OECD hikes its growth forecasts for major economies, but warns recovery fragile | Canada News Media
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OECD hikes its growth forecasts for major economies, but warns recovery fragile

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The OECD headquarters, in Paris, on Sept. 3, 2009.Charles Platiau/Reuters

The global economic outlook has improved from a few months ago as the inflation shock eases, but rising interest rates will keep risks high, the OECD said on Friday, hiking its growth forecasts for major economies.

After growth last year of 3.2 per cent, the world economy is on course to expand 2.6 per cent as central bank tightening takes full effect, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its interim economic outlook.

The Paris-based organization raised its forecast for global growth from 2.2 per cent in its last Economic Outlook in November, citing a decline in energy and food prices and China’s easing of its anti-COVID restrictions.

Looking to next year, global growth was expected to accelerate to 2.9 per cent – compared with a November forecast of 2.7 per cent – as the hit to household incomes from high energy prices faded.

The OECD forecast that inflation in the Group of 20 major economies would fall from 8.1 per cent last year to 5.9 per cent this year and further decline to 4.5 per cent in 2024 – still well above targets despite interest rate hikes by many central banks.

It said the full impact of higher interest rates was hard to gauge, warning that increased stress for borrowers could translate into losses for some banks, citing the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States as an example.

Setting aside turmoil in financial markets following SVB’s failure and continued worries about Swiss lender Credit Suisse, the European Central Bank hiked interest rates by a further half percentage point on Thursday to fight inflation.

The OECD projected that central bank policy rates would peak at 5.25-5.5 per cent in the United States and 4.25 per cent in the euro area and Britain with a decline in inflation possibly allowing for a “mild” easing next year.

The OECD forecast that U.S. economic growth would slow from 1.5 per cent this year to 0.9 per cent next year as higher interest rates cooled demand. With the U.S. labour market holding up better than expected, the forecast for this year was up from 0.5 per cent in November and down from 1.0 per cent for 2024.

Boosted by the easing of anti-COVID measures, the Chinese economy was seen growing 5.3 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024, up from November forecasts for 4.6 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively.

The outlook for the euro area had also improved thanks to a drop in energy prices with the 20-nation bloc expected to see growth this year of 0.8 per cent followed by 1.5 per cent in 2024. The OECD had previously forecast 0.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent growth respectively.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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