HALIFAX—Nova Scotia recorded its first three presumptive cases of COVID-19 on Sunday as it announced additional measures aimed at reducing the virus’s spread.
The news means every province in Canada now has patients with the virus. Dr. Robert Strang, Nova Scotia’s chief medical officer of health, said all three cases in his province were related to travel.
The patients include a 61-year-old woman from Kings County who had been travelling in Australia, a 50-year-old man from the Halifax area who had been travelling in the United States, and a man in his 30s from Halifax who had been travelling throughout Europe.
“None of the three cases are connected to each other,” Strang said on Sunday. “Extensive public health followup on all of the cases and their close contacts began last night as soon as we were notified of the cases.”
Strang told a news conference in Halifax that all three were self-isolating for 14 days at home.
Health officials said the woman had returned to Nova Scotia on March 8, while the man in his 30s returned March 10 and the 50-year-old man returned on Friday.
“We are the last province to identify cases and Atlantic Canada has not seen the level of spread we’re seeing in Ontario, Quebec and farther west,” said Strang. “We have a chance to get out front of this. It will be the combined impact of everybody adhering to the personal protective measures.”
Premier Stephen McNeil said in light of the new cases the province was taking further public health measures including immediately closing all long term care homes to visitors, and closing public schools for two weeks following the March break week, which begins Monday.
McNeil said regulated child care centres would also close Tuesday until April 3 and then would be reassessed, while casinos in Halifax and Sydney, N.S., would be closed as of Monday, and bar owners would no longer be allowed to operate video lottery terminals.
He said anyone who has travelled outside of Canada must now isolate themselves for 14 days upon their return, and screening procedures would be beefed up at the airports in Halifax and Sydney.
McNeil urged the public to take its lead from public health officials and asked organizations such as health and education unions to exercise responsibility in speaking out.
“Everyone competing for airtime is not helpful,” McNeil said. “We need to rely on public health. The decisions that we are making today are not based on something I dreamt up overnight … these (measures) are working with public health looking at best practices across communities.”
Also on Sunday, Nova Scotia’s Justice Department announced it had closed provincial jails to all visitors and volunteer organizations until further notice.
The province also recommended on Friday that organizations limit social gatherings to no more than 150 people.
Other provinces in Atlantic Canada also announced updates on the spread of COVID-19 on Sunday.
New Brunswick announced four additional presumptive cases, bringing the number of presumptive or positive cases in the province to six.
Dr. Jennifer Russell, he province’s chief medical officer of health, said the patients were from central New Brunswick and were mildly symptomatic, including a man between 50 and 60 years of age, a woman between 50 and 60 years of age, and two men between 20 and 30 years-old.
“All of these cases are connected to the first travel-related case,” said Russell. The province’s first confirmed case is a woman between the ages of 50 and 60 who had recently travelled from France.
Premier Blaine Higgs said the announcement was not unexpected and should be kept in perspective.
“We need to walk the line between preparing for this and overreacting,” said Higgs. “This has not spread through the community and that is significant in terms of risk to the public.”
New Brunswick had previously announced the closure of all public schools for two weeks beginning Monday to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.
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In Prince Edward Island, chief public health officer Dr. Heather Morrison announced the discontinuation of visits to the Island’s long-term care facilities after the province’s first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported Saturday — a woman in her 50s from the Queens County area who recently returned from travelling on a cruise ship.
Morrison also said all public schools would be closed until April 6 and all licensed child-care centres would be closed until further notice, effective immediately.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, health officials reported no new cases after confirming the province’s first presumptive case on Saturday.
Canada is expecting rise in Coronavirus deaths as job losses touch 1 million – International Business Times, Singapore Edition
Canada is expecting the increase in the number of coronavirus deaths from the current 435 to as high as 22,000 by the time the pandemic ends, health officials stated on Thursday, while the economy suffered a loss of one million jobs last month.
The officials outlined two scenarios which are most likely to take place, showing that between 11,000 and 22,000 people will die. The total number of positive coronavirus cases ranged from 934,000 to 1.9 million.
The officials said they expected between 500 and 700 people in Canada to die from the coronavirus by April 16. There have been 18,447 positive diagnoses so far. “Models are not a crystal ball,” Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told a briefing, saying it was too early to predict when the peak would be.
Canada may witness 22,000 deaths due to Coronavirus
Tam said it was crucial that people continued to obey instructions to stay at home as much as possible. “While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modeling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic,” she said. “We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent all the deaths that we can.”
Local governments across Canada have ordered non-essential businesses shut to combat the spread of the coronavirus, throwing millions out of work. Canada lost a record-breaking 1 million jobs in March while the unemployment rate soared to 7.8 percent, Statistics Canada said on Thursday, adding that the figures did not reflect the real toll. “Sticker shock for sure. This was about as bad as it could be,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.
