Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases and the end of the Brexit transition period may hold back NI’s economic recovery, according to forecasts by Danske Bank.
It predicts the NI economy will contract by about 11% in 2020 and grow by about 7% in 2021.
It says accommodation and food services will be the hardest hit sector in 2020 with output estimated to fall by 37%.
Activity in the arts and entertainment sector is expected to fall 26% in 2020.
Despite unprecedented levels of government support to try to minimise redundancies, Danske Bank still expects significant job losses in some sectors.
For example, it is forecasting employment levels in accommodation and food services will fall by 8% and a fall of almost 6% in arts, entertainment and recreation.
While this report says the coronavirus pandemic remains the most significant risk facing the economy, it also raises concerns about the ongoing Brexit negotiations.
This forecast says if no trade deal is reached, the pace of economic recovery in both Northern Ireland and the UK would be slower.
Danske Bank Chief Economist Conor Lambe said: “The economic recovery now appears to be under way in Northern Ireland and we expect the third quarter output data to show a reasonably strong increase in activity.
“But most of the initial gains from re-opening the economy after lockdown are now behind us, and with recent rises in the number of Covid-19 cases and the need for tougher restrictions to be imposed, we expect economic growth rates to begin to moderate in the final quarter of the year.”
Mr Lambe added that “the end of the Brexit transition period is also expected to impact the pace of the economic recovery”.
“We continue to believe that the UK and the EU will agree and implement the terms of a new free trade deal from January 2021, at which point the Northern Ireland Protocol will also take effect,” he said.
“However, some trade frictions are still likely to be introduced when the transition period ends.
“It is clear that there are a number of headwinds facing the local economy and despite our relatively strong annual growth forecast for next year, economic output is still expected to be around 3 – 4% below its pre-coronavirus level in the final quarter of 2021.”
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
