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No One Predicted 2020. But How About 2021? – Bloomberg

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Once again, I offer my predictions for the year to come. But first I will perform the ritual that every prognosticator should: reviewing how I did at predicting the year now ending. So before I get to my predictions for 2021, let’s see how I did in 2020. (Scroll down if you just want to see what I think about the coming year.)

  1. I predicted that most of the Democratic presidential candidates would condemn the Secure Act’s limits on non-spouses who inherit retirement accounts. Evaluation: False. The unfortunate limits are still there – why not treat everyone who inherits a retirement account the same? – but they weren’t an issue during the election.    
  2. I predicted that the number of surveillance cameras in the world would swiftly surpass one billion. Evaluation: Probably true. Nobody knows the number – recent estimates put it at close to 800 million – but the popularity of private surveillance devices for home and business needs to be factored in.
  3. I predicted that due to insufficient appropriations, NASA would push back its 2024 target for returning human beings to the Moon. Evaluation: Partly true, partly false. The appropriation is much smaller than needed, but for now NASA is sticking to the 2024 target.  
  4. I predicted that the merger between T-Mobile and Sprint would survive judicial scrutiny. Evaluation: True.
  5. I predicted that the New England Patriots would win Super Bowl LIV last February. Evaluation: False. I hereby declare an end to my tradition of picking the now-woeful Patriots every year.
  6. I predicted that the rate at which Arctic ice is melting would continue to increase, and that climate activists would continue to argue against technological mitigation. Evaluation: Alas, both true.  
  7. I predicted a rapprochement between the U.S. and Belarus dictator Alyeksandr Lukashenko. Evaluation: A brief glimmer of promise, but now looks as if the better term is false.
  8. I predicted that the highest grossing film of the year would be “Wonder Woman 1984.” Evaluation: Although the film is doing fairly well, all things considered, this prediction will turn out to be extremely false – but, come on, did you predict a global pandemic?
  9. I predicted that a near-ban on vaping products would pass Congress and be signed into law. Evaluation: Mostly true. The 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act (you know, the one with Covid-19 relief) redefines nearly all vaping products as cigarette products, subjecting them to lots of new regulation.
  10. I predicted that Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, facing allegations of rape by two Black women, would decline to run for governor. Evaluation: Extremely false. The Washington Post reports that the scandals “have largely faded” – forgetting, perhaps, that it is usually up to the news media to decide which ones stay alive.
  11. I predicted that the U.S. stock market would hit several new highs in the first half of the year, then fall in the run-up to the presidential election, before ending the year on a sharp upswing. Evaluation: Largely true, although the driver was not politics but news about the pandemic.  
  12. I predicted that the Houston Astros would defeat the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. Evaluation: About as false as it could be.
  13. I predicted that journalists wouldn’t apologize for their craven stupidity in asking whether cadets who circled thumbs and forefingers during the Army-Navy game were sharing white power signs. (As the Anti-Defamation League among others has pointed out, the OK symbol is almost always just an OK symbol.) Evaluation: True.
  14. I predicted that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would maintain its position that trace amounts of nitrosamines in some prescription medications were safe. Evaluation: Somewhat false. The FDA has joined other countries in setting daily limits for nitorsamines and has warned patients and doctors to be cautious.
  15. Finally, to recapitulate my tongue-in-cheek prediction on the presidential contest, I predicted that the Democrats would flip Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but the Republicans would flip New Hampshire, leading to a tie in the Electoral College and litigation from President Trump. Evaluation: On the litigation part, I was right. I was also right in picking four states the Democrats would flip. I was wrong about the Electoral College tie, but that part was obviously farce.

