(Bloomberg) — After New York officially shut down during the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of luxury residential real estate listings in the city plummeted. No one could visit a house, most brokers reasoned. What was the point of letting an apartment go stale?
“I did take several listings off the market, and I postponed and canceled putting several more on the market at the beginning of March,” says Tamir Shemesh, founder of the Shemesh Team at Douglas Elliman. “You can’t expect a buyer to purchase an apartment without seeing it.”
So buyers and sellers waited in the wings until the city showed signs of reopening. In doing so, they missed the all-important spring sales season, reasoning that an explosion of listings after Memorial Day would meet the city’s pent-up demand.
“We’ve been holding everything back except a few properties below $1 million,” says Brian Meier, a principal at the Meier Estates & Ventures Team at Christie’s International Real Estate. (Properties that cost below $1 million, he says, are subject to “more basic demand.”)
Now the shutdown has stretched into mid-June, effectively canceling the long-anticipated Memorial Day listings bonanza. In the week starting on May 25, just 166 new listings hit the Manhattan market, according to UrbanDigs—a 61% drop from the same week in 2019.
“Had the lockdown lifted in early June, I think the market would have really taken off,” says Erin Boisson Aries, founder of the Erin Boisson Aries Team at Christie’s International Real Estate in New York. “Now it looks like it’s going to be right smack in the middle of July 4th week, and that’s not the busiest time.”
Aries says that she has about four apartments below $5 million that she’ll list immediately after the shelter-in-place order has lifted. “But the more expensive listings, above $10 million, will wait [to be put on the market] until the fall. I think a lot of people have left the city and gone to their second homes, and more expensive properties require in-home showings.”
If additional brokers take the same tack as Aries has—and many say they will—it could have profound implications for both buyers and sellers, possibly for years to come. A slow summer sales season could depress prices. If that slow season is followed by a flood of inventory, prices could fall even further.
“There’s a chance for a bounceback,” says Meier. “If it goes past the fall, [sellers] won’t want to go another winter without having their properties on the market,” at which point their houses will be listed, regardless of whether the market has picked up.
A tsunami of delayed luxury listings hitting the market all at once “would be the worst possible scenario,” says Mark Amadei, a senior global real estate advisor at Sotheby’s International Realty. An oversupply, he says, could suppress prices. “We need to [slowly] work up inventory.”
Waiting to Come Back
There’s no question that the inventory is there.
Before the pandemic, Manhattan had more than 7,000 active listings. Now, there are around 5,300, according to UrbanDigs.
Factor in the listings that were taken off and come back, plus new listings from existing homeowners, plus even more listings from luxury developments that have been recently completed, and Meier says he expects the number of listings to exceed 8,000.
That doesn’t even include Brooklyn.
“There are just a lot of properties off the market, waiting to come back,” he says.
Priced for Success
So this summer is not on track to be a seller’s market. Still, people will always need houses, and post-pandemic volatility (people moving to be within walking distance of their work, a child’s school, or in search of outdoor space) could work in some sellers’ favor—providing, brokers say, they’re willing to accept some kind of discount.
Aries’s team compiled a report of contracts signed for the month of May; in the luxury category above $4 million, she says, listings sold for an average discount of 10.27% from the initial asking price.
“It all depends on price,” Shemesh says. “If it’s priced well, it will do well.”
When a luxury apartment is in a more attainable range for the city’s professional class of lawyers, doctors, and tech workers—figure $1 million to $5 million—there’s a higher likelihood it will find a buyer. “Most of the interactions I’ve been having are in the $1 million to $2 million range,” Aries says. “These are sales based on need, where someone needs to move to New York for work.”
It also helps if the housing type is close to the types of services or businesses its buyers frequent most. A one-bedroom next to such schools as Spence or Dalton, in other words, won’t see an uptick in demand because those shoppers don’t have kids. A family-friendly townhouse might.
Amadei, who specializes in townhouses, says that the hard inquiries he’s received have been from “buyers looking to reposition themselves geographically for the school year.” Families that would ordinarily send their kids to school on public transportation, he continues, are now rethinking their commutes.
“If you have a kid in school, what are you going to do, homeschool them?” he asks. “Families, which tend to be the primary buyers for townhouses, are a little less flexible.”
Buyer’s Market
Bad news for sellers could be very good news for buyers, particularly those looking at the very top of the market. “The thing with the high end—with an owner of something over $10 million—they live in a different world than us,” Meier says. “When they do sell, they’re willing to take a loss, because it’s not their biggest asset.”
Some buyers, Shemesh adds, are saying: “Hey, this was going for X in 2015; today, I can get it for 70 cents on the dollar. I’m pulling the trigger.”
A note of caution: Even though there are deals to be found, brokers say that buyers hoping to get 50% off shouldn’t hold their breath.
Shemesh says that some of the buyers he works with are saying, “Oh, there’s no way I’m buying an apartment, because six months from now I’m going to get 20%, 30%—even more off.” That, he continues, is unrealistic, given that the luxury real estate market “had already been going down since the third quarter of 2015,” and, at least in theory, can’t fall much further before it hits the bottom.
Eventually, Shemesh concludes, prices will come back.
“I’ve been through the Lehman collapse, September 11, the dot-com bubble bursting,” he says. “At the end of the day, New York is still the capital of the world, and people want to live here.”
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
