Health
Newfoundland and Labrador releases coronavirus projections – The Globe and Mail
Newfoundland and Labrador Health Minister John Haggie in Winnipeg on June 28, 2018.
John Woods/The Canadian Press
Models projecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Newfoundland and Labrador suggest cases could peak around mid-November and ICU bed capacity could be exceeded by mid-July if current preventive measures remain in place.
That scenario, run by the Canadian Institute for Health Information, looked at the possibility that 32 per cent of the population would be infected with COVID-19 over two years.
Health Minister John Haggie, Premier Dwight Ball and Janice Fitzgerald, the province’s chief medical officer of health, addressed the province by video on Wednesday along with Dr. Proton Rahman, a clinical scientist and professor of medicine at Memorial University of Newfoundland.
The presentations showed that, even with a rapid rise in cases over the last month due to a cluster that spread from a funeral home, the curve of the outbreak has been flattening over the last week.
It’s now similar to other provinces such as British Columbia, suggesting public health measures like contact tracing and non-essential service shutdowns have been effective so far.
The funeral home cluster, which represents 75 per cent of the province’s known cases, created a challenge for modelling, officials said.
Two people have died from COVID-19 in Newfoundland and Labrador, making the sample too small to project for a possible number of deaths.
In the short term, the Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Health Information projects that under current measures, a “best case” scenario would see approximately 25 hospitalizations due to the illness by April 30.
In a “worst case” scenario, without public health measures, approximately 200 people would be hospitalized by April 30. Both scenarios are manageable with the province’s current bed capacity, the projections note.
Projections related to ICU beds, which looked at 57 of 98 ICU beds as available, predicted that a best-case scenario would see about 10 patients occupying intensive care beds by April 30.
In a worst-case scenario, the province would exceed its ICU capacity by the same date, with approximately 65 people in ICU beds with COVID-19.
Assuming 32 per cent of the population contracts the illness, the Canadian Institute for Health Information predicts that Newfoundland and Labrador will need more ICU beds by July.
However, the same model predicted the province would stay within its acute care and ventilator capacity over the next year.
Another scenario, in which 51 per cent of the population contracts COVID-19, cases would peak in September, ventilator supply would be exceeded by mid-July and ICU capacity would be exceeded in mid-June. Acute care needs would exceed capacity in July in that scenario.
Newfoundland and Labrador has the second-highest number of infections per capita across Canadian provinces and territories, after Quebec, according to the presentation that used numbers from Tuesday.
Among the 17 people hospitalized, six have gone into the ICU.
The province reported four new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, bringing the provincial total to 232.
The Newfoundland and Labrador government shared models forecasting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Wednesday. If one-third of the population were infected over two years, one scenario predicted cases could peak in November and ICU bed capacity could be exceeded in July. The Canadian Press
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Alberta Health Services (AHS) has confirmed a case of measles in Edmonton, and is advising the public that the individual was out in public while infectious.
Measles is an extremely contagious disease that is spread easily through the air, and can only be prevented through immunization.
AHS says individuals who were in the following locations during the specified dates and times, may have been exposed to measles.
- April 16
- Edmonton International Airport, international arrivals and baggage claim area — between 3:20 p.m. and 6 p.m.
- April 20
- Stollery Children’s Hospital Emergency Department — between 5 a.m. to 3 p.m.
- April 22
- 66th Medical Clinic (13635 66 St NW Edmonton) — between 12:15 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
- Pharmacy 66 (13637 66 St NW Edmonton) — between 12:15 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
- April 23
- Stollery Children’s Hospital Emergency Department — between 4:40 a.m. to 9:33 a.m.
AHS says anyone who attended those locations during those times is at risk of developing measles if they’ve not had two documented doses of measles-containing vaccine.
Those who have not had two doses, who are pregnant, under one year of age, or have a weakened immune system are at greatest risk of getting measles and should contact Health Link at 1-877-720-0707.
Symptoms
Symptoms of measles include a fever of 38.3° C or higher, cough, runny nose, and/or red eyes, a red blotchy rash that appears three to seven days after fever starts, beginning behind the ears and on the face and spreading down the body and then to the arms and legs.
If you have any of these symptoms stay home and call Health Link.
In Alberta, measles vaccine is offered, free of charge, through Alberta’s publicly funded immunization program. Children in Alberta typically receive their first dose of measles vaccine at 12 months of age, and their second dose at 18 months of age.
Health
U.S. tightens rules for dairy cows a day after bird flu virus fragments found in pasteurized milk samples – Toronto Star
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Infected cows were already prohibited from being transported out of state, but that was based on the physical characteristics of the milk, which looks curdled when a cow is infected, or a cow has decreased lactation or low appetite, both symptoms of infection.
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