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Oil Prices Climb On A Bounty Of Bullish Catalysts | OilPrice.com


Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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Oil prices appear to be on an unstoppable march toward $100, with Ukraine sending troops into Ukraine, OPEC failing to hit its production targets, and industry CEOs predicting still higher prices.

– Oil prices rose to their highest level since 2014 after Moscow recognized the independence of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and moved its troops into eastern Ukraine, aggravating European supply concerns. 

– Spot Brent prices have been trading above the $100 per barrel since last week, now even ICE Brent futures seem to be climbing increasingly closer to that threshold. 

– Backwardation in ICE Brent prices is at the highest in more than a decade, with the 1-month spread between the April and May contracts rising to $2.40 per barrel.

– The backwardation does not only impact oil markets, gasoil futures are just as tight amid globally low inventories. 

Market Movers

– US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) signed a deal with the Papua New Guinea government on the development of the long-stalled P’nyang gas field, agreeing on a 63% government take. 

– As elevated crude prices have provided Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) with windfall profits, the Saudi national oil company is in talks with Chinese companies to further invest in its downstream sector. 

– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly looking to sell its assets in Equatorial Guinea, acquired as part of its $13 billion takeover of Noble Energy in 2020, seeking to garner $1 billion from the sale. 

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Just as oil industry CEOs have gathered in London for the International Petroleum Week, reiterating their bullish vision for oil prices, Russia’s foreign policy took center stage and added another layer of upside risks by moving its army into eastern Ukraine. Gas prices shot up in Europe and oil prices followed, driven by concerns that supply disruptions from Russia or potential sanctions packages could make oil markets even tighter than they are today. Brent crude hit $99 early on Friday morning before falling back.

Germany Halts Nord Stream 2. The German government halted the certification process of Nord Stream 2 on the back of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, sending TTF spot prices up by 10% on the day, to €80 per MWh ($29 per mmBtu).

OPEC+ Compliance Continues To Be A Problem. According to media reports, OPEC+ compliance with its oil production targets rose to 129% in January, up 7 percentage points from December 2021, with underperformance being even more prevalent for the OPEC-10, standing at 133% last month. Related: OPEC Is Ready To Embrace $100 Oil

US LNG Feedgas Flows Hit Record Highs. Just as Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass is set to start commercial production, though only 4 out of 18 liquefaction trains are operational, US LNG feed gas flows have been trending at record levels of 13 bcf per day.

EU Mulls Compulsory Gas Storage Fill. The European Union is considering whether to mandate member states to fill their natural gas storage capacities as Brussels wants to establish minimum gas storage requirements to avoid this year’s inventory tightness amid low Russian gas supplies. 

TotalEnergies Marks Another Major Suriname Discovery. French major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) and its partner APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) have made a significant oil discovery in Block 58, offshore Suriname, with its Krabdagu-1 well encountering a net pay of 90 meters, the fifth major find in the South American country.

Qatar Confirms Little Maneuvering Capacity. According to the Qatari energy minister Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar can divert only 10-15% of its exports to customers without contracts, saying that it is ‘almost impossible’ to supplant Russian gas supplies into Europe. 

Beaumont Refinery Lockout Finally Ends. Union workers locked out of their jobs for 10 months voted to accept an updated contract offer from ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), allowing the 370,000 b/d Beaumont, TX refinery to avoid a wildcat strike and return to normal operations. 

Canada Stops Funding Trans Mountain Amid Ballooning Costs. Canada’s government announced that it would stop further public funding for the prospective 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain oil pipeline after its costs had surged 70% to $17 billion and its completion date shifted nine months to Q3 2023. 

Somalia is Not Yet Ready for Exploration. Somalia’s Prime minister clashed with his own Energy Ministry and disavowed an oil exploration deal signed with US-based upstream firm Coastline Exploration, arguing that no deals can be signed in the pre-election period. 

Kuwait Launches LNG Terminal. Kuwait has finally started full operations at its 22 million tons per year Al-Zour LNG import facility, eight months after it received its first cargo there, helping the country cope with increasing electricity demand. 

Pentagon to Build Up Lithium and Rare Earths Stockpiles. The US Department of Defense is reportedly planning to boost its strategic stockpiles of rare earth minerals, lithium, and cobalt to reduce its dependence on China, with domestic production remaining rudimental. 

Sri Lanka Runs Out of Fuel. Attesting to the ongoing travails of emerging economies with little foreign exchange reserves, Sri Lanka has launched an emergency diesel tender as the country is left with only three days worth of gasoil consumption. 

Nickel and Aluminium Feel the Russian Heat. Prices of nickel and aluminum soared to multi-year highs on concerns over supply disruption from Russia, with the latter reaching a ten-year high, trading at $24,500 per metric tonne on Tuesday.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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