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Economy

New Zealand Is on Brink of Recession After Economy Contracts

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7 days ago

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(Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s economy contracted by more than expected in the final three months of 2022, putting it on the brink of recession and prompting investors to lower bets on the pace of further interest-rate hikes.

The currency and government bond yields declined after gross domestic product fell 0.6% from the third quarter, compared with expectations for a 0.2% drop, official data showed Thursday. Should the economy fail to expand in the current cyclone-hit quarter, as some economists forecast, it would have entered a recession six months earlier than the Reserve Bank predicted.

That could prompt policymakers to further slow the pace of tightening, and money markets are pricing in just a 50% chance of a rate rise at the April 5 meeting, from 95% yesterday. Financial stress at Credit Suisse Group AG and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US further cloud the picture and are damping expectations for further hikes by the Federal Reserve.

“The crucial thing for the RBNZ is that the starting point for the economy is substantially less stretched than they thought,” said Michael Gordon, acting New Zealand chief economist at Westpac Banking Corp. “And that matters for how much of a slowdown is needed to bring inflation back under control.”

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New Zealand’s dollar dropped to as low as 61.40 US cents in Wellington after the release, from 61.86 cents beforehand, before paring losses. Bond yields also slid.

The RBNZ, which is aiming to engineer a recession in 2023 to suppress demand and rein in inflation, predicted growth of 0.7% for the fourth quarter. The central bank had forecast the economy would enter recession in the second quarter of this year.

The earlier slump in growth adds to signs that higher borrowing costs are starting to curb consumption and could slow inflation faster than the central bank expects.

That suggests it won’t need to be as aggressive with rate hikes as it projected last month, when policymakers lifted the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% and maintained a forecast that it will reach 5.5% this year.

Most economists expect the RBNZ will raise the OCR by 25 points next month.

ASB Bank economists today said they no longer expect a 50-point move, saying “the weaker starting point for economic activity and increased financial markets jitters overseas suggest less urgency for RBNZ rate hikes.”

Prospects of a shrinking economy will pose a headache for Prime Minister Chris Hipkins who faces an election in October. The ruling Labour Party is under pressure to deal with a cost—of-living crisis and faces a significant fiscal bill to rebuild after a recent cyclone.

Today, the Council of Trade Unions, which is aligned with Labour, said it would “question the need for further significant increases in the OCR as growth is declining more quickly than anticipated and further hikes may cause unnecessary economic pain for working people.”

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NOVA Chemicals sets bold ESG aspirations to lead the plastics circular economy – Financial Post

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6 hours ago

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March 22, 2023

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NOVA Chemicals' 2030 aspirations include 30% of its polyethylene sales being from recycled content
NOVA Chemicals’ 2030 aspirations include 30% of its polyethylene sales being from recycled content GNW

• Net-zero by 2050 • 30 per cent of polyethylene sales from recycled content by 2030 • Reduce Scope 1 and 2 absolute CO2 emissions by 30 per cent • Become a Top 30 company in Canada •Investment of USD $2-4 billion

CALGARY, AB, March 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — NOVA Chemicals Corporation (“NOVA Chemicals”) today announced sector-leading ESG ambitions to drive the circular economy for plastics, in line with its vision to become the leading sustainable polyethylene producer in North America.

By 2030, the company aims to:

  • Set new industry standards for driving the transition to the plastics circular economy and solidifying the market for recycled polyethylene, with 30 per cent of its polyethylene sales[i] from recycled contet;
  • Be at the forefront of decarbonization by reducing its Scope 1 and 2 absoute CO2 emissions by 30 per cent[ii]; and
  • Become a Top 30 company in Canada.

Outlined in NOVA 2030: Our Roadmap to Sustainability Leadership, NOVA Chemicals has also shared its aspiration to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050.

“NOVA’s Roadmap to Sustainability Leadership details a strong plan forward for the company to become the leader in sustainable polyethylene production while building on our commitments to developing innovative solutions for our customers, enabling the circular economy, and being a responsible steward of our environment,” stated Danny Dweik, CEO. “Plastic products play an essential role in our daily lives. With our renewed purpose of reshaping plastics for a better, more sustainable world, we have developed a clear pathway to become a catalyst for a low carbon, zero-plastic-waste future.”

To achieve these aspirations, NOVA Chemicals anticipates investing between USD$2-4 billion by 2030 to expand its sustainable product offerings, decarbonize assets, and build a state-of-the-art mechanical recycling business while exploring new advanced recycling technologies to create high-quality, high-performance recyclable and low carbon plastics.

Building on its proprietary, Advanced SCLAIRTECHTM technology (AST), NOVA Chemicals will explore expanding its product portfolio to include the development of innovative, advanced materials. These new product offerings, which will include the company’s first ASTUTE™ polyolefin plastomers line, will better serve existing customers and provide more options for sustainability-focused end markets such as electric vehicles and renewables.

