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Oil Prices Could Test $115 If Hamas-Israel War Escalates Into Regional Conflict

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Weakening global economic growth could keep oil prices below $90 per barrel this year and next, barring a major escalation in the Hamas-Israel war that could spill over the Middle East and threaten supply, which could send oil to above $100 and testing $115 a barrel, analysts said in the monthly Reuters poll.

Brent Crude prices are expected to average $84.80 per barrel this year and $86.62 next year, a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and economists found.

So far this year, Brent Crude prices have averaged $82.60 a barrel.

The estimates in the October poll are only slightly higher compared to the forecasts in September for Brent averaging $84.09 per barrel this year and $86.45 next year, made before the Hamas attack on Israel.

Many analysts see slowing global economic growth as the main bearish factor for oil and don’t see prices holding above $90 a barrel for long, in case the Hamas-Israel conflict is contained and doesn’t involve other state or non-state actors in the Middle East.

But the analysts acknowledge in this month’s poll that the situation in the Middle East could be a major driver of oil prices surging to above $100 per barrel and even testing $115 a barrel if a supply disruption occurs.

Still, even if oil were to hit $100, most of the experts polled by Reuters don’t see prices remaining in the triple digits for long due to downward pressure from slowing economic growth.

Commenting on oil prices early on Tuesday, Saxo Bank’s analysts said,

“Crude oil’s war premium has been erased after Monday’s sharp drop on growing hopes the Israel-Hamas [war] will remain contained, and not spread to Iran, the market’s biggest worry throughout this conflict.”

“Also weighing on prices is the short-term demand outlook which is showing signs of softening.”

Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, strategists at ING, also believe that the most immediate threat from the new conflict in the Middle East is a possible reduction of Iran’s oil exports if the U.S. tightens the sanction enforcement.

“In the absence of supply disruptions from the region, it is difficult to see a significant and sustained upside in prices,” ING’s Patterson and Manthey said.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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