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Oil now a 'bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,' analyst says – CNBC

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Red Cross medics measure the temperature of participants of the 178th Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria, on March 5, 2020.

Alex Halada | Getty Images

Oil prices plunged last week as OPEC and its allies failed to reach an agreement on production cuts, and as prices look set to continue cratering, some are warning about the impact on the broader economy.

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added.

Crisafulli noted that oil is “critical” to the U.S. economy. Many people are employed by the industry, and highly leveraged oil and gas companies are key to the fixed income market.

“The sector is like the ‘FANG’ of credit, esp. high yield, given the enormous amount of debt it has outstanding,” he said.

Oil prices have been suppressed since the coronavirus outbreak stoked fears about a slowdown in demand for crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude has dropped 32% this year, while international benchmark Brent crude is down 31%. 

Many on the Street expected OPEC to step in with deeper production cuts in an effort to prop up prices. But after talks collapsed Friday — OPEC ally Russia refused to agree to the proposed additional output reductions of 1.5 million barrels per day —  there could now also be issues on the supply side.

The 14-member cartel and its allies, known as OPEC+, also failed to reach an agreement on extending the current production cuts. This means that on April 1, when the current agreement expires, each nation effectively has free rein over how much crude it pumps.

On Saturday Saudi Arabia announced massive discounts to its official selling prices for April, and the nation could theoretically pump up to its capacity of 12.5 million barrels per day. 

“As from 1 April we are starting to work without minding the quotas or reductions which were in place earlier,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Friday at the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, before adding, “but this does not mean that each country would not monitor and analyze market developments.” 

On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid 10.07% — its worst day since November 2014 — to settle at a more than three-year low of $41.28 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude sank 9.44% to settle at $45.27 per barrel, its lowest since June 2017. 

Both WTI and Brent are currently in bear market territory — down 38% and 40%, respectively, from recent highs — and analysts say prices still have further to fall.

Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent falling to $35 per barrel in the second quarter, with WTI trading as low as $30 per barrel. The firm’s prior forecast had Brent at $57.50 and WTI at $52.50.

Some are even more bearish. 

″$20 oil in 2020 is coming,” Ali Khedery, formerly Exxon’s senior Middle East advisor and now CEO of U.S.-based strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, wrote Sunday on Twitter. “Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc – may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19.”

That said, Crisafulli contended that a price war this time around “shouldn’t be as bleak as 2015” when Brent prices collapsed to $28 in January 2016, since this time around Saudi Arabia “isn’t the aggressor,” and also because the kingdom “can’t tolerate an oil depression.”

“The country’s fiscal breakeven oil prices remain very high, Saudi Aramco is now a public company, and MBS’s grip on power isn’t yet absolute,” he said. “As a result, the gov’t won’t be so cavalier in sending oil back into the $30s (or even lower).”

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Natasha Turak contributed reporting. 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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