Politics

No One Predicted 2020. But How About 2021? – Bloomberg

Published

4 years ago

January 1, 2021

Who knows what tomorrow may bring?

Photographer: Sasha/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

Once again, I offer my predictions for the year to come. But first I will perform the ritual that every prognosticator should: reviewing how I did at predicting the year now ending. So before I get to my predictions for 2021, let’s see how I did in 2020. (Scroll down if you just want to see what I think about the coming year.)

I predicted that most of the Democratic presidential candidates would condemn the Secure Act’s limits on non-spouses who inherit retirement accounts. Evaluation: False. The unfortunate limits are still there – why not treat everyone who inherits a retirement account the same? – but they weren’t an issue during the election.
I predicted that the number of surveillance cameras in the world would swiftly surpass one billion. Evaluation: Probably true. Nobody knows the number – recent estimates put it at close to 800 million – but the popularity of private surveillance devices for home and business needs to be factored in.
I predicted that due to insufficient appropriations, NASA would push back its 2024 target for returning human beings to the Moon. Evaluation: Partly true, partly false. The appropriation is much smaller than needed, but for now NASA is sticking to the 2024 target.
I predicted that the merger between T-Mobile and Sprint would survive judicial scrutiny. Evaluation: True.
I predicted that the New England Patriots would win Super Bowl LIV last February. Evaluation: False. I hereby declare an end to my tradition of picking the now-woeful Patriots every year.
I predicted that the rate at which Arctic ice is melting would continue to increase, and that climate activists would continue to argue against technological mitigation. Evaluation: Alas, both true.
I predicted a rapprochement between the U.S. and Belarus dictator Alyeksandr Lukashenko. Evaluation: A brief glimmer of promise, but now looks as if the better term is false.
I predicted that the highest grossing film of the year would be “Wonder Woman 1984.” Evaluation: Although the film is doing fairly well, all things considered, this prediction will turn out to be extremely false – but, come on, did you predict a global pandemic?
I predicted that a near-ban on vaping products would pass Congress and be signed into law. Evaluation: Mostly true. The 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act (you know, the one with Covid-19 relief) redefines nearly all vaping products as cigarette products, subjecting them to lots of new regulation.
I predicted that Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, facing allegations of rape by two Black women, would decline to run for governor. Evaluation: Extremely false. The Washington Post reports that the scandals “have largely faded” – forgetting, perhaps, that it is usually up to the news media to decide which ones stay alive.
I predicted that the U.S. stock market would hit several new highs in the first half of the year, then fall in the run-up to the presidential election, before ending the year on a sharp upswing. Evaluation: Largely true, although the driver was not politics but news about the pandemic.
I predicted that the Houston Astros would defeat the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. Evaluation: About as false as it could be.
I predicted that journalists wouldn’t apologize for their craven stupidity in asking whether cadets who circled thumbs and forefingers during the Army-Navy game were sharing white power signs. (As the Anti-Defamation League among others has pointed out, the OK symbol is almost always just an OK symbol.) Evaluation: True.
I predicted that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would maintain its position that trace amounts of nitrosamines in some prescription medications were safe. Evaluation: Somewhat false. The FDA has joined other countries in setting daily limits for nitorsamines and has warned patients and doctors to be cautious.
Finally, to recapitulate my tongue-in-cheek prediction on the presidential contest, I predicted that the Democrats would flip Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but the Republicans would flip New Hampshire, leading to a tie in the Electoral College and litigation from President Trump. Evaluation: On the litigation part, I was right. I was also right in picking four states the Democrats would flip. I was wrong about the Electoral College tie, but that part was obviously farce.

Now we come to my predictions for 2021. Do bear in mind that not all are seriously meant:

In January, President Donald Trump will finally invite President-elect Joe Biden to the White House. Trump will even attend the inaugural, albeit with poor grace. After leaving office, Trump will become a resident of Florida. He will place his New York triplex on the market, but it will take over a year, and several price cuts, before it sells.
In his inaugural address, President Joe Biden will be as charitable toward Trump as Trump was toward his predecessor, President Barack Obama. (Trump, as you may recall, was able to bestir himself to thank Obama for “gracious aid throughout this transition” – that is, for helping Trump – and that was it.)
Alas, within the first six months of Biden’s administration, much of the progressive left will turn on him, labeling him too cautious and forgetting that it’s a big and complex country which will be holding a congressional election in 2022. (Some predictions are easy.)
Other countries will begin to follow the lead of Japan, which is making ambitious plans to use GPS to track every visitor who enters the country.
The rich world’s V-shaped recovery will strengthen but poorer nations will struggle with the pandemic’s second wave, leading to more accusations that wealthy nations are most interested in vaccinating their own people.
In other Covid-19 news, at least three governors, having grown enamored of ruling by decree, will extend their states’ declared emergencies through the end of 2021.
Due to pandemic restrictions, Super Bowl LVI in Tampa Bay will be played before no more than 15,000 fans in a stadium that can seat more than four times that number. The Green Pay Packers will win.
A significant number of top jobs in the financial sector will move from New York to Connecticut, now that Darien seems again to make “loads of sense.”
In climate news, additional measurements will tend to confirm recent speculation that the Antarctic ice sheet is much less stable than thought.
As the news media struggle to figure out how closely to scrutinize the new administration, “bothsidesing” will become a popular verb – and your humble Grammar Curmudgeon promises to weigh in.
Despite the Covid-19 vaccine, audiences will remain leery of movie theaters, and at least one major chain will declare bankruptcy. Nevertheless, many more people than in 2020 will go to the movies – admit it, popcorn is never quite the same at home – and the top grossing film of 2021 will be “Fast and Furious 9,” but nostalgia-seeking baby boomers will boost “Top Gun: Maverick” into the top three. The darling of the critics will be “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.”
While we’re on the subject, no later than summer of 2021, the board of governors of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, having read the handwriting on the wall, will vote to make permanent its “temporary” rule permitting Academy Award consideration for certain films that skip theatrical release and go straight to video.
In other pop culture news, to the dismay of the fan base, Grogu, better known as Baby Yoda, will not show up until midway through season 3 of “The Mandalorian.” Bonus prediction: We’ll see Kylo Ren’s turn to the dark side.
Although the antitrust suit against Facebook will generate tens of millions of dollars for law firms, it will become increasingly clear that the case is thin.
The World Series will feature surprise teams from both leagues, with the Atlanta Braves defeating the Oakland Athletics.
College administrators, having had a sudden transplant of backbone, will become resolute in standing up for faculty members under attack for taking unpopular positions. (Well, yes, one can always dream …)

That’s what I think will happen in 2021. Whether I’m right or wrong, I wish for all my readers a year full of joy and delight and thoughtfulness and companionship and love.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Stephen L. Carter at scarter01@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Sarah Green Carmichael at sgreencarmic@bloomberg.net

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Politics

Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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