Economy

OECD head expects ‘sea of red’ for global economy in 2020

Published

4 years ago

June 10, 2020

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is predicting an economic contraction for the global economy this year – including the potential for Canada’s output to sink almost 10 per cent – as governments and households pile on debt due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It’s a sea of red for 2020. Some recovery in 2021, but not enough to go above the level of 2019,” OECD Secretary General Angel Gurría told BNN Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman Wednesday. “It’s that bad.”

“It’s going to be tough for the next 18 months because we believe the recovery is going to be like a U-shape, rather than a V-shape.”

The OECD presented “two equally likely scenarios” in its forecast for the first time, rather than a baseline scenario, amid lingering uncertainty around the virus’s potential future impact.

The Paris-based organization estimates the global economy shrinking either six per cent this year or 7.6 per cent this year. Meanwhile, the OECD sees the Canadian economy contracting by either eight or 9.4 per cent in 2020.

“It’s an open economy, therefore more vulnerable to everything that is going on right now,” Gurría said in reference to Canada.

“But we see that in the case of a second wave, should we have a recurrence of this phenomenon, of course we’d have to maybe look at confining some sectors, some cities, some areas, and therefore, we would have a second impact that would pile up.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau played down the idea of the government releasing its traditional fiscal update when speaking to reporters Tuesday.

“There are so many things that we simply don’t know, that making projections about what our economy could look like six months from now or a year from now would be an exercise in invention and imagination,” Trudeau said.

Gurría acknowledged it is “very difficult” to set projections right now.

“We can only [put forth] as great an effort as we can,” he said.

With respect to its own forecast, Gurría said OECD applied modelling, assumptions and basic fundamentals to present possible future scenarios.

“What we really do not know is whether there will be a recurrence [of new COVID-19 cases],” he said. “What we’re saying is, let’s be extremely prudent in the way we are looking at forecasting, looking at projections going forward because there may be this possibility.”

Source:- BNNBloomberg.ca

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Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

Published

2 days ago

October 21, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

Published

6 days ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

Published

1 week ago

October 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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