NOVA Chemicals has already begun growing its portfolio of recycled and recyclable polyethylene resins through its recently announced launch of SYNDIGO™ recycled polyethylene, a new portfolio of products made from circular polymers to encourage both waste and emissions reductions.

The company’s 2030 aspirations are shorter-term objectives that will help NOVA Chemicals reach its ultimate goal of achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 absolute CO2 emissions by 2050. NOVA Chemicals has developed a technical solutions-focused roadmap for decarbonizing its asset base by improving energy efficiencies, electrifying and acquiring renewable power, and exploring clean hydrogen as a low carbon fuel source and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS). The company will also continue to pursue new technologies to abate and eliminate emissions from its production processes, such as the development of its proprietary Low Emissions Ethylene Process (LEEP™) technology.

The company has also announced a virtual power purchase agreement (VPPA) with Shell Energy for renewable power, marking the first of many opportunities to increase low carbon, renewable energy in its power portfolio.

Today’s announcement builds upon NOVA Chemicals’ long-standing commitment to developing innovative solutions for its customers while enabling the circular economy and preparing for and responding to a changing world. NOVA’s approach to managing its material ESG topics including Responsible Care® and its commitment to the environment, health, and safety, can be found in its annual ESG report.

Learn more about NOVA 2030: Our Roadmap to Sustainability Leadership.

– 30 –

About NOVA Chemicals Corporation
NOVA Chemicals aspires to be the leading sustainable polyethylene producer in North America. Our driving purpose is to reshape plastics for a better, more sustainable world by delivering innovative solutions that help make everyday life healthier and safer and acting as a catalyst for a low carbon, zero-plastic-waste future. NOVA Chemicals’ innovative and quality product offerings, value chain collaboration, and unique customer experience is what sets us apart; our customers use our products to create easy-to-recycle and recycled content films, packaging, and products. Our employees work to ensure health, safety, security, and environmental stewardship through our commitment to sustainability and Responsible Care®.

NOVA Chemicals, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, has nearly 2,500 employees worldwide and is wholly owned by Mubadala Investment Company of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Learn more at www.novachem.com or follow us on LinkedIn.

NOVA Chemicals’ logo is a registered trademark of NOVA Brands Ltd.; authorized use.
Advanced SCLAIRTECH™, SYNDIGO™, LEEP™, and ASTUTE™ are trademarks of NOVA Chemicals. 
Responsible Care® is a registered trademark of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada.

This news release contains forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements require NOVA Chemicals to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. NOVA Chemicals’ forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. In addition, the forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this news release, and except as required by applicable law, NOVA Chemicals undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements to reflect new information, subsequent events or otherwise.

Statements in this news release as to future aspirations, ambitions or goals, including any projections or plans to reduce emissions or emissions intensity, and projections or plans to increased recycled polyethylene or in respect of circularity, to increase the size, value or ranking of NOVA Chemicals, or in regards to any investments or investment amounts, are forward-looking statements.  In addition, any roadmaps related to the foregoing represent forward-looking statements as well.  Any actual future results could vary depending on NOVA Chemicals’ ability to execute on a timely and successful basis, on policy and consumer support, changes in laws and regulations, unforeseen difficulties, and the outcome of research efforts or technology developments.

[i] On a volume basis
[ii] Under operational control, 2020 baseline

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Economy

‘Already past the point of no return’: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession as economic ‘engines are about to turn off’ – Yahoo Finance

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9 hours ago

 on

March 22, 2023

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A series of banking crises this month headlined by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank has forced analysts from multiple banks, including JPMorgan Chase, to rewrite their recession forecasts from scratch, as months of small victories against inflation and a relatively strong economy were potentially swept away in under two weeks.

Even if the government and the private sector are able to successfully contain contagion from the bank collapses spreading through the economy, the failures may still lead to lasting damage for the U.S. financial system. Some banks are teetering on the edge in Europe and the U.S., while jittery markets and the promise of stricter regulation could lead to a credit crunch—a steep decline in banks’ willingness to lend caused by a lack of funds.

It adds up to an impossible choice the Federal Reserve has to make when officials meet on Wednesday: Slow down the pace of interest rate hikes or plow ahead to bring down resurgent inflation and risk amplifying damage to the economy. But as far as the Fed is concerned, hopes of engineering a soft landing for the economy and avoiding a recession may already be in the rearview mirror.

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“The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return,” JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist, wrote in a note to clients Monday. “A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).”

It is still unclear how far contagion from SVB will spread. New York–based Signature Bank failed days after SVB, requiring sweeping government measures to restore confidence that account holders in both banks would be made whole, but other small-sized and regional banks remain in precarious positions. San Francisco–based First Republic remains at high risk, although larger U.S. banks banded together last week to provide a $30 billion deposit to prop up its finances. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also pledged Tuesday that the government was prepared to step in again if issues at other banks “pose the risk of contagion.” But even if depositors are safeguarded, the damage may have already been done.

“Even if central bankers successfully contain contagion, credit conditions look set to tighten more rapidly because of pressure from both markets and regulators,” JPMorgan wrote.

