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Norway May Deliver the Last Hike as Economy Ebbs

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(Bloomberg) — Norway’s central bank is poised to raise its key interest rate for the eighth time on Thursday in what could be the last increase in borrowing costs for the Nordic country teetering on the brink of a recession.

All economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Norges Bank to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the highest level since the financial crisis. Investors will likely zero in on the outlook to see if policy makers are backtracking from their planned increase “to around 3% in the course of winter,” projected in September.

Inflation not seen since 1980s and economic growth backed by increased demand for Norway’s oil and gas have exceeded the central bank’s forecasts over the past few months and led to faster tightening over the second half of this year. Now, policy makers may choose to cut short their planned tightening after a swathe of recent data suggests price growth has peaked and the outlook for the economy is worsening.

“I’m pretty certain that Norges Bank will deliver the expected 25 basis-point hike,” said Tina Winther Frandsen, chief economist with Jyske Bank A/S. “Therefore the rate path will be in focus. I expect it will be lowered — but only a bit — as to show a final rate hike to 3% in the first quarter.”

Norway’s expected move will come as part of a salvo of rate announcements this week, with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all set to raise their key rates by 50 basis points.

Norges Bank was among the first in the rich world to start raising rates in September 2021, but its gradual moves weren’t enough to contain surging prices and it had to abandon a plan of steady 25 basis-point rate increases in June, opting instead to deliver the steepest hikes in two decades.

Inflation slowed last month from a 35-year high, while housing prices in the country that has some of the most indebted households fell for a third straight month. The central bank’s key survey of business sentiment last week showed economic prospects are the weakest since 2009, with activity seen hit by “rapidly rising prices and costs, higher interest rates and a decline in new public sector orders.”

Several forecasters, including the central bank, expect a contraction next year in the mainland economy that excludes offshore businesses. In contrast, the employers lobby NHO on Tuesday forecast a 0.9% expansion for 2023, and the statistics office said last week it expects growth of 1.2%. In October, the mainland economy ground to a halt due to the seasonally volatile fishing business and weaker domestic trade.

A quarter point hike is on the cards now, according to Marius Gonsholt Hov, chief economist in Oslo for Svenska Handelsbanken AB. If policy makers publish a rate path that indicates 3% in the first quarter, they’re looking to signal that decision is dependent on data, he added. That puts the peak in the interval of 2.75% to 3%, versus previously 3% to 3.25%, he said.

“Norges Bank is likely to buy itself some time, and use the next few months to evaluate the further consequences of the tightening that has already been implemented while also retaining the option of tightening even further, if necessary,” he said. “Norges Bank is probably not ready to shout mission fully completed.”

–With assistance from Harumi Ichikura.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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