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Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traditional Fundamentals Point toward Sideways-to-Lower Trade – FX Empire

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil finished sharply lower last week after hitting a multi-month high earlier in the week. Once again the rally was fueled by speculators betting on a supply disruption because of an event. Once again they were crushed when supply was not disrupted.

Many analysts continue to report on the past, but few are willing to tell it like it is. Both U.S. and Brent crude are trading lower for the year as traders reverted back to the traditional fundamentals. What we saw last week between the U.S. and Iran were one and done events. No oil spilled. No oil production facilities destroyed. No oil fields set on fire. No sustained rally.

Last week, March WTI crude oil settled at $58.99, down $3.83 or -6.10% and March Brent crude oil closed at $64.98, down 3.62 or -5.57%.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Inventories Report

Crude oil prices were also hit hard on Wednesday after U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week and gasoline inventories surged by their most in a week in four years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. The report offset Tuesday’s slightly bullish numbers released by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

The EIA reported that crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week-ended January 3 to 431.10 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.6 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks surprised as well, rising by 9.1 million barrels in the week to 251.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.7 million-barrel rise. That was the largest one-week gain in gasoline inventories since January 2016. Gasoline supplied over the last four weeks was 0.4% lower than the same period a year ago due to weak demand.

Weekly Forecast

We’re likely to continue to see heightened volatility and overreactions to the upside if the tensions in the Middle East escalate, but a bull market trend is not likely to form unless there is an event that leads to a substantial reduction in supply.

You have to remember that OPEC and its allies are currently cutting production by 1.7 million barrels of oil per day and look were prices are. If there was a substantial disruption in supply, we’re likely to see another speculative surge to the upside, but OPEC+ would then flood the market with the oil they have been holding back. And as prices rise, it wouldn’t take long for U.S. companies to start producing at record levels.

One thing that stood out last week that may have been missed was the jump in gasoline inventories in both the API and EIA weekly inventories reports. Traders cited the lack of demand for the high levels. This may lead to a rise in U.S. crude inventories.

Gains in the crude oil market could be capped if inventories start to rise. But before you get too bearish, the OPEC+ cuts and the hope of increased demand due to the US-China trade deal are likely to be supportive.

This all adds up to a rangebound market. Prices are very likely to retreat to pre-Christmas levels where they sat for 5 weeks before volatility resurfaced.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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