No Brexit trade deal could cost reeling UK economy $25 billion next year - CNN | Canada News Media
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No Brexit trade deal could cost reeling UK economy $25 billion next year – CNN

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The British economy has been pummeled by the pandemic. Now, after a meeting of EU leaders decided that not enough progress has been made in talks on a new trade deal with the United Kingdom, Johnson faces a difficult choice: Does he keep discussions going past a self-imposed deadline, or walk away?
Both roads lead to a tough 2021 for Britain as the country battles the twin shocks of coronavirus and Brexit. But failing to secure an agreement with the United Kingdom’s biggest export market would amplify the pain.
Walking away empty handed would create disruptions to trade when the transition period ends later this year, shaving more than $25 billion off the UK economy in 2021 compared to a scenario where a limited free trade deal is agreed, according to a CNN Business analysis based on forecasts from Citi and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. That would put the country even further behind on its efforts to recover from the historic shock triggered by the pandemic.
“The combination of Covid-19 and the exit from the EU single market makes the UK outlook exceptionally uncertain,” Laurence Boone, chief economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said in a report this week. “Actions taken to address the pandemic and decisions made on future trading relationships will have a lasting impact on the United Kingdom’s economic trajectory for years to come.”

Little progress on deal

The clock is ticking for the United Kingdom and the European Union to come to terms, with Britain set to lose its favorable trading status with the bloc at the end of December.
Meetings this week concluded without any major breakthroughs. Fishing rights and the framework for resolving future disputes remain key sticking points, according to Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.
“We don’t think the deal will flounder on fish, but we do think the technical and political challenges it presents will be more difficult to overcome than many believe,” Rahman said Thursday.
Johnson had said that terms of the future trading arrangement needed to be hammered out by mid-October to give businesses enough time to plan for the outcome. That deadline has now come and gone.
On Thursday, the European Union said it was willing to continue discussions in the coming weeks. But the United Kingdom’s chief negotiator, David Frost, said on Twitter that the conclusions of the EU Council left him “disappointed” and that Johnson would set out the UK position on Friday.
Rahman believes it’s still in Johnson’s best political interest to strike a deal, given the criticism of his management the Covid-19 crisis.
“As Johnson’s government tears itself apart on coronavirus, the need for a political win, which only a deal can be, is greater than ever,” he said.
The United Kingdom has in recent days opted for a regional approach as its coronavirus cases spike, reimposing strict rules in Liverpool and barring people from different households from meeting indoors in London starting Saturday. That’s led to criticism from both those worried about the impact on the economy, and those who believe dramatic national measures are necessary to keep the situation under control.

Businesses sound alarm

The confusion over where Brexit goes next couldn’t come at a worse time for the United Kingdom.
Citi and IFS estimate that the UK economy will contract by 9.4% this year. That would be the largest drop since 1921, according to data from the Bank of England. The additional restrictions coming into effect could make matters worse.
A disorderly break with the European Union on top of the coronavirus recession would only prolong the recovery.
With a limited trade agreement, the UK economy is due to bounce back with growth of 4.6% in 2021 before losing some momentum between 2022 and 2024, according to IFS and Citi projections. Failing to reach a trade deal with Europe would shave as much as one percentage point off that level of growth. The difference comes out to nearly £20 billion, or over $25 billion.
According to economists at Citi and IFS, even the best-case scenario of a limited trade agreement would leave the UK economy 2.1% smaller in 2021 than it would have been if the transition period was extended indefinitely.
With significant uncertainty clouding the outlook, businesses are expressing anxiety about the next few months.
In a survey of more than 950 executives released Friday by the Institute of Directors, roughly a quarter of respondents said they aren’t sure they’ll be prepared for the end of the transition period.
“The prospect of no deal would be daunting enough, let alone dealing with it in the middle of a global pandemic,” IoD senior policy adviser Allie Renison said. “These disruptions won’t cancel each other out. If anything they would compound the pain for British businesses.”

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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