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Stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter could force the Bank of Canada to end its pause and hike interest rates again during one of its meetings over the summer, economists are predicting.
Markets now see 40% chance of a hike next week, 100% chance of another hike by September
Stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter could force the Bank of Canada to end its pause and hike interest rates again during one of its meetings over the summer, economists are predicting.
Gross domestic product, the country’s main gauge on the amount of goods and services changing hands, expanded at a 3.1 per cent annualized pace over the first three months of the year. It’s a figure that blew past Bay Street’s expectations of 2.5 per cent growth and the Bank of Canada’s own 2.3 per cent projection.
Economists have been putting more stock into the potential for a rate hike at some point over the next few months, with some predicting a bump as early as next week in its June 7 meeting.
Markets are now pricing in a 40 per cent chance of a hike next week, up from 28 per cent before the data, Reuters reports, and they now expect an increase of 25 basis points by September.
“It seems likely the Bank of Canada will be seriously considering raising rates next week,” said Royce Mendes, Desjardins head of macro strategy, in a May 31 note. “While they might pass on changing course just yet, the belief that the central bank will further tighten policy this summer is justifiably gaining traction.”
The central bank has said it would only maintain a pause on rate hikes if the economy cooled off in line with its expectations, but the latest reading points to continued strength.
The economics team at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce also said the stronger GDP raises the odds of a hike, but say it’s not a done deal. CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said he expects policymakers will prefer to wait and see more data and revise forecasts rather than raising rates next week.
Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said that patience could be key, given the current economic outlook.
“However, given the uncertain backdrop and the possibility that inflation took a big step down in May, the (Bank of Canada) could opt to remain patient for a bit longer and signal that it’s open to hiking in July if the strength persists,” Porter said in a May 31 note.
The latest data on the economy bolsters Monex Canada foreign exchange analyst Jay Zhao-Murray’s argument that the central bank would have to hike in June.
“A few days after we made that call, Governor Macklem tried to downplay the uncomfortably strong inflation data when asked by a journalist, buying himself a bit of time by suggesting that he would wait for today’s GDP report and then take all of the information together before making a decision,” Zhao-Murray wrote.
“With the final piece of the puzzle also suggesting that the economy has more excess demand than the Bank of Canada thought, the stars are aligned for a resumption in the hiking cycle.”
“We are now at a stage where, should the Bank lack the conviction to act in June, the history books likely won’t look kindly upon the decision,” he added.
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BELGRADE, Serbia – Canada’s Denis Shapovalov is back in the winner’s circle.
The 25-year-old Shapovalov beat Serbia’s Hamad Medjedovic 6-4, 6-4 in the Belgrade Open final on Saturday.
It’s Shapovalov’s second ATP Tour title after winning the Stockholm Open in 2019. He is the first Canadian to win an ATP Tour-level title this season.
His last appearance in a tournament final was in Vienna in 2022.
Shapovalov missed the second half of last season due to injury and spent most of this year regaining his best level of play.
He came through qualifying in Belgrade and dropped just one set on his way to winning the trophy.
Shapovalov’s best results this season were at ATP 500 events in Washington and Basel, where he reached the quarterfinals.
Medjedovic was playing in his first-ever ATP Tour final.
The 21-year-old, who won the Next Gen ATP Finals presented by PIF title last year, ends 2024 holding a 9-8 tour-level record on the season.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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