Now we come to my predictions for 2021. Do bear in mind that not all are seriously meant:

  1. In January, President Donald Trump will finally invite President-elect Joe Biden to the White House. Trump will even attend the inaugural, albeit with poor grace. After leaving office, Trump will become a resident of Florida. He will place his New York triplex on the market, but it will take over a year, and several price cuts, before it sells.
  2. In his inaugural address, President Joe Biden will be as charitable toward Trump as Trump was toward his predecessor, President Barack Obama. (Trump, as you may recall, was able to bestir himself to thank Obama for “gracious aid throughout this transition” – that is, for helping Trump – and that was it.)
  3. Alas, within the first six months of Biden’s administration, much of the progressive left will turn on him, labeling him too cautious and forgetting that it’s a big and complex country which will be holding a congressional election in 2022. (Some predictions are easy.)
  4. Other countries will begin to follow the lead of Japan, which is making ambitious plans to use GPS to track every visitor who enters the country
  5. The rich world’s V-shaped recovery will strengthen but poorer nations will struggle with the pandemic’s second wave, leading to more accusations that wealthy nations are most interested in vaccinating their own people.
  6. In other Covid-19 news, at least three governors, having grown enamored of ruling by decree, will extend their states’ declared emergencies through the end of 2021.
  7. Due to pandemic restrictions, Super Bowl LVI in Tampa Bay will be played before no more than 15,000 fans in a stadium that can seat more than four times that number. The Green Pay Packers will win.
  8. A significant number of top jobs in the financial sector will move from New York to Connecticut, now that Darien seems again to make “loads of sense.”
  9. In climate news, additional measurements will tend to confirm recent speculation that the Antarctic ice sheet is much less stable than thought
  10. As the news media struggle to figure out how closely to scrutinize the new administration, “bothsidesing” will become a popular verb – and your humble Grammar Curmudgeon promises to weigh in.
  11. Despite the Covid-19 vaccine, audiences will remain leery of movie theaters, and at least one major chain will declare bankruptcy. Nevertheless, many more people than in 2020 will go to the movies – admit it, popcorn is never quite the same at home – and the top grossing film of 2021 will be “Fast and Furious 9,” but nostalgia-seeking baby boomers will boost “Top Gun: Maverick” into the top three. The darling of the critics will be “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.”
  12. While we’re on the subject, no later than summer of 2021, the board of governors of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, having read the handwriting on the wall, will vote to make permanent its “temporary” rule permitting Academy Award consideration for certain films that skip theatrical release and go straight to video.
  13. In other pop culture news, to the dismay of the fan base, Grogu, better known as Baby Yoda, will not show up until midway through season 3 of “The Mandalorian.” Bonus prediction: We’ll see Kylo Ren’s turn to the dark side.
  14. Although the antitrust suit against Facebook will generate tens of millions of dollars for law firms, it will become increasingly clear that the case is thin.
  15. The World Series will feature surprise teams from both leagues, with the Atlanta Braves defeating the Oakland Athletics.
  16. College administrators, having had a sudden transplant of backbone, will become resolute in standing up for faculty members under attack for taking unpopular positions. (Well, yes, one can always dream …)

That’s what I think will happen in 2021. Whether I’m right or wrong, I wish for all my readers a year full of joy and delight and thoughtfulness and companionship and love.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Stephen L. Carter at scarter01@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Sarah Green Carmichael at sgreencarmic@bloomberg.net

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    Canadian politicians have been scared straight by Donald Trump’s raging exit. Will it last? – Toronto Star

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    Racism is definitely not a good trait for a politician. Nor is an inability to read the room.

    Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has been accused of both after his drive-by smear of new federal Transport Minister Omar Alghabra.

    The most harsh condemnation came from Justin Trudeau on Friday, pronouncing himself incredulous that a party leader would wade into “insinuations” about Alghabra, who is a Muslim, after what everyone witnessed in Washington last week.

    Blanchet, the prime minister said, was “playing dangerous games around intolerance and hate” when purporting to be asking mere questions about Alghabra and Islamic political activism.

    “That kind of political pandering to the worst elements and to fears and anxieties has no place in Canada and all of us need to stand up strongly to push up against that, anywhere it happens in this country.”

    Trudeau’s link to events in Washington reflects a larger phenomenon rattling through Canadian politics since the Jan. 6 siege of Capitol Hill.

