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NDP looks to take advantage of Liberals' polling slump by pushing for policy wins: sources – CBC.ca

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Knowing that the Liberals have little appetite for an election over the coming year, the NDP is looking to push the federal government for more policy concessions, party sources tell Radio-Canada.

“[The Liberals] do not want to go to an election and it shows,” a New Democrat source said.

With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s team now facing a marked drop in the polls, the NDP is trying to assert itself. “We feel we have levers,” the source added.

In 2022, the NDP agreed to support the minority Liberal government in the House of Commons and stave off an election until 2025 through a confidence-and-supply agreement. In exchange, the Liberals agreed to move on certain shared priorities, such as a national dental program for low-income Canadians.

But behind the scenes, Jagmeet Singh’s party is now trying to secure additional concessions — including housing and cost-of-living commitments — in exchange for the NDP’s continued support.

This account is based on two senior NDP sources who are aware of the negotiations, along with a Liberal source familiar with the party’s thinking about the timing of the next election.

Party sources say the NDP wants the government to announce it’s renewing the GST credit for vulnerable Canadians in its fall economic statement. The two parties are also discussing measures to speed up construction of affordable housing.

When asked, the Prime Minister’s Office didn’t deny that New Democrats are pushing for more concessions. A PMO spokesperson said the government is in regular contact with the NDP.

WATCH | NDP to use deal with Liberals to ‘force’ more action on housing, Singh says

NDP to use deal with Liberals to ‘force’ more action on housing, Singh says

11 hours ago

Duration 10:38

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh told Power & Politics Tuesday that his party is going to use the supply and confidence agreement to “force” the Liberal government to take more action on affordable housing. He says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau doesn’t understand the seriousness of the housing crisis.

“We focus on our common interests rather than our legitimate differences,” the spokesperson said in a French statement.

Speaking with CBC News Network’s Power & Politics on Tuesday about the government’s housing policy, Singh said his party isn’t limited to the concessions in the original confidence-and-supply agreement. 

“The agreement gives us the ability to negotiate and force this government to do more. Housing is one of the priorities that we have,” he told guest host Travis Dhanraj.

Conversations between the two parties are nothing new but they’ve become more frequent in recent weeks, said both Liberal and NDP sources. The NDP is not looking for a completely new version of the agreement but it now wants to get more out of it, one party source said.

Members of the federal cabinet applaud as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives for a media availability after a cabinet shuffle at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on July 26, 2023. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

The original agreement notably provided for the creation of a fund to accelerate the construction of housing, the implementation of a charter of rights for home buyers and a top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit in 2022.

New Democrats say they know there is a political cost to associating with the Liberal government and are looking for wins they can present to voters in the next federal election.

Right now, sources said, the NDP feels it has the upper hand on the governing party.

“We feel that the Liberals want our support so that it lasts longer,” said one senior NDP source.

Election in 2024 or 2025?

Inside Liberal party ranks, the summer polls have had the effect of a cold shower. The results of an Abacus poll published on Aug. 25 suggest the Liberals are 12 points behind the Conservatives nationally.

Just a few months ago, Liberal sources were quick to point to the spring of 2024 as the first possible window for holding an election. That eagerness has since evaporated and several Liberal sources are now talking about fall 2024 or spring 2025 as their earliest preferred dates.

Liberal insiders said they are betting on better economic news before the next election and believe voters’ anxieties about the cost of living could calm down by then. Interest rates are not likely to fall before next summer, Liberal sources said.

Some sources also suggest that the U.S. election next fall could affect the political dynamic on this side of the border — especially if former president Donald Trump returns to power.

Faced with discouraging polls, some Liberals argue that new ministers should be given at least a year to make their marks and generate results they can present to voters.

New Democrats are in no hurry

Members of Trudeau’s team remember the harsh criticism they faced for calling an early election in 2021, when the country still hadn’t emerged from the pandemic.

“No one wants to go through that again,” said one Liberal source.

As he shuffled his cabinet in July, Trudeau signalled that he was in no rush to call an election. “The elections are not scheduled before the fall of 2025 and we have a lot to do to deliver for Canadians,” he said in French. 

If New Democrats want to capitalize on the Liberals’ bad luck, they could do so by threatening to force an election, said an NDP source.

But Singh’s team seems ready to show patience. There are still elements of its agreement with the government that the NDP wants to achieve, said the source.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at Canada’s Building Trades Unions (CBTU) conference in Gatineau, Que. on May 9, 2023. Poilievre’s Conservatives are actively courting the labour vote. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

Some New Democrats believe a federal law to prohibit the use of replacement workers during strikes could help improve relations between the party and the labour movement. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are actively trying to court unionized workers.

New Democrats are also aware that forcing an election is always a gamble. “The NDP has no advantage in calling an election to end up with a Conservative government in power,” an NDP MP, who was not authorized to speak publicly, told Radio-Canada.

Some New Democrats fear that a Conservative government would force a rightward policy shift, undermining any chance of advancing a progressive agenda. They warn that left-leaning voters could blame Singh if the Conservative Party is swept into power.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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