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Oil heads higher as Ukraine tensions escalate — price depends on what happens next – CBC.ca

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Oil prices are rapidly heading toward $100 US a barrel, but analysts say the chances of crude smashing that threshold greatly depends on what happens next in Ukraine.

The potential for a war in eastern Europe has made energy prices volatile over investor fears that conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt supplies. Russia produces 10 per cent of global oil supply.

On Wednesday, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate price came close to $94 US per barrel in the morning’s trading, and many experts have suggested it will go higher.

“I think based on the momentum we’re seeing, unless we see a major pullback in Russian aggression, we likely will top $100 a barrel,” said Rory Johnston, managing director and market economist at Toronto-based Price Street Inc.

“But as of yet, this does seem to be purely geopolitical risk pricing, rather than any immediate fear of an actual loss of barrels.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen here chairing a meeting with members of the Security Council in Moscow on Monday. Russia produces 10 per cent of global oil supply. (Alexey Nikolsky/Kremlin/Reuters)

Investors have been closely watching developments in Ukraine, where Russia has amassed troops for a potential invasion. The U.S. and other western nations have already responded with sanctions — driving investor concerns that Russia could respond by halting oil exports — and Germany withdrew a document needed for certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.

Johnston said it’s highly unlikely the Ukraine crisis will result in a physical loss of barrels to the market, but if that were to happen, it would be “an extremely big deal.”

In the worst-case scenario, he said — such as an all-out armed conflict between Russia and NATO forces — oil prices could skyrocket.

“Say we lost half of Russian production, which again I think is very unlikely,” Johnston said. “But yeah, $130, $150 — pick a number in the hundreds and you could very easily justify it.”

Patrick de Haan — head of petroleum analysis for gas price information website GasBuddy.com — said the effects of tensions in Ukraine have already affected gasoline prices in Canada, with the average price at the pump steadily increasing over the last few weeks. On Wednesday, according to GasBuddy.com, the average retail gasoline price in Canada was 156.2 cents per litre.

“We do expect prices to continue to rise throughout the spring and potentially summer,” de Haan said in a email, adding prices typically rise in the spring anyway and the situation in eastern Europe is expected to exacerbate that trend.

“All of these factors could contribute to gas prices potentially increasing 15 to 30 cents per litre between now and the end of May, or more depending on the outcome of the Russia situation,” he said.

A TD Economics report Wednesday said the economic fallout from the Ukraine crisis will be “highly path dependent on what comes next” and the scope of any further Russian incursion into Ukraine. TD laid out two scenarios — one in which oil prices spike but then reverse within a quarter or two.

In a second, more severe scenario, TD says the energy shock could be accompanied by a “global confidence shock” that drags equity markets down and could impact Canadian economic growth in 2022.

A pumpjack works at a well head on an oil and gas installation in Alberta in this file photo. The North American benchmark price for oil has climbed to above $90 US per barrel in recent weeks. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

On Wednesday, flights to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv appeared unavailable through Air Canada’s website until March 9. The Montreal-based airline does not fly directly to Ukraine, but offers flights to Kyiv and the port city of Odessa via Star Alliance partner airlines such as Lufthansa and Swiss International Air, which have both halted trips to the embattled country.

Air Canada said last week it will allow customers flying to Ukraine to change their trip with no fees.

Toronto-based gold miner Kinross Gold Corp., which has operations in Russia, said its operations are unaffected by the U.S. sanctions announced Tuesday.

Kinross, which operates the Kupol mine in the Chukotka region in the northeastern corner of Russia, noted it has successfully operated in Russia for more than 25 years and has previously managed through similar situations.

In addition to the Kupol mine, Kinross has the Udinsk project in Russia.

Kinross, which also has mines and projects in the U.S., Brazil, Mauritania, Chile and Ghana, said it expects about 13 per cent of its global production this year to come from Russia.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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