More than five million Canadians had applied for all forms of federal emergency unemployment help since March 15, government data showed on Thursday, suggesting the real jobless rate is closer to 25 percent. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has so far announced a range of measures to help businesses that total around C$110 billion ($78.3 billion) in direct spending, or 5 percent of gross domestic product. Canada’s independent parliamentary budget officer predicted the budget deficit would balloon to C$184.2 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year from C$27.4 billion in the 2019‑2020 fiscal year.
(With agency inputs)
Controls can keep Canadian COVID-19 deaths under 22,000, health agency says – Agassiz-Harrison Observer
With strong control measures, the federal public health agency projects that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.
In a report released Thursday, (April 9) Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable, and it anticipates 500 to 700 deaths by the end of next week.
The agency released modelling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.
With poor containment measures, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency says.
It says the COVID-19 battle in Canada is still in its early stages but Canada’s numbers of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.
The agency the fight against the novel coronavirus will likely take many months and require cycles of tighter and weaker controls.
Later on Thursday (April 9), Chief medical officer Dr. TheresaTam said the “aspirational and our ambitious goal” was that just one per cent of the population is infected with COVID-19. With a population of 37.6 million, that would mean about 376,000 people would be infected.
Tam said there were 17,766 total confirmed cases of the virus and 461 deaths as of Thursday.
“I recognize there changes in our daily lives… are extremely difficult,” Tam said during a press conference in Ottawa.
She said the measures had “allowed the healthcare system to cope.”
She called on Canadians to make the upcoming long weekend a “staycation for the nation,” and stay home to celebrate with their household, or virtually with other friends and family.
Tam said health officials were evaluation the effect of measures like physical distancing and self-isolation daily.
“No one is gathering, really… we’re just trying to strengthen the message to Canadians that you should avoid all non-essential travel and stay at home as much as possible,” she said.
“We know that contact tracing is very key.”
The Canadian Press
Virus modelling estimates 11,000 to 22,000 Canadian deaths if physical distancing continues – The Globe and Mail
In the next year, between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadians could die as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, in what officials say are among the best-case scenarios for the disease.
The federal pandemic models released Thursday show that the country could see 22,580 to 31,850 cases by April 16, resulting in between 500 and 700 deaths.
Canada already has 19,291 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 435 confirmed deaths as a result of the disease.
Disease modelling is meant to show what might happen as the illness spreads across Canada, and does not predict what will happen.
In reading the models, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, has warned they are not a “crystal ball,” and instead serve to inform decision-makers about where they need to put resources, the health system’s capacity to respond to the virus, and what other measures need to be put in place to further limit transmission.
At a technical briefing, Dr. Tam and her deputy, Dr. Howard Njoo, outlined three possible scenarios facing Canada over the next year.
With strong epidemic control measures, such as a high degree of physical distancing and a high per cent of testing and contact tracing, the models show the epidemic could last until the fall and infect between one and 10 per cent of the population. Officials say that is Canada’s best-case scenario.
The potential 11,000 to 22,000 range in deaths is based on an overall infection rate of between 2.5 and 5 per cent.
“We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent every death that we can,” Dr. Tam said, adding that the models show Canada must continue with its physical-distancing measures already in place.
If no policy measures, such as physical distancing, were put in place, the models show 70 and 80 per cent of people could become infected and more than 300,000 people could die.
A middle-of-the-road scenario, where weaker controls would delay and reduce the peak, could lead to between 25 and 50 per cent of residents becoming infected with COVID-19 and more than 100,000 people could die. In that case, officials said the first wave of the pandemic could last until spring, 2021.
Dr. Tam said the models released by Ottawa show the first wave of the virus and warned that even when Canada is over the peak of the outbreak, some restrictions will need to stay in place to ensure the epidemic does not “reignite.”
She added that it is not clear yet when the pandemic will peak in different parts of the country, because no region is on the downward slope of its infection curve. Since at least half of all cases will come after the initial peak, the need for strong measures to reduce contact among individuals will need to continue for some time after it is clear that the first wave of the pandemic has crested, she said.
Nicholas Ogden, a senior scientist with the health agency, said that the fatality rate estimated for the Canadian figures – about 1.18 per cent of confirmed cases – was based on a range of factors and international data.
The federal government released its modelling after many provinces had done the same. On Wednesday, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador all released their models. British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick and Quebec have also already made their models public.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is benefitting from being hit by the global pandemic after many other countries. “For the time being,” he said, the health care system is able to cope with the spread of the virus but the country is “at a fork in the road.”
“We have the chance to determine what our country looks like in the weeks and months to come,” Mr. Trudeau said, meaning Canadians will have to continues to stay home and remain disciplined.
“This will be the new normal until a vaccine is developed,” Mr. Trudeau said.
Experts say making the models public is a way for officials to build trust with citizens who are being asked to take restrictive and economically painful measures to blunt the impact of the virus.
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