    How long it lasts is anyone’s guess, but that mob scene south of the border has prompted some soul-searching among political types in Canada too.

    Many of the ingredients of Donald Trump’s toxic political brand are now being vigorously disowned in Canada — almost at the same speed with which many Republicans are turning their back on the president in the U.S.

    Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole has revived a policy of refusal to deal with the Rebel News outlet, which traffics in the same kind of far-right disinformation that feeds Trump’s angry base in the United States. The reassertion of this rule came after a dust-up over O’Toole’s office emailing answers to Rebel questions, which were touted as an exclusive interview.

    Two prominent Calgary women, meanwhile, both from the right of the political spectrum, have publicly denounced Twitter this week — slightly after Trump was banned from the medium, mind you, but in protest against the mob mentality it helps create.

    Danielle Smith, the former leader of Alberta’s Wild Rose party, declared she was walking away from her radio-host job and Twitter, saying: “I’ve had enough of the mob.”

    Meanwhile, Calgary MP Michelle Rempel Garner penned her own takedown of Twitter, describing it as the “biggest culprit of weaponized misinformation, hate, and the death of rational argument.” Rempel’s piece appeared in an online publication called The Line.

    To her credit, Rempel acknowledged that she had fallen into the “trap” of Twitter, particularly its ability to reward politicians for generating instant emotion and black-and-white opinions. “It’s a threat because it eliminates nuance, and penalizes politicians who build relationships across the aisle,” she wrote.

    Two other MPs, in that exact cross-partisan spirit, also wrote bluntly this week about how the poisonous politics around the Capitol Hill assault required active resistance in Canada. Liberal MP Anthony Housefather and Conservative MP Scott Aitchison collaborated on a National Post article headlined: “As Canadian MPs, we know our opponents are not our enemies. Let’s not become the U.S.”

    Now, it should be pointed out that a week is a long time in politics and the road to partisan hell is paved with good intentions to be collegial. All of these resolutions to absorb the lessons of Jan. 6 in the U.S. capital could vanish like other New Year’s resolutions — most likely within the first five minutes of Question Period when Parliament resumes later this month.

    In the case of the Bloc Québécois leader, Trudeau is correct: it does not seem that Blanchet gave much thought to how anti-Muslim remarks would be seen in the wake of the Capitol Hill rampage.

    Islamophobia is a dark current running through a lot of the alt-right and white supremacist sentiment on display in Washington that day and Trump has tapped that current when expedient too.

    Of all the times to “raise questions” about Alghabra’s Muslim background, the immediate days after the Capitol Hill assault would not be one of them.

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    If politicians are serious about holding back the tides of political hate that fuelled the pillage in Washington, they have to take ownership not just of their own words, but what they’re whipping up among their supporters.

    Rempel’s born-again embrace of collegiality is worth watching on that point. Several years ago, I actually asked her whether she was uncomfortable with what her social-media fans were saying about Ahmed Hussen, when he was federal immigration minister and she was the critic. She answered that bad things were said about her too on social media.

    Right now, it looks like some Canadian politicians have been scared straight by Trump’s fiery exit in the U.S. But it’s not enough to denounce their rivals or Twitter or even Trump — the test of any new resolve will be in whether they’re willing to call out toxic politics when it happens in their own ranks.

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    Week In Politics: Capitol Riot, Trump's 2nd Impeachment And Inauguration – NPR

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    NPR’s Mary Louise Kelly talks with Hoover Institution fellow Lanhee Chen and Errin Haines of The 19th about the Capitol riot, President Trump’s second impeachment and the incoming administration.



    MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

    When a week in politics feels like a month, we know it’s a good time to pause and ask what just happened. Well, for the first time in U.S. history, a president was impeached for a second time. Also, we’ve learned more about how violent the insurrection at the Capitol was intended to be. The inauguration and more security threats loom. And the Biden-Harris administration is pushing forward with its plans for the next four years.

    Well, joining me now, Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution fellow and policy director for the Romney presidential campaign. Welcome to you.

