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Oil price plunges to lowest level since 1986 as world drowns in oversupply – CBC.ca

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The economic slowdown caused by COVID-19 is pushing oil prices down to their lowest level in more than 30 years.

The most current futures contract for West Texas Intermediate fell by $8 US a barrel on Monday, going as low as $10.10 US in a plunge of more than 40 per cent.

If that level holds until the end of the day, it will be the lowest closing price for WTI since March 1986.

The oil price is especially volatile on Monday because it’s the last trading day for oil contracted to be delivered in May. Traders are scrambling to settle their positions before actual delivery of the oil gets finalized on Tuesday, at which point oil for June delivery will be the benchmark price.

The contract for oil to be delivered next month is plunging because anyone caught owning it as of the end of business on Monday will have to find a place to store the oil soon, a task that’s getting harder and harder of late.

The price is going down because there’s very little demand for oil, and the world is running out of places to store the excess. Storage tanks at the U.S. hub of Cushing, Okla., are now holding 55 million barrels of crude, which is their highest level since 2018.

Storage on land is filling up everywhere, so some producers have taken to storing their excess oil at sea, renting tankers to float aimlessly to store the crude until a higher price or buyer can be found. Rates for the biggest oil tankers have soared as producers scramble to secure space to keep the crude they don’t know what else to do with.

“Floating storage remains the only outlet for a mismatched production and consumption backdrop,” Evercore shipping analyst Jonathan Chappell said in a note to clients last week.

The going rate for the biggest oil tankers in the world hit $165,000 a day this weekend, Chappell calculates, but despite that up-front cost, “it is difficult to envision a scenario where floating storage is not economic and required over the coming months.”

As supply vastly outpaces demand, oil companies have started storing excess oil in floating tankers with no destination, waiting for prices to rebound. (Marcelo del Pozo/Bloomberg)

That’s because there’s not enough demand for the stuff that’s already out there. The oil cartel known as OPEC tried to address that earlier this month by promising to pump 10 million fewer barrels of oil every day, but even that huge cut isn’t enough to offset the corresponding drop in demand.

Lockdowns, travel bans and the general economic slowdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced demand for oil by about 25 million barrels a day, so OPEC turning off the spigots by 10 million barely makes a dent.

“If your bathtub is about to overflow and you turn down the tap a little, it will still overflow,” oil analyst Bjarne Schieldrop with SEB Research said Monday.

“The oil price is now ordering producers to halt production and it is happening at high speed and in an unorderly fashion. This is creating damage to production and some of it will never come back online again.”

Canada’s oil price plunges

Canadian oil producers are among those in danger of turning off the taps if these prices persist. The type of oil from Canada’s oilsands is known as Western Canadian Select and it typically trades at a discount of between $10 and $15 to WTI, because it is harder to transport and refine.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney tweeted on Monday that the price of WCS actually dipped into negative territory overnight — meaning Canadian oil companies are functionally having to pay to get rid of their product.

Raymond James analyst Jeremy McCrea told CBC News in an interview that he expects the price of WCS will seesaw above and below the $0 level for a little while yet.

“We did see WCS go negative this morning,” he said in an interview. “As we look forward into the next month it does seem to get a little bit better but with storage so full and getting more full by the day it doesn’t look too optimistic over the next couple months.”

Hedge fund executive Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital said negative prices make sense in the current climate. 

“There is no limit to the downside to prices when inventories and pipelines are full,” he tweeted. “Negative prices are possible.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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