New Zealand May Open Rate-Hike Door Amid Signs Economy Is Overheating - Bloomberg | Canada News Media
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New Zealand May Open Rate-Hike Door Amid Signs Economy Is Overheating – Bloomberg

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New Zealand’s central bank may signal it’s willing to begin tightening monetary policy later this year as a slew of strong data suggest the economy is overheating.

The Reserve Bank will leave the official cash rate at 0.25% at its review Wednesday in Wellington, according to all 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. But economists at the country’s four largest banks now predict the RBNZ will start raising rates in November, and they expect it to tacitly acknowledge that possibility in its statement.

“The RBNZ can tick all its boxes — inflation risks have flipped firmly towards it being too high for too long, and we think the labor market is at least at, possibly past full employment,” said Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland. “We don’t need any more demand in this economy right now. I think it is overheating.”

Investors ramped up rate-hike bets last week after a survey of business opinion showed increasingly confident firms are passing on higher costs by raising prices. At the same time, considerable risks remain. New Zealand’s border is still largely closed to the outside world and a slow vaccination roll-out has left it vulnerable should Covid-19 breach its defenses.

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The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Adrian Orr, will publish its decision at 2 p.m. in Wellington tomorrow. It is an interim review, not a quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, so no new forecasts will be published and Orr will not hold a press conference. In May, the central bank projected it would start raising rates in the second half of 2022.

Stimulus Withdrawal

New Zealand’s success in eliminating the coronavirus from the community has given its economic recovery a head-start, putting the RBNZ at the forefront of stimulus withdrawal in the wake of the pandemic.

It has already dialed down its quantitative easing bond buying to a current rate of just NZ$200 million ($140 million) a week, and several economists say purchases could end within months.

While some other central banks are also signaling an end to ultra-loose policies by tapering bond purchases, in Asia only the Bank of Korea has said that rate normalization is in the pipeline this year. By contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia last week said it doesn’t expect to increase borrowing costs until 2024.

The economy is running hot amid a shortage of goods and labor and surging demand. Gross domestic product jumped 1.6% in the first quarter from the fourth, three times the pace forecast by economists, while the housing market continues to boom despite government efforts to curb property investment.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in the first quarter, and economists expect data due July 16 to show the inflation rate almost doubled to 2.7% in the second quarter, nearing the top of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range.

The central bank will want to be sure that faster inflation is becoming entrenched, and may be wary of putting upward pressure on New Zealand’s exchange rate by tightening policy much sooner than its peers, said John Carran, an economist at Jarden Group in Auckland.

“They need to take a bit more time to see how long these labor market pressures and other cost pressures develop and whether they are going to flow through into significantly higher wages,” said Carran. “I don’t think there is enough evidence to say the spike in inflation will persist, and to justify the RBNZ raising rates.”

But Craig Ebert, senior economist at the Bank of New Zealand in Wellington, said inflation will continue to track higher over the course of the year and the jobless rate will fall further. BNZ forecasts inflation reaching 3.3% in the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% by mid-2022.

“It’s the outlook for inflation, and the labor market, that will end up forcing the bank’s hand on the OCR,” said Ebert. “While risks of economic disappointment lurk,” there are now “palpable threats imposed by an overheating local economy,” he said.

— With assistance by Garfield Clinton Reynolds

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    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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