Economy

New infections are still the biggest risk to the economy – CNN

Published

4 years ago

June 8, 2020

The lion’s share of economists participating in the June National Associate of Business Economics Outlook Survey — 87% — believe a second wave of infections could imperil a rebound and become the biggest danger to America’s economy this year.

The pandemic has claimed more than 100,000 lives in the United States and forced the country to go into lockdown in March. Businesses shuttered and laid off millions of people, leading to the steepest job losses on record — 20.7 million — in April.

The labor market bounced back strongly in May, adding 2.5 million new jobs as states begin to reopen. But the staggered restart of the economy could lead to renewed spreading of the highly contagious virus. This could, in turn, lead to a second lockdown that would bring yet more economic pain.

Against this backdrop, 80% of NABE survey participants were pessimistic about the US economic outlook.

By the final quarter of this year, America’s gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the economy — will still be 5.6% lower than the same period in 2019, according to the median NABE estimate. The current, second quarter of this year is expected to be the low-point of the recession, as it will include most of the lockdown period. Revisions to first quarter GDP showed the US economy shrank by 5% between January and March.

America’s economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending, which is expected to decrease by 6.4% this year before rebounding in 2021.

Next year, GDP will rebound to grow 4.8%, the survey participants said, but most do not expect the economy to return to its pre-pandemic level until at least the second half of 2021.

Washington has rolled out a multi-trillion dollar stimulus package to help get the country through the crisis. As a result, the federal deficit is expected to balloon to $3.4 trillion in 2020, more than three times the size of last year’s deficit [the Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit could be $3.7 trillion]. In 2021, the deficit is expected to fall to $2.1 trillion, the NABE survey participants said.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, 51% believe a vaccine against the disease would provide the biggest upside to the US economy.

The research for a vaccine is ongoing around the world, with some potential candidates already in human trials. Biotech company Moderna (MRNA) set off a frenzy in financial markets in May after announcing positive preliminary results of a trial.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

10 hours ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

Published

17 hours ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

Published

2 days ago

September 12, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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