for another search until police receive a tip or a lead pointing to a new search area.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Man Tasered after trespassing in Victoria school, forcing lockdown

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VICTORIA – A middle school in Victoria was forced into a lockdown after a man entered the building without permission, and police say they had to use a stun gun to make an arrest.

Victoria police say officers received multiple calls around noon on Monday of an unknown male entering Central Middle School, leading staff to set off emergency procedures that put the building under lockdown.

Police say its emergency response team arrived within minutes and found the suspect, who “appeared to be in a drug-induced state,” in the school’s library.

A statement from police says the suspect resisted arrest, and officers had to use a Taser to subdue the man.

He’s being held by police and has been assessed by emergency medical staff.

Police say the man was not armed and there were no continuing safety concerns for students and staff following the arrest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. Greens’ ex- leader Weaver thinks minority deal with NDP less likely than in 2017

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VANCOUVER – Former B.C. Green leader Andrew Weaver knows what it’s like to form a minority government with the NDP, but says such a deal to create the province’s next administration is less likely this time than seven years ago.

Weaver struck a power-sharing agreement that resulted in John Horgan’s NDP minority government in 2017, but said in an interview Monday there is now more animosity between the two parties.

Neither the NDP nor the B.C. Conservatives secured a majority in Saturday’s election, raising the prospect of a minority NDP government if Leader David Eby can get the support of two Green legislators.

Manual recounts in two ridings could also play an important role in the outcome, which will not be known for about a week.

Weaver, who is no longer a member of the Greens, endorsed a Conservative candidate in his home riding.

He said Eby would be in a better position to negotiate if Furstenau, who lost her seat, stepped aside as party leader.

“I think Mr. Eby would be able to have fresh discussions with fresh new faces around the table, (after) four years of political sniping … between Sonia and the NDP in the B.C. legislature,” he said.

He said Furstenau’s loss put the two elected Greens in an awkward position because parties “need the leader in the legislature.”

Furstenau could resign as leader or one of the elected Greens could step down and let her run in a byelection in their riding, he said.

“They need to resolve that issue sooner rather than later,” he said.

The Green victories went to Rob Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands and Jeremy Valeriote in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

Neither Botterell nor Valeriote have held seats in the legislature before, Weaver noted.

“It’s not like in 2017 when, you know, I had been in the (legislature) for four years already,” Weaver said, adding that “the learning curve is steep.”

Sanjay Jeram, chair of undergraduate studies in political science at Simon Fraser University, said he doesn’t think it’ll be an “easygoing relationship between (the NDP and Greens) this time around.”

“I don’t know if Eby and Furstenau have the same relationship — or the potential to have the same relationship — as Horgan and Weaver did,” he said. “I think their demands will be a little more strict and it’ll be a little more of a cold alliance than it was in 2017 if they do form an alliance.”

Horgan and Weaver shook hands on a confidence-and-supply agreement before attending a rugby match, where they were spotted sitting together before the deal became public knowledge.

Eby said in his election-night speech that he had already reached out to Furstenau and suggested common “progressive values” between their parties.

Furstenau said in her concession speech that her party was poised to play a “pivotal role” in the legislature.

Botterell said in an election-night interview that he was “totally supportive of Sonia” and he would “do everything I can to support her and the path forward that she chooses to take because that’s her decision.”

The Green Party of Canada issued a news release Monday, congratulating the candidates on their victories, noting Valeriote’s win is the first time that a Green MLA has been elected outside of Vancouver Island.

“Now, like all British Columbians we await the final seat count to know which party will have the best chance to form government. Let’s hope that the Green caucus has a pivotal role,” the release said, echoing Furstenau’s turn of phrase.

The final results of the election won’t be known until at least next week.

Elections BC says manual recounts will be held on Oct. 26 to 28 in two ridings where NDP candidates led B.C. Conservatives by fewer than 100 votes after the initial count ended on Sunday.

The outcomes in Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat could determine who forms government.

The election’s initial results have the NDP elected or leading in 46 ridings, and the B.C. Conservatives in 45, both short of the 47 majority mark in B.C.’s 93-seat legislature.

If the Conservatives win both of the recount ridings and win all other ridings where they lead, Rustad will win with a one-seat majority.

If the NDP holds onto at least one of the ridings where there are recounts, wins the other races it leads, and strikes a deal with the Greens, they would have enough numbers to form a minority government.

But another election could also be on the cards, since the winner will have to nominate a Speaker, reducing the government’s numbers in the legislature by one vote.

Elections BC says it will also be counting about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots from Oct. 26 to 28.

The NDP went into the election with 55 ridings, representing a comfortable majority in what was then an 87-seat legislature.

Jeram, with Simon Fraser University, said though the counts aren’t finalized, the Conservatives were the big winners in the election.

“They weren’t really a not much of a formal party until not that long ago, and to go from two per cent of the vote to winning 45 or more seats in the B.C. provincial election is just incredible,” he said in an interview Monday.

Jeram said people had expected Eby to call an election after he took over from John Horgan in 2022, and if he had, he doesn’t think there would have been the same result.

He said the B.C. Conservative’s popularity grew as a result of the decision of the BC Liberals to rebrand as BC United and later drop out.

“Had Eby called an election before that really shook out, and maybe especially before (Pierre) Poilievre, kind of really had the wind in his sails and started to grow, I think he could have won the majority for sure.”

He said he wasn’t surprised by the results of the election, saying polls were fairly accurate.

“Ultimately, it really was a result that we saw coming for a while, since the moment that BC United withdrew and put their support behind the conservatives, I think this was the outcome that was expected.”

— With files from Darryl Greer

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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