    LANHEE CHEN: Thank you.

    KELLY: And Errin Haines, editor-at-large of the news site, The 19th. Welcome to you.

    ERRIN HAINES: Thank you. Thanks so much for having me.

    KELLY: We are going to kick off with the big-banner, historic news – an impeachment, a second impeachment, which this time included 10 Republican votes in the House. Congressman Kevin McCarthy was not one of them. He did not vote against the president, but he did say this.

    (SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

    KEVIN MCCARTHY: That doesn’t mean the president is free from fault. The president bears responsibility for Wednesday’s attack on Congress by mob rioters. He should have immediately denounced the mob when he saw what was unfolding.

    KELLY: Lanhee, I’m going to let you take this one on first. And I should note for people listening that you are informally advising some Republican members. Speak to how fractured the Republican Party is after all of this and especially this week.

    CHEN: Well, I think there are significant divisions, and, you know, it goes a lot deeper than just how one feels about Donald Trump. I think there are questions about the future arc of where the party goes in terms of policy. I think there are great disagreements about how the Republican leadership ought to deal with the misinformation, frankly, that’s been spread to a lot of voters, for example, about claims of election fraud recently.

    And I think a lot of these issues are going to get sorted out over the next few years. I think some of it’s going to come in the form of elections, primary elections, in the coming years. But also, I think there has to be a very direct conversation between Republicans about what the party stands for – exactly what the agenda is and should be going forward. And I think all those questions will demonstrate the degree to which there is division but also the degree to which Republicans can come together in the coming weeks and months.

    KELLY: Well, and speaking of the coming weeks, I suppose we have a Senate trial to get through in those coming weeks. Errin Haines, let me bring you in. What struck you this week watching the second impeachment of Donald Trump?

    HAINES: Well, certainly, what was different this year from where we were really just about a year ago is that you did have those 10 Republicans joining Democrats, including the highest-ranking woman in the Republican Party, Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

    You know, it – hearing, you know, the case for or against impeachment, you know, on both sides was really striking. And hearing from Republicans, some of whom, you know, certainly were wanting accountability in terms of the insurrectionists but not wanting to go so far as to hold the president accountable despite the fact that he was at the Stop The Steal Rally just ahead of the storming of the Capitol and the weeks and weeks that he, you know, has perpetuated the false claims of a rigged election – not really wanting to tether him directly to the events of January 6 was really remarkable. And so I think that maybe foreshadows, you know, how a final vote may go once this goes over to the Senate along party lines and the justification for that.

    KELLY: Now, all of this – impeachment – is happening, of course, against the backdrop of a pandemic. We watch vaccines being slowly rolled out. And, of course, we’re bearing witness to the staggering economic impact of this pandemic, which Joe Biden referenced last night when he announced his new $1.9 trillion pandemic plan.

    (SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

    JOE BIDEN: And it’s not hard to see that we’re in the middle of a once-in-several-generations economic crisis with a once-in-several-generations public health crisis. A crisis of deep human suffering is in plain sight. And there’s no time to waste. We have to act, and we have to act now.

    KELLY: Errin, let me return to that number – $1.9 trillion. It feels crazy to ask is that enough (laughter), but would that be enough financial support for Americans to get through what the CDC is projecting will be the deadliest months of the pandemic, and they’re still ahead?

    HAINES: Well, we are in the worst of the throes of this pandemic. And, you know, this huge challenge needs a huge response. And that is what President-elect Biden is proposing in this $1.9 trillion plan, which is going to provide wide-ranging relief, the campaign says, to millions of workers, including the women who have been disproportionately economically impacted by a pandemic that is not interested in the peaceful transfer of power, did not stop, you know, amidst, you know, a racial reckoning and did not stop even, you know, in the midst of that insurrection, where we saw members, you know, coming down with the coronavirus during the insurrection at the Capitol. And so, you know, a lot of these – the pillars of that plan are going to center around issues that have affected women, from child care to school reopenings…

    KELLY: Yeah.

    HAINES: …To hunger to evictions.