The analysts referred to current challenges as a possible “Minsky moment,” named after the American economist Hyman Minsky, who famously predicted that extended bull markets naturally end in epic and monumental collapses. A Minsky moment happens when the inevitable check comes due and the house of cards finally falls down. JPMorgan analysts wrote our Minsky moment is nearing as the past few weeks alone have seen a number of economic and geopolitical threats to the world, including banking crises on both sides of the Atlantic, China striking a new diplomatic deal with Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile trip to Moscow and visit with sanctioned Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who was recently issued an international arrest warrant for war crimes committed in Ukraine.

Investors and historians have warned for years that an extended bull market in the U.S. since 2009 would inevitably lead to an economic overcorrection: “The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble,” investor and market historian Jeremy Grantham wrote in 2021. More recently, Grantham has been warning of an all-consuming “everything bubble,” which he called “pretty damn big” during an interview this month with economist David Rosenberg.

“‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,’” JPMorgan analysts wrote, citing a famous Vladimir Lenin quote.

JPMorgan isn’t the only major bank to have downgraded its economic forecasts in recent weeks; Goldman Sachs also told clients last week the banking crisis could deliver a severe blow to U.S. economic growth. And former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has warned multiple times in recent months even before the banking crisis that the economy could be headed for a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” having already run off a cliff edge but still blissfully unaware of the sudden crash about to happen.

The longest bull market in U.S. history that began in 2009 only ended in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-lived 2020 recession was quickly replaced by another ferocious bull market in 2021, but after a year of slowing growth, the long-awaited Minsky or Wile E. Coyote moment may have finally arrived.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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The US interest-rate decision the world is watching – BBC

Published

13 hours ago

 on

March 22, 2023

By


Jerome PowellReuters
By Natalie Sherman
Business reporter, New York

The global economy is facing a slew of problems – and all eyes are looking in one direction: America.

Two banking failures in the US this month have raised fears about the health of the financial system.

The collapses follow a sharp rise in global borrowing costs, led by the US, which has shocked the world economy and raised worries about a painful downturn known as a recession.

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At the centre of the crisis is the US central bank.

Since last year, authorities at the Federal Reserve have been leading the charge to raise interest rates, as they wrestle to rein in price increases driving up the cost of living.

With risks to the economy rising, can that campaign continue?

Just two weeks ago, Chairman Jerome Powell warned the bank might need to raise interest rates further and faster than expected, citing concerns that progress on stabilising prices was stalling.

The rate at which prices rise was 6% in the 12 months to February – far higher than the 2% rate considered healthy.

But the recent banking turmoil has many investors betting the Fed will be especially keen to avoid startling financial markets with a big move.

Many analysts expect officials to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points – or perhaps hold off on an increase entirely.

Whatever the decision, Mr Powell is squarely in the hot seat – with little chance of satisfying his many critics.

“This is probably the toughest decision the Fed has had to make in a while,” says Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics, who is expecting a 0.25 percentage point increase.

He says Mr Powell will “have to play the two-handed economist perfectly”, convincing investors that the central bank can still raise rates to fight inflation on the one hand, while using other tools to combat stress in the financial system.

“The biggest challenge is going to be communication and the Fed doesn’t have a really good track record.”

Mr Powell, a lawyer who was appointed to lead the Fed by former President Donald Trump, already had work to do to restore credibility, after he infamously described the price rises that started to hit America in 2021 as “transitory”.

The bank failures have added to the scrutiny, putting into focus costs from the rapid rate rise campaign, while raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve had been too lax in its oversight.

Elizabeth Warren

Reuters

Senator Elizabeth Warren, a progressive Democrat who has long faulted Mr Powell’s response to inflation, has accused him of presiding over an “astonishing list of failures”, including faulty supervision.

She said this week she did not think he should remain in his post.

And though the reasoning is different, criticism of Mr Powell has also grown louder on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley.

“The Fed should have reacted to inflation six months earlier, and then raise rates more gradually. Instead they slammed on the brakes and now we have a car crash,” venture capitalist David Sacks wrote on Twitter in the wake of the bank failures.

With outcry widening, the White House this week issued a statement affirming US President Joe Biden’s “confidence” in Mr Powell.

Mr Sweet said such an unusual step is a sign in part of a more toxic turn in politics.

“I think on both sides, they’re much more quick to criticise and point the finger,” Mr Sweet said.

Over the past year, the Fed has raised its key rate – what it charges banks to borrow – from near zero to more than 4.5% – the highest level since 2007.

But strong hiring has helped the economy hold up better than many expected, despite a sharp slowdown in the housing market and struggles in the tech sector, where low borrowing costs had helped fuel growth.

Still, the recent banking panic is likely to push the US economy into recession sooner than expected – and there is little doubt that pressure on Mr Powell has increased, Mr Sweet said.

“Anytime you get any stress in the banking system all eyes turn to the Federal Reserve.”

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