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Oil Demand To Rebound Despite Spike In COVID-19 Cases | OilPrice.com

Yousef Alshammari

Dr. Yousef Alshammari is the CEO and Head of Oil Research at CMarkits, London, UK. He is a former Research Fellow at the Organisation of…

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  • US Oil inventories declined by 7.20 million barrels w/w
  • OPEC+ compliance is said to have exceeded 100% in June
  • Angola is said to be unable to compensate for its missed targets until Q4
  • Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have restarted production in the joint neutral zone
  • We see demand averaging 92.33 million bbl/d in Q3 
  • Brent average price in June was $40.78, $0.78 above our forecast 

Despite the continued bearish sentiment, oil markets saw a bit of support over the past week, resulting from the sharp decline in the crude oil inventories as reported by the EIA. Last Thursday, prices Brent hit its highest level since March at $43.23, closing at $42.78, up by 4.11% w/w, while WTI closed at $40.32, up by 4.54% w/w, with a spread of $2.46 which narrowed by $0.07 w/w

Bullish data from the U.S. oil sector 

U.S. commercial crude inventories declined by 7.20 million barrels w/w, standing at 533.5 million barrels while the U.S. SPR attracted 1.7 million barrels w/w standing at 655.4 million barrels. Crude input to U.S. refineries rose by 0.193 mbbl/d w/w reaching 14.03 million bbl/d, refinery runs remain 3.26 million bbl/d lower than they were last year in June. U.S. oil production remains unchanged at 11 million bbl/d, due to the drop in drilling activity.  On the other hand, the EIA report did show some bearish data as gasoline stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels which counters the usual seasonal demand behaviour in the summer and that added more pressure on prices. 

Furthermore, the EIA estimates current US oil demand to have risen to more than 18 million bbl/d from less than 14 million bbl/d in April compared with an average of 20.01 million bbl/d last January. 

Improved macroeconomic data 

Adding to the bullish news, the euro-zone’s economic sentiment rose to 75.7 points this month from 67.5 in May, while all key sectors of the economy in the region showed signs of recovery, which is especially observed in retail trade and services. US labor statistics also reflected additional optimism as the rate of unemployment declined 11.1%, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. In China, factory activity has increased to the highest level Since March, as PMI figures rose, by 0.3, to 50.9 compared with forecasts of 50.4. Related: Oil Price Crash Causes Major Recession In Russia

In the previous week, the drop in prices was not only driven by resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several countries, but also poor refining margins, the resumption of U.S. oil production, and remaining high inventories compared to their 5-year average levels. Current COVID-19 cases have exceeded 11 million confirmed cases with the U.S., India, and Brazil battling to contain the outbreak of the disease. We expect the war between positive economic data and Covid-19 cases is likely to persist in the next few weeks as the demand picture continues to unfold. 

Improved signs of compliance from OPEC+ 

Meanwhile, OPEC+ compliance to its output cut deal is said to have exceeded 100% for the month of June according to data from Energy Intelligence, despite some producers falling behind their targets, mainly Iraq, Nigeria and Angola. The 100% compliance is believed to have been achieved in June due to extra voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and other GCC producers. The Iraqi oil minister was quoted for holding negotiations with companies on oil contracts for fields with high operating costs. This will reduce expenses when cutting oil production leading to enhanced compliance. Compliance for Iraq, nonetheless, is said to be at 100% in June according to data from Energy Intelligence. The problem with Iraq is that it pays companies to invest in its oil industry so it needs to compensate investors for cutting production at low oil prices. 

Currently the West African compliance remains a challenge for the group cohesion. According to data from Energy Intelligence, compliance in June is seen at 68%, for Angola, 15% for Congo, 80% for Nigeria, and 31% for Equatorial Guinea. Angola, in particular, is said to be unable to compensate for its missed targets until Q4 this year. According to OPEC data, Angola has produced 1.28 million bbl/d in May, 100 thousand bbl/d above its target, and it reduced this to 1.24 million bbl/d in June, which is still 60 thousand bbl/d above its target, according to data from Reuters. 

Saudi Arabia, which achieved a compliance level of 140%, is said to have averaged a production of 7.49 million bbl/d in June, compared with 12 million bbl/d in April, according to a statement by the CEO of Saudi Aramco. Both the UAE and Kuwait have followed Saudi Arabia in compliance levels with 120% for UAE, and 112% for Kuwait, in the month of June. Furthermore, Kazakhstan is said to have achieved its compliance commitment for the month of June with a production of 1.297 million bbl/d according to official sources. Kazakhstan will continue to over-comply to compensate for its missing targets in May by making additional cuts between July-September.  Related: Saudi Arabia Hikes Oil Prices For The Third Consecutive Month

In the meantime, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restarted production in the joint neutral zone last week, which has a production capacity of more than 500 thousand bbl/d, 300 thousand in Khafji and 250 thousand bbl/d in Wafra. We expect the resumption of production to be a signal of easing current OPEC+ cuts which is set to ease next August to 7.7. million bbl/d, from a current level of 9.6 million bbl/d. 

Furthermore, the Libyan National Oil Corporation has indicated that its oil production could return to normal levels following a potential agreement on a new oil revenue distribution mechanism among conflicting armed forces. That may remove the current barriers to restarting production, the security of personnel, which if guaranteed will enable resumption of full production. Libyan crude is of a light sweet type, which historically has been in high demand by Mediterranean refiners which increased their imports from West Africa amid the Libyan blockade of exports. 

Our data revision and forecast 

The average monthly price for Brent in June was 40.78, $0.78 above our forecast, while WTI averaged 38.33, $3.33 above our forecast. We continue to see an average price of $43 and $38 for Brent and WTI, respectively, throughout July. 

Furthermore, our demand forecast for the year 2020 has been raised by 9.76 million bbl/d, to average 90.35 million bbl/d. We see average demand in Q3 standing at 92.33 million bbl/d, compared with an average demand of 79.33 million bbl/d in Q2. This is a 9.99 million bbl/d year-on year reduction. Demand in Q4 is seen to rise to an average of 94.33 million bbl/d, yet down by 6.41 million bbl/d y/y.   

By Yousef Alshammari for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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