Newly discovered asteroid 2023 DW has a one in 1,584 chance of hitting Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046, according to the ESA.
The chances have plummeted that a newly-discovered asteroid with the potential to wipe out a city will hit Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046, the European Space Agency said on Tuesday.
The asteroid, which is named 2023 DW and is estimated to be around the size of a 50-meter Olympic swimming pool, was first spotted by a small Chilean observatory on February 26.
It swiftly shot to the top of NASA and ESA lists of asteroids that pose a danger to Earth, leading to a raft of alarming news headlines, some warning lovers to cancel their Valentine’s plans on February 14, 2046.
Late last month the asteroid was given a one in 847 chance of hitting Earth—but the odds rose to one in 432 on Sunday, according to the ESA’s risk list. NASA has had similar but not identical estimations.
However Richard Moissl, the head of the ESA’s planetary defense office, told AFP on Tuesday that overnight the probability fell to one in 1,584.
“It will go down now with every observation until it reaches zero in a couple of days at the latest,” he said.
“No one needs to be worried about this guy.”
NASA’s planetary defense officer Lindley Johnson agreed, telling AFP that “at this point, no one should be concerned at all”.
He said it was normal for the impact odds of newly discovered asteroids to briefly rise before rapidly falling.
This is because new observations shrink the “uncertainty region” where the asteroid will travel to on its closest point to Earth, he said.
While the Earth is still inside that uncertainty region, the odds temporarily increase—until further observations exclude Earth and the probability drops down to zero, as is expected to happen with 2023 DW.
What if it does hit Earth?
But what would happen in the increasingly unlikely event that the asteroid does strike Earth?
Davide Farnocchia, a scientist at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, said a good comparison was the Tunguska event, in which a similarly-sized asteroid is believed to have exploded in the atmosphere above a sparsely populated area in Siberia in 1908.
“The resulting explosion flattened trees over an area of about 2,000 square kilometers,” Farnocchia said. London covers an area of around 1,600 square kilometers.
An image of Dimorphos from NASA’s DART spacecraft taken moments before it slammed into the asteroid last year.
Moissl said that an asteroid the size of 2023 DW would create “regionalised destruction” and not have a major effect on the rest of the world.
The asteroid, which is orbiting the Sun, came around nine million kilometers from Earth during its most recent closest approach on February 18—a week before it was discovered.
If it was to strike Earth in 2046, it would be speeding along at around 15 kilometers (nine miles) a second, according to estimations.
There would be a roughly 70 percent chance it lands in the Pacific Ocean, but the potential strike zone would also include the United States, Australia or Southeast Asia, Moissl said.
Deflection plan
Even if the asteroid is heading our way, the experts emphasized that the world is no longer defenseless against such a threat.
Last year, NASA’s DART spacecraft deliberately slammed into the pyramid-sized asteroid Dimorphos, significantly knocking it off course in the first such test of our planetary defenses.
Farnocchia said the “DART mission gives us confidence that such a mission would be successful” against 2023 DW, if required.
With 23 years to prepare, there is “ample time” for such a mission to be planned, Moissl said.
The ESA’s Hera mission, scheduled to launch next year to inspect the damage DART had on Dimorphos, could even be repurposed for reconnaissance if necessary, he added.
Such plans would not be considered until the probability of an impact passes one in 100, when it would get the attention of UN-endorsed bodies like the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), Moissl said.
The aim of SMPAG is to “have everyone on the same page and avoid what happened in the movie ‘Don’t Look Up’,” in which “stupid stuff” happened because nations did not coordinate with each other, Moissl added.
However such defense mechanisms look unlikely to be required for 2023 DW.
“Everyone should relax, ignore the sensationalist headlines and stories, and watch how this situation plays out,” NASA’s Johnson said, adding that any threat was likely to “evaporate” soon.
“Nevertheless, the planetary defense community will keep looking up!”
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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
