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Oil drops over 1% on worries about Chinese economy

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Oil prices fell over 1% on Tuesday on sluggish Chinese economic data coupled with fears that Beijing’s unexpected cut in key policy rates was not sufficiently substantial to rejuvenate the country’s sputtering post-pandemic recovery.

Brent crude futures fell $1.32, or 1.5%, to settle at $84.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.52, or 1.8% to $80.99.

Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, have helped to galvanize a rally in prices over the past seven weeks.

Both U.S. crude futures and Brent have fallen for two consecutive sessions as the oil market takes a breath, said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Weighing on sentiment, China’s industrial output and retail sales data on Tuesday showed the economy slowed further last month, intensifying pressure on already faltering growth and prompting authorities to cut key policy rates to bolster economic activity.

When the oil market appears to be comfortable, it is often the case that China is the number one fire douser, throwing a wet blanket over those dreaming of prices north of $90, said John Evans of oil broker PVM. China is the world’s biggest oil importer.

China’s central bank lowered interest rates marginally after the data that highlighted intensifying pressure on the economy, mainly from the property sector, though analysts say the cut was too small to make a meaningful difference.

There are concerns China could struggle to meet its growth target of about 5% for the year without more fiscal stimulus.

On Tuesday Barclays cut its forecast for China’s 2023 growth in gross domestic product to 4.5%, citing a faster than expected deterioration in the housing market.

Also adding to risk-off sentiment, an analyst at Fitch Ratings warned that U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, could be downgraded if the agency further cuts its assessment of the operating environment for the industry, according to a report from CNBC on Tuesday.

“When the banking sector is shaky, oil gets shakier because it is so sensitive to interest rates, loans and the general health of the economy,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

On a brighter note, refinery throughput in China rose in July 17.4% from a year earlier as refiners kept output elevated to meet demand for domestic summer travel and to cash in on high regional profit margins by exporting fuel.

Investors are now awaiting data on U.S. crude inventories. Seven analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 11. [EIA/S]

The industry report is due later on Tuesday, and U.S. government data is due on Wednesday.

 

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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