    KELLY: Yeah. Lanhee, your thoughts on the Biden plan and, I suppose, whether Republican lawmakers will vote for it.

    CHEN: Well, I think there are elements in here that some Republicans have already expressed support for. For example, you had a few Republicans like Marco Rubio and Josh Hawley express support for expanded direct payments at the $2,000 level, which is essentially what this plus up in the Biden plan would do – increase the level of direct support to $2,000.

    I think that the question is going to be, of course, whether some of the other elements in this package that, quite frankly, probably don’t belong in a COVID relief package – whether things like, for example, a debate over the minimum wage – if that is going to turn off some Republicans. But in my view, it’s going to be very difficult for those Republicans who are already on the record supporting elements of this package – the enhanced unemployment insurance, the direct payments, you know, assistance for COVID-19 vaccine distribution…

    KELLY: Yeah.

    CHEN: …It will be a challenge for those Republicans to then turn around and oppose elements of this simply because Joe Biden is the one that’s put them on the table instead of a…

    KELLY: We just have a…

    CHEN: …Republican president.

    KELLY: Forgive me – we just have a minute or so left. But a quick parting thought from each of you as we look ahead to what promises to be another remarkable week in politics – an inauguration in what is basically a green zone. The Mall is closed, the outgoing president – President Trump – says he’s not going to be in attendance. What are you watching for next week, Lanhee?

    CHEN: Well, I’m hoping that the country can begin to come together, and we can begin to deal with some of these challenges. I do think it’s important that Congress takes up action on this stimulus package quickly in order to help move the country ahead and begin to heal some of these divisions that we’ve seen.

    KELLY: Errin Haines – last word to you.

    HAINES: Well, we are marking this inauguration in the wake of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday. And I leave you with this quote from King who said that in the days ahead, we must not consider it unpatriotic to raise certain basic questions about our national character.

    KELLY: Well, there are certainly a lot of questions about our nation and its character and what may come next. That is Errin Haines, editor-at-large of The 19th news site, and Lanhee Chen, Hoover Institution fellow and policy director for the Romney 2012 presidential campaign.

    Thank you to you both.

    CHEN: Thank you.

    HAINES: Thank you.

    (SOUNDBITE OF DATA’S “ELECTRIC FEVER”)

    Copyright © 2021 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

    NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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    National Rifle Association Files Bankruptcy Citing NY Politics – BNN

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    (Bloomberg) — The National Rifle Association of America filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Friday with plans to regroup in Texas, citing opposition in New York.

    The group intends to restructure and reincorporate, according to a statement on its website. The gun rights group said the filing will help it “exit what it believes is a corrupt political and regulatory environment in New York,” according to the statement.

    “The move will enable long-term, sustainable growth and ensure the NRA’s continued success as the nation’s leading advocate for constitutional freedom – free from the toxic political environment of New York,” the NRA said.

    Chapter 11 bankruptcy allows entities to continue operating while working on a plan to repay creditors. The petition listed assets and liabilities of as much as $500 million each.

    The organization has been beset by complaints over lavish spending and internal battles as it has battled a lawsuit by New York Attorney General Letitia James to dissolve the New York-based organization. She accused the NRA’s leader Wayne LaPierre and three others of fleecing it. Washington D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine filed a separate lawsuit against the NRA’s charitable arm, accusing it of misusing donor funds.

    The NRA counter-sued James in federal court, accusing her of violating its First Amendment rights. The organization also accused her of weaponizing her regulatory and legal power under the guise of protecting state residents.

    For years, the NRA has received millions of dollars annually from the NRA Foundation, whose donors get a tax deduction. But the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the grassroots fund-raisers that have been so successful.

    “The plan can be summed up quite simply: We are DUMPING New York, and we are pursuing plans to reincorporate the NRA in Texas,” LaPierre, the NRA’s chief executive, wrote in a letter on the organization’s website, citing “costly, distracting and unprincipled attacks” by politicians.

    Story Link: National Rifle Association Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

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